2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 20, 2024, 12:57:17 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 62 63 64 65 66 [67] 68 69 70 71 72 ... 80
Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 169456 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1650 on: August 14, 2019, 10:44:36 AM »
Quote from: beesley on August 14, 2019, 10:39:12 AM


and


GOP pickup and Likely R
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,033
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1651 on: August 14, 2019, 10:55:44 AM »
Quote from: TrendsareReal on August 13, 2019, 01:49:31 PM
Quote from: Pittsburgh For Kamala on August 13, 2019, 01:13:09 PM
Quote from: Pittsburgh For Kamala on August 13, 2019, 01:11:34 PM
Quote from: morgieb on August 12, 2019, 10:39:04 PM
Quote from: Pittsburgh For Kamala on August 12, 2019, 07:50:29 PM
"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle
Not really. This is probably the first cycle (at least in the last 20 years) where most people think Peterson is in a sh**tload of trouble.

Lol, yes really. They were going ballistic in 2018 🤷🏻‍♂️

Not serious. There hasn’t been a single Republican in the MA delegation since 1995 and I doubt that nutjob is the one to change it.

Do you realize Peterson is in Minnesota, not Massachusetts? And in a district that voted for Trump by 30% no less

That was meant for my analysis on Curt Schilling, not Peterson. I accidentally replied to my own comment rather than to 96FJV.
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1652 on: August 14, 2019, 01:48:16 PM »
Quote from: LCameronAL on August 14, 2019, 10:44:36 AM
Quote from: beesley on August 14, 2019, 10:39:12 AM


and


GOP pickup and Likely R

Err...NY-19 is Lean D.
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1653 on: August 14, 2019, 03:02:46 PM »
Quote from: Emperor Frederick II Hohenstaufen on August 14, 2019, 01:48:16 PM
Quote from: LCameronAL on August 14, 2019, 10:44:36 AM
Quote from: beesley on August 14, 2019, 10:39:12 AM


and


GOP pickup and Likely R

Err...NY-19 is Lean D.

It's a Trump +7 district and every pundit aside from Inside Elections rates it as a tossup. It's not a Lean D district and could easily be picked back up with the right candidate. The Likely R was in reference to IN-05.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1654 on: August 14, 2019, 03:38:19 PM »
Quote from: Pittsburgh For Kamala on August 12, 2019, 07:50:29 PM
"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle

Uh, what? Hardly anyone thought Peterson would lose in 2018. Even I of all people had it as likely D, lol. And he still managed to do worse than he did in 2016 despite the nation as a whole swinging Democratic by double digits and the NRCC giving him a free pass.

Anyway, Safe R -> Safe R
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1655 on: August 14, 2019, 09:16:58 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on August 14, 2019, 03:38:19 PM
Quote from: Pittsburgh For Kamala on August 12, 2019, 07:50:29 PM
"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle

Uh, what? Hardly anyone thought Peterson would lose in 2018. Even I of all people had it as likely D, lol. And he still managed to do worse than he did in 2016 despite the nation as a whole swinging Democratic by double digits and the NRCC giving him a free pass.

Anyway, Safe R -> Safe R

I def remember people laughing at rcp for rating mn 7th a tossup.
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1656 on: August 14, 2019, 09:17:19 PM »
Quote from: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on August 14, 2019, 09:16:58 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on August 14, 2019, 03:38:19 PM
Quote from: Pittsburgh For Kamala on August 12, 2019, 07:50:29 PM
"Ok, Peterson will lose THIS time!"

-Atlas for the 26th cycle

Uh, what? Hardly anyone thought Peterson would lose in 2018. Even I of all people had it as likely D, lol. And he still managed to do worse than he did in 2016 despite the nation as a whole swinging Democratic by double digits and the NRCC giving him a free pass.

Anyway, Safe R -> Safe R

I def remember people laughing at rcp for rating mn 7th a tossup.

I don't
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,059


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1657 on: August 15, 2019, 10:53:17 AM »
The DCCC has added six more districts to it's House battlefield:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/dccc-adds-six-more-trump-districts-to-its-2020-target-list

- Florida's 16th District (R-Buchanan)
- Iowa's 2nd District (OPEN, D-Loebsack)
- Michigan's 3rd District (I-Amash)
- Montana's At-Large District (OPEN?, R-Gianforte)
- Ohio's 12th District (R-Balderson)
- Virginia's 5th District (R-Riggleman)

Aside from IA-02 (which was likely added as it is now a competitive open seat), these districts are stretches for the Democrats.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1658 on: August 15, 2019, 12:42:16 PM »
Stewart voter for D house 2020!
Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,101
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1659 on: August 15, 2019, 01:00:42 PM »
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,928


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1660 on: August 15, 2019, 03:17:15 PM »
Logged
UncleSam
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,521


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1661 on: August 15, 2019, 03:58:43 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 15, 2019, 03:17:15 PM

This is borderline Likely D honestly. I know it’s only Clinton +3 but given the emphasis that will be on Texas in 2020 I think the GOP triaging this seat is more likely than the GOP holding it
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1662 on: August 15, 2019, 04:28:31 PM »
GA-07: State Sen. Zahra Karinshak (D-Gwinnett) who is famous for serving as legal counsel to Roy Barnes during the flag controversy in the early 2000’s launched her run today for this Lean D seat
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,968


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1663 on: August 15, 2019, 04:29:06 PM »
Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,101
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1664 on: August 16, 2019, 02:28:34 PM »


A Conservadem State Senator primarying a Blue Dog... really?
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,031
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1665 on: August 16, 2019, 09:13:23 PM »
Quote from: beesley on August 16, 2019, 02:28:34 PM


A Conservadem State Senator primarying a Blue Dog... really?
He’s a fake Bluedog
Logged
136or142
Adam T
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,434
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1666 on: August 16, 2019, 10:18:11 PM »
Quote from: gracile on August 15, 2019, 10:53:17 AM
The DCCC has added six more districts to it's House battlefield:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/campaigns/dccc-adds-six-more-trump-districts-to-its-2020-target-list

- Florida's 16th District (R-Buchanan)
- Iowa's 2nd District (OPEN, D-Loebsack)
- Michigan's 3rd District (I-Amash)
- Montana's At-Large District (OPEN?, R-Gianforte)
- Ohio's 12th District (R-Balderson)
- Virginia's 5th District (R-Riggleman)

Aside from IA-02 (which was likely added as it is now a competitive open seat), these districts are stretches for the Democrats.

A Democratic state representative is in the running against Buchanan,  Grand Rapids has been trending Democratic, Montana is an open district, Balderson is a Republican extremist (though which Republicans aren't extremists?) and Riggleman is a flake.  Most of them aren't top tier opportunities but they can be interesting under these circumstances.
Logged
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,746


Political Matrix
E: -8.88, S: -8.51

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1667 on: August 16, 2019, 10:55:06 PM »
Riggleman will win re-election in 2020.
Logged
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,387
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1668 on: August 17, 2019, 07:10:55 AM »
Quote from: Young Conservative on August 16, 2019, 09:13:23 PM
Quote from: beesley on August 16, 2019, 02:28:34 PM


A Conservadem State Senator primarying a Blue Dog... really?
He’s a fake Bluedog

Almost none of these days Blue Dogs are even comparable to their counterparts of decade ago. Even less so - with "Boll Weevils" of the past.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1669 on: August 17, 2019, 12:10:23 PM »
WHEN WILL THEY LEARN

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/08/17/rrh-elections-august-2019-house-ratings/#comments

STOP RATING VA 10th LIKELY D.
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,059


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1670 on: August 17, 2019, 12:10:47 PM »
Full RRH Elections rating changes:

Toward the GOP:
IA-01: Lean D -> Tossup
MN-07: Lean D -> Tossup
NV-03: Likely D - > Lean D
NJ-02: Likely D -> Lean D
NY-11: Lean D -> Tossup
OH-12: Lean R -> Likely R
OR-04: Safe D -> Likely D
PA-01: Tossup -> Lean R
TX-10: Lean R -> Likely R
TX-31: Lean R -> Likely R
VA-10: Safe D -> Likely D

Toward the Democrats:
CA-25: Lean D -> Likely D
IN-05: Likely R -> Lean R
MI-03: Likely R -> Three-way Tossup
TX-23: Lean R -> Lean D
VA-07: Tossup -> Lean D
WI-08: Safe R -> Likely R

Some of these changes are okay, but there are some pretty questionable calls in here.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1671 on: August 17, 2019, 12:16:17 PM »
Also tx 24th is pretty clearly a tossup for now, unlike the other one's besides texas 23 it doesn't require a wave or a 3rd shift D trend to be winnable.
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,059


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1672 on: August 17, 2019, 12:18:10 PM »
Quote from: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on August 17, 2019, 12:16:17 PM
Also tx 24th is pretty clearly a tossup for now, unlike the other one's besides texas 23 it doesn't require a wave or a 3rd shift D trend to be winnable.

RRH seems pretty in denial about the state of Texas' House races, to put it mildly.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1673 on: August 17, 2019, 02:54:18 PM »
RRH has VA-10 and PA-8 rated the same way.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1674 on: August 17, 2019, 06:07:09 PM »

Yeah im not calling them hacks by their ratings, just in denial.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 62 63 64 65 66 [67] 68 69 70 71 72 ... 80  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.073 seconds with 10 queries.