Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[the506]

2018 election up - http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/ - no poll results yet, but really those poll maps were horrible so.
If you want to see, here ya go - https://globalnews.ca/news/4257183/ontario-election-results-2018/

Poll maps are now up (except for the 2 far northern ridings which haven't completed counting yet, they'll be up ASAP).

I was really hoping Ontario would do like New Brunswick, keeping the old polling division granularity by way of looking up each voter's polling division and coding it on the ballot. But, nope, we get these frankenpolls instead.

They're going to regret this when the next election comes around and the party canvassers are stuck with....this.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Meh, I don't mind the new polling districts that much. They're still smaller than a lot of US precincts.

[Hatman 🍁]

Meh, I don't mind the new polling districts that much. They're still smaller than a lot of US precincts.

Blasphemy!

[adma]

Meh, I don't mind the new polling districts that much. They're still smaller than a lot of US precincts.

Or, if you want, wards in the UK.

Of course, you have to factor in how boneheaded by and large US psephologists tend to be, and cagey about precinct-level transparency to boot...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or, if you want, wards in the UK.

We don't even get ward results for GEs as a rule. A couple of London boroughs and (randomly but very instructively) Wigan published there's, but that's it. Crazy.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Or, if you want, wards in the UK.

We don't even get ward results for GEs as a rule. A couple of London boroughs and (randomly but very instructively) Wigan published there's, but that's it. Crazy.

Is there any reason for this, aside from to annoy people like us?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or, if you want, wards in the UK.

We don't even get ward results for GEs as a rule. A couple of London boroughs and (randomly but very instructively) Wigan published there's, but that's it. Crazy.

Is there any reason for this, aside from to annoy people like us?

Originally it stemmed from a desire to protect the integrity of the ballot and the right of the voter to anonymity, but by this point it's just habit, tradition and laziness. One issue is that votes from different polling districts and even different wards are sometimes mixed together to be counted. It's all very silly and inefficient - polling districts are large enough that there's no threat of individual voters being identified and counting votes at each polling station and then reporting them would actually speed up the process greatly... and reduce the risk of errors: the worst in recent decades was Staffordshire S.E. in 1987 at which the Labour and SDP totals appear to have been confused for each other. It was a safe Conservative seat that year, but Jesus Christ all the same...

[ON Progressive]

Or, if you want, wards in the UK.

We don't even get ward results for GEs as a rule. A couple of London boroughs and (randomly but very instructively) Wigan published there's, but that's it. Crazy.

Is there any reason for this, aside from to annoy people like us?

Originally it stemmed from a desire to protect the integrity of the ballot and the right of the voter to anonymity, but by this point it's just habit, tradition and laziness. One issue is that votes from different polling districts and even different wards are sometimes mixed together to be counted. It's all very silly and inefficient - polling districts are large enough that there's no threat of individual voters being identified and counting votes at each polling station and then reporting them would actually speed up the process greatly... and reduce the risk of errors: the worst in recent decades was Staffordshire S.E. in 1987 at which the Labour and SDP totals appear to have been confused for each other. It was a safe Conservative seat that year, but Jesus Christ all the same...

It would be very nice if the UK would actually report poll-by-poll. The fact it takes until the next afternoon to report results in some constituencies is actually sad.

[Oryxslayer]

Or, if you want, wards in the UK.

We don't even get ward results for GEs as a rule. A couple of London boroughs and (randomly but very instructively) Wigan published there's, but that's it. Crazy.

Is there any reason for this, aside from to annoy people like us?

Originally it stemmed from a desire to protect the integrity of the ballot and the right of the voter to anonymity, but by this point it's just habit, tradition and laziness. One issue is that votes from different polling districts and even different wards are sometimes mixed together to be counted. It's all very silly and inefficient - polling districts are large enough that there's no threat of individual voters being identified and counting votes at each polling station and then reporting them would actually speed up the process greatly... and reduce the risk of errors: the worst in recent decades was Staffordshire S.E. in 1987 at which the Labour and SDP totals appear to have been confused for each other. It was a safe Conservative seat that year, but Jesus Christ all the same...

It would be very nice if the UK would actually report poll-by-poll. The fact it takes until the next afternoon to report results in some constituencies is actually sad.

The overnight hand count is kinda a tradition by now in the UK, so while it is horribly slow, I don't think it will ever go away.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be very nice if the UK would actually report poll-by-poll. The fact it takes until the next afternoon to report results in some constituencies is actually sad.

The central counting method is the reason for the slow pace of results, yes, but not for the afternoon declarations: they only happen for constituencies where the count starts in the morning (often large rural constituencies - it used to be more common as well). Or where things are really tight and there have been multiple re-counts and everyone is really ratty by the early hours.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The overnight hand count is kinda a tradition by now in the UK, so while it is horribly slow, I don't think it will ever go away.

There's no reason why you can't count the ballots overnight and even have the theatrical declarations* while also having a more modern and efficient method of counting. It's just a matter of having the votes counted in the polling stations in which they are cast.

_{*More theatrical than people realise: the candidates on stage all know whose won and by how much by that point. But traditionally one maintains as much of a poker face as one can manage.}

[toaster]

Liberal: 87
PC: 203
NDP: 237
Green: 27

The poll for my condo building went NDP as did much of the region of newer condos in South-east Etobicoke.  Makes this area more in contention for the NDP in the future.  The area is much more similar to neighbours to the east in Swansea (in Parkdale- High Park) than to the rest of Etobicoke - Lakeshore.  As more condos go up, I can see this becoming more of a progressive riding than it has been ( or when the riding is ultimately divided).  it remains one of the largest in the province (based on population, and growing fast with young people and families).  Progressives here are definitely willing to swing between NDP and Liberal. 

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think they are going to divide Etobicoke-Lakeshore up in the next redistribution. They'll want to keep Etobicoke together as one whole unit (divided in three, with no ridings crossing the Humber), so ultimately it will just mean shifting the northern border further south.

[Hash]

I happen to live in one of the few remaining Liberal polls in this province:

Lib 676
PC 459
NDP 298
Grn 24
Ind 7
Ltn 6

[adma]

Any advance poll results yet?  Wouldn't mind knowing how they compare to the general election count...

[King of Kensington]

PC vote vs. Ford 2014 vote

Beaches-East York  18.44%  21.30%
Davenport  16.09%  30.93%
Don Valley East  33.10%  33.53%
Don Valley North  44.44%  34.48%
Don Valley West  38.49%  15.23%
Eglinton-Lawrence  40.38%  22.90%
Etobicoke Centre  42.67%  43.38%
Etobicoke-Lakeshore  38.37%  34.25%
Etobicoke North  52.54%  69.39%
Humber River-Black Creek  30.29%  63.61%
Parkdale-High Park  18.01%  17.28%
Scarborough-Agincourt  50.37%  49.13%
Scarborough Centre  38.42%  51.42%
Scarborough-Guildwood  33.12%  47.65%
Scarborough North  50.17%  53.66%
Scarborough-Rouge Park  38.61%  47.48%
Scarborough Southwest  31.32%  41.98%
Spadina-Fort York  21.79%  12.87%
Toronto Centre  14.12%  13.98%
Toronto-Danforth  15.86%  18.64%
Toronto-St. Paul's  26.30%  14.25%
University-Rosedale  21.11%  10.80%
Willowdale  43.69%  28.98%
York Centre  50.15%  46.72%
York South-Weston  32.95%  59.22%

(Thanks Hatman for the municipal numbers)
 

[DC Al Fine]

Any advance poll results yet?  Wouldn't mind knowing how they compare to the general election count...

Judging by the regular polls there will be one major advance poll for each riding plus half a dozen random apartment building polls.

[Tintrlvr]

PC vote vs. Ford 2014 vote

Beaches-East York  18.44%  21.30%
Davenport  16.09%  30.93%
Don Valley East  33.10%  33.53%
Don Valley North  44.44%  34.48%
Don Valley West  38.49%  15.23%
Eglinton-Lawrence  40.38%  22.90%
Etobicoke Centre  42.67%  43.38%
Etobicoke-Lakeshore  38.37%  34.25%
Etobicoke North  52.54%  69.39%
Humber River-Black Creek  30.29%  63.61%
Parkdale-High Park  18.01%  17.28%
Scarborough-Agincourt  50.37%  49.13%
Scarborough Centre  38.42%  51.42%
Scarborough-Guildwood  33.12%  47.65%
Scarborough North  50.17%  53.66%
Scarborough-Rouge Park  38.61%  47.48%
Scarborough Southwest  31.32%  41.98%
Spadina-Fort York  21.79%  12.87%
Toronto Centre  14.12%  13.98%
Toronto-Danforth  15.86%  18.64%
Toronto-St. Paul's  26.30%  14.25%
University-Rosedale  21.11%  10.80%
Willowdale  43.69%  28.98%
York Centre  50.15%  46.72%
York South-Weston  32.95%  59.22%

(Thanks Hatman for the municipal numbers)
 

PC vote gain vs Ford 2014 vote might be even more interesting (if predictable).

[King of Kensington]

Another interesting aspect of Ford's leadership: the most "conservative" inner Toronto riding (St. Paul's) had a lower PC vote share than every single outer Toronto seat.  Even the most anti-Conservative outer TO seats - HRBC and York South-Weston - had higher PC shares, having become three-way races rather than the usual Conservative dead zones.

[King of Kensington]

Some poll by poll combinations for University-Rosedale.

Rosedale and Moore Park:

PC  2,370  35.3%
Liberal  2,326  34.7%
NDP  1,531  22.8%

Yorkville:

Liberal 1,769  32.5%
PC  1,668  30.6%
NDP  1,017  27.2%

Annex and Seaton Village:

NDP  4,800  61.6%
Liberal  1,373  17.6%
PC  1,017  13%

Harbord Village and Kensington Market:

NDP  2,279  61%
Liberal  570  15.3%
PC  475  12.7%

[lilTommy]

I don't think they are going to divide Etobicoke-Lakeshore up in the next redistribution. They'll want to keep Etobicoke together as one whole unit (divided in three, with no ridings crossing the Humber), so ultimately it will just mean shifting the northern border further south.

Etobicoke has about 365,000 poople, so it will take at least about 10 years or so with the rough 4% city growth to get over 400K poeple to warrant a 4th riding. I could see them split Etobicoke a-la pre-99 ridings. So a North, East, West, South set up. But I agree, most of the growth has been in the south so the boundaries are likely to shift south and that benefits progressive voters (as mentioned, they will swing from NDP-OLP depending on who is the strongest anti-PC vote).
But there is a strong NDP/Progressive area around the Northern boundary that could be lost too, around the Dundas-Bloor-Islington area. So give and take

[King of Kensington]

Looking at some poll by polls, North Toronto and Leaside were holdouts for the "too educated to vote Conservative, too bourgeois to vote NDP" demographic.  It was enough to for Kathleen Wynne to (barely) keep her seat, but Mike Colle just fell short in Eglinton-Lawrence.

Leaside

Liberal  3,567  46%
PC  2,435  31.4%
NDP  1,352  17.4%

Eglinton-Lawrence: North Toronto polls

Liberal  5,340  48.1%
PC  3,349  30.2%
NDP  1,997  18%

[adma]

Looking at some poll by polls, North Toronto and Leaside were holdouts for the "too educated to vote Conservative, too bourgeois to vote NDP" demographic.  It was enough to for Kathleen Wynne to (barely) keep her seat, but Mike Colle just fell short in Eglinton-Lawrence.

Leaside

Liberal  3,567  46%
PC  2,435  31.4%
NDP  1,352  17.4%

Eglinton-Lawrence: North Toronto polls

Liberal  5,340  48.1%
PC  3,349  30.2%
NDP  1,997  18%

By comparison, for the west-of-Dufferin Eg-Law polls--traditionally a blue-collar Liberal stronghold, but mayorally Ford Nation...

Lib 41.03
PC 36.37
NDP 19.04

And take away the still-Liberal-skewing Villa Colombo-zone seniors' polls, and the PCs actually had a plurality there--by one vote!

[Republican Left]

How many more seats do you think the Progressive Conservatives would have won if they elected a more "palatable" figure than Mr.Ford? Could they have even won the popular vote?

On another note, how do you think Quebec's elections will play out/

[King of Kensington]

Christine Elliott probably would have won Don Valley West for them, but I don't she would have done as well for them in Scarborough and Etobicoke.