Way too optimistic. Obama's numbers are undoubtedly on the upswing but I have a hard time believing that he beats Huckabee and Romney by double digits while the economy is still in such a sluggish state.
What is to say that the economy will be in so sluggish a state in 2012? It is less sluggish than it was two years ago, when many people thought that we had an ongoing replay of the 1929-1933 meltdown.
I am not surprised at how the President matches up to Sarah Palin. People are beginning to recognize her for what she is. At this point I could see her doing as badly as Landon '36, Goldwater '64, McGovern '72, or Mondale '84 if she were the Republican nominee. Her rhetoric has become an object of ridicule. Hint: the money goes elsewhere. She can't raise enough money to offset the power of the 527 organizations.