2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[YE]

Junk polls! Politician has assured me that 2016 and 2018 were two offs and that ancestrally Democratic WI-03 is safe D and that ancestrally Republican CA-45 will be hyper competitive!

Evers carried that district. It might not be as strongly Democratic as it was 10 years ago but it still leans that way.

He barely carried WI-03. It was something like a two point Evers win. Hardly D leaning when you consider it nearly matched the statewide results

Two points is more D than the state at large to be fair. Kind isn’t safe but he’s not as vulnerable as day Cartwright.

[ajc0918]

DCCC thinks UT-02 is competitive? For what it's worth UT-02 is where the bulk of Salt Lake City is

It sounds ludicrous, but national Democrats think they might have a chance to knock off four-term incumbent Republican Chris Stewart in 2020.

A source with knowledge tells UtahPolicy.com that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has taken an interest in the race in UT02 due to polling showing President Donald Trump is not well liked in the district. Stewart is one of Trump’s most steadfast defenders in Congress. Polling also shows Stewart’s job approval ratings are underwater in the district, and he is also struggling with his name ID among his constituents. We agreed to withhold the source’s identity as they are not authorized to speak publicly about the DCCC’s interest in the race.

UtahPolicy.com’s most recent survey found 26% of Rep. Stewart’s constituents approve of his job performance, while 33% disapprove, which gives him a net negative approval rating of -7. Additionally, one-fifth of voters in Utah’s 2nd District had no opinion about Stewart’s job performance.

Voters in the 2nd District mostly disapprove of President Trump’s job performance, with 58% giving him negative marks and 46% approving - a negative net approval of -12. 50% of voters say they “strongly” disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Stewart’s closeness to Trump could be a vulnerability in 2020 if the negative marks for the president continue or grow.

Trump did carry the 2nd District in 2016, but only got 46% of the vote due to the presence of independent candidate Evan McMullin on the ballot who siphoned away nearly 17%. However, only 35% of voters in the 2nd District are ready to vote for Trump next year, while 37% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate.

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/21348-national-democrats-think-rep-chris-stewart-could-be-vulnerable-in-2020

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1163818434758508551?s=20

[Politician]

DCCC thinks UT-02 is competitive? For what it's worth UT-02 is where the bulk of Salt Lake City is

It sounds ludicrous, but national Democrats think they might have a chance to knock off four-term incumbent Republican Chris Stewart in 2020.

A source with knowledge tells UtahPolicy.com that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has taken an interest in the race in UT02 due to polling showing President Donald Trump is not well liked in the district. Stewart is one of Trump’s most steadfast defenders in Congress. Polling also shows Stewart’s job approval ratings are underwater in the district, and he is also struggling with his name ID among his constituents. We agreed to withhold the source’s identity as they are not authorized to speak publicly about the DCCC’s interest in the race.

UtahPolicy.com’s most recent survey found 26% of Rep. Stewart’s constituents approve of his job performance, while 33% disapprove, which gives him a net negative approval rating of -7. Additionally, one-fifth of voters in Utah’s 2nd District had no opinion about Stewart’s job performance.

Voters in the 2nd District mostly disapprove of President Trump’s job performance, with 58% giving him negative marks and 46% approving - a negative net approval of -12. 50% of voters say they “strongly” disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Stewart’s closeness to Trump could be a vulnerability in 2020 if the negative marks for the president continue or grow.

Trump did carry the 2nd District in 2016, but only got 46% of the vote due to the presence of independent candidate Evan McMullin on the ballot who siphoned away nearly 17%. However, only 35% of voters in the 2nd District are ready to vote for Trump next year, while 37% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate.

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/21348-national-democrats-think-rep-chris-stewart-could-be-vulnerable-in-2020

If the Democrats seriously try to contest this race they deserve to lose the House.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

UT-02 is titanium red regardless of Trump's approval numbers there. DCCC is insane to consider that potentially competitive.

[Brittain33]

This is the district which includes all of SLC, which is probably why they’re curious, but it’s not a populous city.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is indication that MT-Sen is becoming more competitive and can be Dems 3rd pickup opportunity if Dems fail to topple Collins or Ernst; whom have been pragmatic.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

There is indication that MT-Sen is becoming more competitive and can be Dems 3rd pickup opportunity if Dems fail to topple Collins or Ernst; whom have been pragmatic.

Indication from where? If Bullock doesn't run it's strong Likely R.

[Badger]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1064202106922520577

This is really stunning tbh. And of course, 1970 is an odd one because Nixon won a low plurality in 1968.

Is this not a function of very high midterm turnout in 2018 relative to 2016.  I think a fair comparison would be then to take the ruling party total vote in the midterm and compare it to the ruling party Prez total vote.  I suspect 2018 GOP does fairly well on that metric.  For sure it will easily beat 2010 and 1994 by a large margin and most likely beat 2002 which was suppose to be a very good year for the ruling party.  In fact I am sure if we do the math the GOP 2018 total vote as a percentage of the prev Prez vote would most likely exceed the 1934 Dems.

After this past year, all the elections listed had significant third-party candidates diluting the presidential vote. One has to go several elections down the list to 1958 before we avoid that effect.

Not sure what this means, but it makes me cautiously optimistic.

[Oryxslayer]

Jason Lewis is running against Tina Smith. I get this peculiar feeling he isn't the candidate that can win Twin Cities suburb voter the GOP still needs to win here, despite their rural gains.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Jason Lewis is running against Tina Smith. I get this peculiar feeling he isn't the candidate that can win Twin Cities suburb voter the GOP still needs to win here, despite their rural gains.

Lol still likely D.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It seems that there are rumors swirling that Steve Watkins will resign due to a sex scandal.

[Duke of York]

It seems that there are rumors swirling that Steve Watkins will resign due to a sex scandal.

Oh my. The special election would start off as a tossup at best given the result in 2018. Would the special be held in November or would there not be enough time?

[Lisa's voting Biden]

It seems that there are rumors swirling that Steve Watkins will resign due to a sex scandal.

These allegations have been around since 2018:
https://www.cjonline.com/news/20181026/steve-watkins-gop-candidate-for-congress-confronts-allegations-of-sexual-misconduct

What changed?

[Landslide Lyndon]

It seems that there are rumors swirling that Steve Watkins will resign due to a sex scandal.

These allegations have been around since 2018:
https://www.cjonline.com/news/20181026/steve-watkins-gop-candidate-for-congress-confronts-allegations-of-sexual-misconduct

What changed?

Apparently someone got hold of photos.

[Pollster]

It seems that there are rumors swirling that Steve Watkins will resign due to a sex scandal.

These allegations have been around since 2018:
https://www.cjonline.com/news/20181026/steve-watkins-gop-candidate-for-congress-confronts-allegations-of-sexual-misconduct

What changed?

Apparently someone got hold of photos.

I am hearing that this is a new one - something to do with an intern in his office.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

It seems that there are rumors swirling that Steve Watkins will resign due to a sex scandal.

These allegations have been around since 2018:
https://www.cjonline.com/news/20181026/steve-watkins-gop-candidate-for-congress-confronts-allegations-of-sexual-misconduct

What changed?

Apparently someone got hold of photos.

I am hearing that this is a new one - something to do with an intern in his office.

I haven't found any news source other than randoms mumbling about it on Twitter. Mind linking something?

[Pollster]

It seems that there are rumors swirling that Steve Watkins will resign due to a sex scandal.

These allegations have been around since 2018:
https://www.cjonline.com/news/20181026/steve-watkins-gop-candidate-for-congress-confronts-allegations-of-sexual-misconduct

What changed?

Apparently someone got hold of photos.

I am hearing that this is a new one - something to do with an intern in his office.

I haven't found any news source other than randoms mumbling about it on Twitter. Mind linking something?

Nothing reported yet, but I've got a series of contacts in Kansas (I've done a lot of work there in the Brownback and post-Brownback era) who have all alluded in one way or another. Nobody is telling a consistent story, though. Latest I've heard is that a news outlet (not sure which one) is waiting on a comment from his spox. Could be a Friday night news dump.

Clarifying though that these are strictly rumors, just rumors I am hearing from usually credible sources.

[IceSpear]

Jason Lewis is running against Tina Smith. I get this peculiar feeling he isn't the candidate that can win Twin Cities suburb voter the GOP still needs to win here, despite their rural gains.

Despite being the incumbent he actually did worse than Karin Housley did in MN-02, lol. The MNGOP has a major bench problem. If they want to take a serious shot at this seat they should be begging Stauber to run.

[Politician]

Jason Lewis is running against Tina Smith. I get this peculiar feeling he isn't the candidate that can win Twin Cities suburb voter the GOP still needs to win here, despite their rural gains.

Despite being the incumbent he actually did worse than Karin Housley did in MN-02, lol. The MNGOP has a major bench problem. If they want to take a serious shot at this seat they should be begging Stauber to run.

Why would Stauber give up a relatively safe house seat to run an extreme Longshot Senate race?

[IceSpear]

Jason Lewis is running against Tina Smith. I get this peculiar feeling he isn't the candidate that can win Twin Cities suburb voter the GOP still needs to win here, despite their rural gains.

Despite being the incumbent he actually did worse than Karin Housley did in MN-02, lol. The MNGOP has a major bench problem. If they want to take a serious shot at this seat they should be begging Stauber to run.

Why would Stauber give up a relatively safe house seat to run an extreme Longshot Senate race?

From his perspective, yes, it would be dumb. But from the NRSC's perspective it would be ideal.

[lfromnj]

Jason Lewis is running against Tina Smith. I get this peculiar feeling he isn't the candidate that can win Twin Cities suburb voter the GOP still needs to win here, despite their rural gains.

Despite being the incumbent he actually did worse than Karin Housley did in MN-02, lol. The MNGOP has a major bench problem. If they want to take a serious shot at this seat they should be begging Stauber to run.

Why would Stauber give up a relatively safe house seat to run an extreme Longshot Senate race?

From his perspective, yes, it would be dumb. But from the NRSC's perspective it would be ideal.

and It doesn't really mater for the NRCC either, just spend some dollars finding a some dude and its still Safe R.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Utah District 14 Senator Dan Hemmert is running for UT-04. He supports Trump's tax cuts but doesn't like Trump's tariff policy or his Twitter behavior. He also has Mia Love's support if she chooses not to run:

https://www.ksl.com/article/46622730/utah-sen-dan-hemmert-announces-run-for-congress

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1165523079126081536?s=19

Gosar gets a primary challenge.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1165356969319731200?s=20
Dave Perdue gets a primary challenger, James Jackson.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1165334319327404032?s=20
Ben Sasse gets a primary challenger, Matt Innis. Innis had stated earlier this month his intention to run because Sasse did not support the president enough.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1165164464267595776?s=20
Ann Kirkpatrick also gets a primary challenger in AZ-02, Nevin Kohler.