2017 British Columbia election

[lilTommy]

I was pretty surprised four years ago when Libs won another government. With a less flawed candidate Horgan and the education crisis this should put Neoliberal government to an end?

You would think
The BCNDP is taking a different approach from last election; a more social democratic, solidly progressive plan and Horgan is considered more likable and with zero tarnished rep compared to Dix. About the same number of MLAs on both sides are not running again. This time around there are deeper problems with Education, Transit, Housing and Resources/Energy and government spending/party funding.

Polling this year (normal polling cautions) is mixed; NDP led two and Liberals led two. Polling will be even less reliable then before, here are two polls a month apart:
August:
BCLiberal - 38%
BCNDP - 29%
BCGreen - 16%
BCConservative - 15%

September:
BCNDP - 38%
BCLiberal - 33%
BCGreen - 16%
BCConservative - 14%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/41st_British_Columbia_general_election

[lilTommy]

The BCNDP has proven it can win Liberal ridings, but at By-elections. Thye've had a very hard time retaining those come election time which they need to do.
The BCNDP campaign is already much better from the planning, communicating and policy perspective, so that should help.
The one thing we know is that the Green and Conservative vote is always over-represented in the pre-election polling. They both will drop by realistically half those numbers (Greens have polled 8% in the last two elections) Where the Green vote goes, is usually a good indicator of who will win.

The NDP can win with 40% (1991), the NDP has won the election but lost the popular vote (1996). The liberals have won the last three (2005, 09, 13) with 44-45% and the NDP from 39-42%; the Popular vote Province wide will be close. For the NDP(Liberals too) it will be a game of strategy and targeting about a 15 seats with laser focus in order to win. (they really on need 10)

[lilTommy]

Union support is layered for the NDP and not guaranteed in BC, anywhere for that matter.  Just look at the last federal, some unions were strategic (vote to replace Harper) others were pro-NDP.
BC Building Trades and the Steelworkers are dominated by construction jobs, they are being lured in by Kinder Morgan and Site C. with the NDP taking an opposition to those proposals that is going to cause friction. But to say this is throwing the blue-collar workers under the bus is not true since you totally discount the fact the the NDP is planning a massive investment in infrastructure that they estimate could create 43K jobs.

The BC Federation of Labour is actively and aggressively going to campaign for the NDP:
http://thetyee.ca/News/2016/12/01/BC-Fed-Campaign-to-Elect-NDP/

Horgan is trying to balance big ideas that benefit workers like raising the minimum wage (which Seattle's experience is showing is a true success) and public childcare with job creation and more bread and butter affordability issues
http://thetyee.ca/News/2016/11/30/Horgan-Appeals-To-Workers/

I can't really comment on the NDP being taken over by enviro's but the BC greens are a serious threat, and that relates to my comment above about the balance. BUT I don't think that someone like Craig Keating could be described as a hard-core enviro? he seems rather the moderate type.

In ON last election, the party's lack of big ideas, bolder plans, bolder progressive ideas (it was more populist progressive then truely social democratic) cost the party 3 seats in Toronto. The balance was not there last election so while the party won 3 seats outside of TO they lost 3 in the city... and potential other urban areas.

[lilTommy]

Have analyzed all 87 BC ridings... but I will zero in on just one Van Isle provincial seat for 2017 (5 similar provincial seats/dynamics on Van Isle).

And that riding is Cowichan Valley. 2013 results:

BC NDP: 40.1%
BC Lib: 34.9%
BC Green: 19.2%
BC Con: 4.6%

This seat has always been a BC NDP stronghold historically.

Now the BC Cons are leaderless and won't have a leader for the first time, during a BC election, since the year 1903. Along with infighting and internal party lawsuits as well as the fact that the BC Cons are insolvent, I doubt that they will even run any candidates in 2017 since the 1903 election as well.

With data to suggest that former BC Con voters would almost en masse vote BC Lib (Kootenay East in 2009/2013 is a good example), the BC Libs would have likely taken the BC Con vote here in 2013, which would have resulted in a very marginal BC NDP (40.1%) to BC Lib (39.5%) win in 2013 - a slim 0.6% margin.

Now incumbent BC NDP MLA Bill Routley has stepped down and it will be an open seat without any "incumbent effect". Honestly, I think Routley saw the writing on the wall and stepped down as a result.

As well, I know for a fact that both the BC Greens and BC Libs are targeting this seat. The BC Greens have a strong 19.2% base to already start out with:

BC Greens: running high profile Area B Director for the Cowichan Valley Regional District Sonia Furstenau. Sonia Furstenau has received major media coverage over the past few years involving the Shawnigan Lake fiasco;

BC Libs: running 2013 candidate Steve Housser (former CBC TV reporter) and they have already been on the ground campaigning on the doorsteps;

BC NDP: nomination meeting in January and 4 candidates in running - local fed NDP riding prez, local NDP constituency association official, another NDP-linked candidate as well as a fourth;

Nevertheless, the BC Greens Furstenau is the highest profile candidate running in that riding and is also running on a major issue in the riding. And unlike the 2013 fringe BC Greens under invisible Jane Sterk, Weaver always grabs the media spotlight. And again, some media pundits expect Weaver to "win" the 2017 leader's debate, which will result in big "mo" and media attention for the BC Greens.

With other "CATI" data points that I have seen as well, even six months out I cannot see the BC NDP holding the riding of Cowichan Valley in 2017.

I highly suspect that either the BC Greens or BC Libs will take this seat in 2017. Again, overall 5 seats akin to the Cowichan Valley dynamics are extant on Van Isle, which is still always a harder region to predict seats for than either BC's interior or Metro Vancouver.

I think you have the BCNDP info wrong?, 5 candidates and Jan 15th nomination. Unless you have something more updated?

http://localeye.ca/2016/09/07/ndp-nomination-race-begins/

NDP candidates look to be: "... Lori Iannidinardo is the long-serving CVRD director for Cowichan Bay; Tim McGonigle is a five-term councillor for the Town of Lake Cowichan (and alternate CVRD director); and Debra Toporowski is a councillor on the Cowichan Tribes band council. Two others know their way around a campaign: Leanne Finlayson is a constituency assistant for MP Alistair MacGregor, and Georgia Collins, the development coordinator for the Inclusive Leadership Co-op"

[lilTommy]

Mainstreet Poll 3/11-12
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/despite-campaign-finance-controversy-liberals-ndp-gain/

Decided/Leaning
NDP - 40%
BCL - 36%
Green - 13%
Con - 11%
... Looks at the trend since Feb, the NDP is ticking up every poll (37%, 38%, 39%, 40%) The BCL are static. NDP leads in VanIsd, GV; BCL leads "Rest of BC" BCL still have the strongest voter strength at 70% NDP not far behind with 63%, Green the weakest 45% (this is good news for the NDP since the Green second choice is NDP 45% vs BCL 16%) Interesting here is that the Conservative second choice is showing mostly Green 40%, NDP 28%, BCL 19%. The NDP also leads in every age bracket. Grain of salt polling.

Interestingly in regards to the Ironworkers Liberal endorsement, looks like there is a members movement against this, actual members, workers are not happy or supportive of the BCL endorsement. 3/25 we will see if there is a significant membership push to overturn this or making a competing endorsement for the NDP (or no one). But interesting infighting between Union executive and the membership. 

http://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/mike-smyth-ironworkers-fight-their-own-union-over-liberal-endorsement

[lilTommy]

I'm still seeing no reporting on the alleged story on Chak Au.  I'm more than a little suspicious that that post was deliberate 'fake news' by Lotuslander.  If that is the case, I hope the moderator here finally bans Lotuslander.

The article on CBC http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/chak-au-attack-ads-1.4061606 is saying the opposite, that Au is being targted as SUPPORTING "...for drug injection sites, gender neutral bathrooms, encourages sex education for young children and supports same sex marriage."

I also Follow Spencer Herbert Chandra and he posted about this...
"Had a great meeting this morning to discuss our common fight against racist stereotypes, homophobic, and transphobic discrimination with Chak Au who is running to be an MLA in Richmond, and Morgane Oger who is running in Vancouver False Creek. On May 9 we can elect a government that truly values our province's diversity, and actively supports all of our right to be who we are free of hate and discrimination."
In a reply to someone who asked about Au's positions "...I was referring to the attack ads running saying the NDP had ruined the east side because we support LGBT people which made false claims about him, which is where the story originated. I met him today and was comfortable with what he told me. But then everyone has to judge for themselves, and I don't speak Cantonese so I can't speak to what you saw, only what he and I discussed this morning. Thanks for your comments and support! I'm focussd on serving the people of the West End and Coal Harbour as you know. I reached out to him to see if there was truth to the online comments."
"He was very clear to me that he supports same sex marriage, adoption, and trans human rights to name a few areas we agree on. I believe he is doing media on this soon which hopefully helps clear the air on this."
... we will see.

[lilTommy]

The greens are surging across the province. Would love for them to prevent a majority for whoever gets reelected. We need a shakeup.

In case of a hung assembly depending on the Greens, would they be more likely to strike a deal with the NDP or the Liberals ? Has it been discussed as a possibility in the campaign ?

Greens are still the least committed to vote Green and overwhelmingly favour the NDP as their second choice; But this is good polling numbers from them to start, can it last? The NDP and Liberals are about stable (even on VanIsland the NDP only dropped 1 point), the green vote (in this poll) looks to be bumped up by the crash of the Conservatives?

BCLiberals seem to be the most eager for Greens to win, but policy wise would the Greens no favour the NDP?

[lilTommy]

I am almost certain the Greens will not actually get what they're polling at. Close elections have a tendency to depress third party turnout.

I agree. If the average of the final polls has them at 18% - i expect they will be at 14-15%...in the last three BC elections final polls had the Greens around 12-13% and they wound up at 8%

BUT... where does this vote go? Would this bloated Green vote, say by 6-8% parked, translate? will this benefit the Liberals, the NDP or will it just not show up. Greens heavily preferenced the NDP, so is the NDP vote effectively under-polled by say 4%?

[lilTommy]

I think  a few ridings are so close the advances might matter;

Courtney-Comox (9 votes, NDP)
Maple Ridge - Mission (120 votes, NDP)
Coquitlam - Burke Mountain (170 votes, BCL)
Richmond - Queensborough (263 votes, BCL)
Vancouver-False Creek (560 votes, BCL)

So... if absentee change these ridings and swing NDP they have 44, Swing BCL they have 45. Both could then govern alone no?

I think most other were now around the 1000 vote range difference so might not be in play.

I think the Greens are in a tough spot now; Policy wise its clear they have much more in common with the NDP. BUT Weaver and I assume even Horgan don't much like each other.  

[lilTommy]

I think  a few ridings are so close the advances might matter;

Courtney-Comox (9 votes, NDP)
Maple Ridge - Mission (120 votes, NDP)
Coquitlam - Burke Mountain (170 votes, BCL)
Richmond - Queensborough (263 votes, BCL)
Vancouver-False Creek (560 votes, BCL)

So... if advances change these ridings and swing NDP they have 44, Swing BCL they have 45. Both could then govern alone no?

I think most other were now around the 1000 vote range difference so might not be in play.

Only absentee ballots are left, advance ballots are already counted. Typically there are only a few hundred absentee ballots per riding so only Comox realistically could flip - but note the NDP won absentees there in 2013.

Thanks, meant absentee... so at best Commox-Courtesy and maybe Maple Ridge - Mission if there were a larger number of absentee. Looks like in 2013 in Comox-Courtney there were about 1600? https://twitter.com/DarcyRiddell

[lilTommy]

Another note; 3 of the 4 NDP losses; Columbia River-Revelstoke, Cowichan Valley and Skeena are all riding's where the incumbent NDP MLA did not run again. Food for though, would the NDP have held these had the incumbents run again?

[lilTommy]

If the seat count stays as is, the diversity of the two Caucus look like this: (feel free to verify, I eye-balled it)

BCNDP - 41
Women - 19, 46%
Visibly Minority - 12, 29%
LGBT - 4, 10%

BCLiberal - 43
Women - 13, 30%
Visible Minority - 5, 12%
Physical Disability - 1, 2%

People can discuss the NDP's internal nomination process's but its hard to argue with the results when about half the MLAs elected are women and almost half come from minority communities.  

[lilTommy]

If the seat count stays as is, the diversity of the two Caucus look like this: (feel free to verify, I eye-balled it)

BCNDP - 41
Women - 19, 46%
Visibly Minority - 12, 29%
LGBT - 4, 10%

BCLiberal - 43
Women - 13, 30%
Visible Minority - 5, 12%
Physical Disability - 1, 2%

People can discuss the NDP's internal nomination process's but its hard to argue with the results when about half the MLAs elected are women and almost half come from minority communities.  

I was trying to count up who was LGBT in the NDP caucus. I could think of Chandra Herbert, Farnsworth, Elmore...and who is the fourth one?

Nicholas Simons, was very open but low key about it when he had a short- lived run for leader in 2011 (dropped out to endorse Horgan)

[lilTommy]

WOW...

Popular Vote:
BCL - 40.36%
NDP - 40.28%

Also, looks like the best results for the BC Conservatives was... Courtney-Comox, with 7.55%

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09_result.html

[lilTommy]

Northern Vancouver Island and the Coast isn't that different from the Interior.  Both the NDP and the B.C  Liberals should figure out why they can win in one area but not the other.

That just feels wrong?   Maybe someone with more local understanding can answer this... but Northern Vancouver Island, and the Coast have voted NDP since 72 most riding's going NDP, save 86 which had more mixed results.
The interior has a swing to it, When the NDP won (72,91,96) they won over much of the interior (Kootenays, Thompson, north Fraser, Cariboo) with the exception of the Okanagan which has been pretty solid SC/BCL

[lilTommy]

If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?

Not as high as you would think. They will probably end up going with a referendum (doing it unilaterally through the legislature may prove too unpopular with the public) which will either be held at the same time as the next election or if held before, will probably fail. Of course, if its held on its own, there is a better chance of it passing (look at the PEI referendum), as most people who end up voting against electoral reform don't care enough to come out to vote in an off-year election. The big caveat would be that an off-year referendum may end up also being a "referendum" on the NDP-Green government, which could very well be unpopular at the time.

We're also assuming that the referendum with have FPTP as an option. If the BCNDP-Greens play this right, and they should! this is the best chance for this, the referendum will be one of what other option do you support. The question should be which system should BC move to? make this a choice between say made in BC versions of MMP and STV (STV has received over 57% in 2005 and 40% in 2009 referendums). This guarantees the province moves to a form of PR. Both parties want this, so i expect something to happen soon as soon as Clark resigns or is defeated.

[lilTommy]

A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.

Doubtful. Losing corporate donations will cripple the Liberal Party.

Speaking from experience of PC Alberta, the BC Libs should be okay if they have a strong small-donor fundraising machine.

As the ONLY party of the right-free enterprise coalition of not-the-NDP... they will be ok, since they are the only option out there really. but they will not have such dominance in terms of money in the war chest. It will be a much more level playing field. 

[lilTommy]

Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!

Should also note that for a good chunk of the time, Lord appointed two opposition MLAs to patronage appointments and waited a ridiculous amount of time to call the by-elections, so the vacancies gave him some breathing room. (There was also one budget vote that was conveniently scheduled for a day at least 2 Liberal MLAs and Elizabeth Weir were out of town.)

The Liberals ended up winning both those by-elections, and when the Tanker Malley debacle happened, the jig was up.

Reminds me of when Dalton McGuinty - who had come 1 seat away from winning a majority in 2011 - appointed Elizabeth Witmer to head the WSIB. Witmer was probably the only Tory to represent an otherwise Liberal seat (she had won it because she was quite popular), so she was a good choice for McGuinty to trigger a by-election to get a majority. Of course the plan backfired, and the NDP won the seat, with the Liberals finishing third.

Will Horgan try to appoint Liberal MLAs to comfy government jobs? Would be a big risk, I don't think they could win any current Liberal seats in a by-election. Perhaps if they could convince the Greens to not also run.

IF Horgan did this, and like you said big risk, there are a few seats I think the NDP/Green vote could win. (I think it would have to be NDP with green support and no candidate):

*Vancouver-False Creek -> combined NDP/Green vote would have won the seat, if the NDP candidate from 2017 runs again she was very high profile, socially liberal area but wealthy I believe.
*Couquitlam-Burke Mountain -> surprise NDP win in a by-election, and a very close lose for the NDP in the General, combined NDP/Green vote would have won it. Not my first choice since this was/is a traditionally BCL seat.
*Skeena or Columbia River-Revelstoke ->BCL gains in 2017, but traditionally NDP seats. CRR would be NDP with the combined NDP/G votes. Another bonus is that these are rural/interior seats that the NDP need to win back to form a majority.

For a Green win, NDP supporting Green; West Vancouver - Sea-to-Sky, Greens were second here with the combined NDP/G vote would have won.

[lilTommy]

Yeah, a BC Liberal sitting as an Independent might be a likelier possibility than triggered byelections.

Incidentally, I don't know historical BC politics in-depth, but besides Gordon Wilson, has there ever been any sitting Lib/Socred MLAs jumping to the NDP?

Other then Gordon Wilson, I don't think so. But there are two who have left the NDP to sit with the SoCreds. In 1975 Frank Calder the MLA for Atlin crossed to the SoCreds, and the NDP candidate who defeated him, Al Passarell, in 1985 switched to the SoCreds. What was up with Atlin!

Something else to think about, with Clark's HUGE shift, what is the likelihood that some of the more right-wing Liberals leave to sit as Conservatives/Independents? It's happened not that long ago here

[lilTommy]

Clark is not only quitting as leader of the BC Liberal Party, she is also resigning her seat in the legislature effective August 4. Since Horgan has six months to call a byelection that means the NDP/Greens will have a clear majority with no need for a tie-breaking vote by the speaker during the entire fall session and up to March of 2018.

Where is "Lotuslander" these days? I usually rely on his posts about BC politics to know what will NOT happen next.

The NDP have never won this seat, so this is a good thing. Had this been a winnable seat, we could see a by-election before that (ONLY if it was really winnable)
but question, since the NDP HAS no history here, this is not favourable territory, could they not run a candidate in favour of a Green? (posted in the other CDN by-election thread too)