The possibility that the Republican primary electorate isn't so conservative

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

You guys are trying to draw a false dichotomy between "moderates" and "conservatives". That isn't the divide that is taking place during this primary season. The divide is between Republicans that are primarily conservative for economic reasons and Republicans that are primarily conservatives for cultural reasons. Santorum has little appeal to the former group and Romney has exploited this fact well by attacking him on pork barrel spending, deficits and the like. Romney's strategy of going nuclear with attack ads and making the tone of the race as negative as possible has also had the effect of driving down turnout dramatically among more politically apathetic GOPers who tend to be more Santorum-friendly.

The only reason why Romney is going to be the nominee is because of his challenger's weaknesses. Gingrich has loads of personal baggage, Santorum is lost in the past and comes off as a religious extremist, Perry is a moron, Bachmann is a moron and an extremist, Huntsman is a legitimate moderate who postures as a liberal, Paul is a libertarian and Pawlenty has the same flaws that Romney had multiplied by ten.

No candidate could really rally economic conservatives and so they went with the default option. This group always turns out at high rates and dominates primaries so their support of Romney carries more weight.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Other important note: without the application of the Romney strategy, voters will reflexively back the anti-Romney. Many states that Romney didn't invest significant time and money into resulted into a blowout against him, even in areas of natural strength. Romney's cash advantage allowed him to set the tone of the race and when the tone is in his favor, he can squeak out victories through the strategy described above. He might never win over cultural conservatives but he can drive their turnout down and ensure his domination among those who are economic conservatives.