New England

[Vepres]

Well we can assume that, short of a GOP landslide, Maryland, Delware, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont are all solid Dem. Now for the remaining states:

New Hampshire - Given the right candidate, like Mitt Romney or Jon Huntsman Jr., I see this as the Republican's best opportunity to win a north-eastern state. The state has a strong libertarian streak, so it's voters are turned off by hard-core social conservatives or neo-cons. That said, I expect to be at best equal to the popular vote; though it will most likely be around +1-3 Dem. Palin, Huckabee, and most southern republicans would be slaughtered here.

Maine - To win just Maine's 2nd district would be similar to New Hampshire, though probably a little more difficult. The state as a whole would be challenge even for a Republican who is relatively strong in the north-east. Mitt Romney would probably get a popular vote +5-7 Dem result, while Palin or Huckabee would lose by 20+ points.

New Jersey - If the Republicans win in 2012, I think this may be the surprise win state, much like Indiana was to Obama. Though they have been trending left, they have a history of moderate republicanism combined with an unpopular democratic governor. I think Romney could, if he runs as the businessman social moderate that he probably really is, instead of what he did in 2008, he could get the margin down to PV +4-6 Dem, perhaps even closer. Palin and Huckabee would, again, be slaughtered.

Pennsylvania - I don't know about this state. It is one of the classic swing states, yet a Republican hasn't won there since George H.W. Bush's moderate landslide in 1988. The state seems to be trending Dem, though we'll have to wait for the 2012 elections to be sure. The GOP always does well in the rural areas, and McCain did surprisingly well in the counties surrounding Pittsburgh, but they always seem to be trounced in Philly and it's suburbs. Mitt Romney may do OK here, similar probably to his performance in Maine or New Jersey, but I just don't see the state being much less democratic than the previously mentioned states. I know the numbers say differently, but my gut tells me it will be tough for any Republican to win here on the presidential level, particularly against Obama. Palin and Huckabee have a chance, but I suspect it will turn out much like it did last year, they will push hard for it but end up losing it by PV + 3-5 Dem.

Only a Republican with strong suburban and/or Urban (relative to Bush, McCain, and many southerners) can win any of these states. If Mitt Romney campaigns as the guy we saw in the Massachusetts governors race, he could potentially secure majorities in most suburbs and close the large gap in the urban areas.

By the way, I don't think Romney is an amazing candidate with Reagan-like appeal, but if he campaigns correctly, I could see him gaining respectable winning margins in suburbs. A few other candidates with this appeal are (possibly) Jon Huntsman Jr., Charlie Crist, or one of the Maine senators (though they wouldn't probably get the nomination). What all these candidates have in common (and Mitt Romney pre-2008 campaign) is that they aren't very socially conservative, and rarely discuss social issues. This is key to winning back the north-east.