Weren’t Millennials supposed to be Evangelical right wingers?
I do vaguely recall that talking point now. It was basically based on drawing trends from data points and assuming those trends would continue indefinitely.
Of course this fallacy shows up here a lot too.
Bush actually did win with young voters while loosing with old voters in 2000, but I suspect that’s because young voters feared Tipper and Lieberman, not because they liked Bush’s evangelicalism.
I realize its an important issue for you but it's a bit niche in the context of presidential elections.
Why else would young voters be more Republican than old voters? Also, 2000 was a time of good economy, no war, crime rates had fallen, etc.
Olds came of age during the time of the New Deal coalition and Al Gore talked about a "lock-box" to protect Social Security. GWB was focused more on aspiration and expansion of opportunity rather than security, which was a message that worked decently at the time with those in the early part of their careers.