Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Adam Griffin]

Moore won Etowah county in 2012 but it gave him some pretty weak numbers, especially for his home base. Since then, with the allegations, I would keep a close eye on that one Tuesday.

Yeah, and not only then, but it gave him a pathetic showing in the GOP primary run-off as well (57%). He did do pretty well there in the three-way in August, though (51%), but picked up less than half of the non-Moore/non-Strange vote in the run-off. In fact, he significantly under-performed IMO throughout most of rural NE AL.

[Adam Griffin]

The Alabama Song of the South might be my favorite political song. 

Daddy was a veteran, a Southern Democrat
They oughta get a rich man to vote like that

[Adam Griffin]

AP county map

Feeling pretty confident about my Jones +6 prediction, but we'll see later what happens.

WTF is going on with the AP and its premature reporting of oddly-specific results? Saving for posterity just in case the election's rigged:

[Adam Griffin]

Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

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Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

[Adam Griffin]

Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

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Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

[Adam Griffin]

Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

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That's bad for Jones right?

I'm going to assume that - just like in ATL and other cities - any place called "Midtown" is filled with a bunch of white liberal and/or Democratic votes in general, but could be mistaken.

[Adam Griffin]

Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

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Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

About freaking out over turnout reports.

We're reaching peak atlas once again

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdWAhP8rYKA

[Adam Griffin]

Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

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Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

Turnout doesn't matter if there's a particular mood in the electorate ...

A Democrat can defeat a Republican by 60-40 with 10% turnout, or with 90% turnout.

Or lose by the same margins with the same levels of turnout.

Uhhh, no: Democrats cannot win by 20 points in a federal contest in AL with 90% turnout, regardless of mood. Maybe with 10%, but even that's pushing the envelope of what's realistically possible.

[Adam Griffin]

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@elsi_1915
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Replying to @acvollers @misszoot
As of 1022, 643 people voted at United Methodist on Old Monrovia!![/quote]

2982 votes in 2016 (51-40 Clinton).

[Adam Griffin]

Turnout doesn't matter if there's a particular mood in the electorate ...

A Democrat can defeat a Republican by 60-40 with 10% turnout, or with 90% turnout.

Or lose by the same margins with the same levels of turnout.

Uhhh, no: Democrats cannot win by 20 points in a federal contest in AL with 90% turnout, regardless of mood. Maybe with 10%, but even that's pushing the envelope of what's realistically possible.

Apparently, you do not understand how elections work.

Of course Democrats can win in AL with 90% turnout. If the mood is there and if the Democrat is popular and the Republican not.

What is this, 1960? No segment of the American electorate at near maximum turnout is capable of swinging 40 points against its usual voting habits because there aren't enough people who are either a) capable of being turned out who aren't already voting and/or b) malleable enough to change their minds like that - and certainly not in the South. An election with 90% turnout is going to look more or less like an election with 60% turnout (at least when the baseline is a 40-point swing).

You could in theory have such an event happen with really low turnout, but that would only be because something made nearly all of the GOP stay home and a disproportionate share of Democrats turn out - which is not realistic at all. Generally, there isn't a monumental difference between the two parties' shares of the vote in low and high-turnout situations.

[Adam Griffin]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2012&fips=29169&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=1

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2012&off=0&elect=0&fips=29169&f=0

That's great and all, but it's not the same thing and you know it. It's certainly not a valid comparison within the confines of a federal contest in AL, nor does it refute Tender's ridiculous argument that 90% of AL could show up to vote and elect a Democrat in a landslide. There are plenty of examples of smaller electorates all across the country voting at different margins for different types of elections.

[Adam Griffin]

twitter dot com/MikeCasonAL/status/940633184609415168

Expected turnout is 25%, do you guys know what was turnout in 2010 Senator elections?

1485499 votes in AL-2010-SEN
2611322 active RVs in November 2010
2966933 RVs (including inactive)

So 50.06% if you count inactive registered voters; 56.89% if you count just the actives.

[Adam Griffin]

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun

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[Adam Griffin]

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Precinct was 62-36 Obama in '08; 65% white

[Adam Griffin]

This is sounding like GA-06 were people thought the higher turnout favored Ossoff but it actually pulled Handel over the line due to sheer numbers

I actually remember the opposite... high turnout in Handel-favored precincts.

In retrospect/after the election was over, that was clear, yes. In the run-up to the polls closing, it wasn't so obvious. This is why precinct turnout reports shared in threads like this are pretty useless unless somebody is tracking them all in a sheet or something; with hundreds (or in this case, thousands) of precincts, getting reports for 1% of them isn't exactly accurate. GA-6 also had the ED/EV divide to contend with, which is obviously not a real issue here.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKKirby/status/940637488456044545

Tweet from Brendan Kirby:
"Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell thinks #AlabamaSenateRace turnout in his county might hit 35-40 percent range. He also thinks Doug Jones might take about 45 percent of that vote. If he's right, hard to see Roy Moore winning."

Any chance Baldwin County Probate Judge Tim Russell is the world's biggest troll by moonlight?

[Adam Griffin]

So the Estimated Votes section of NYT is basically predicting a Jones victory.

It's actually a 453-vote Moore win assuming I made no mistakes:


Here are NYT's initial margin estimates for an approximately-tied race by county in spreadsheet format.

[Adam Griffin]

Apparently CBS's exit poll is expected around 5:00? Don't crucify me

EST or Central?

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[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

LOL:

[Adam Griffin]

I'm sure it's already been alluded to by several and I posted both figures, but:

AL GOP Favorability: 43%
AL Dem Favorability: 44%

[Adam Griffin]

40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.

40% pro-choice in ALABAMA??

WITFIGO???

I meant to say 54% are pro-choice. Poor wording

WHAAAAAT?!

Nope: 54% say it should be illegal; 40% say it should be legal

[Adam Griffin]