IN-09/SurveyUSA: Rep. Hill with a moderate lead over Sodrel (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
May 20, 2024, 06:41:23 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  2008 Senatorial Election Polls
  IN-09/SurveyUSA: Rep. Hill with a moderate lead over Sodrel (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: IN-09/SurveyUSA: Rep. Hill with a moderate lead over Sodrel  (Read 1388 times)
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,546


« on: August 01, 2008, 12:37:48 AM »
« edited: August 01, 2008, 12:43:35 AM by Mr.Phips »

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?
Because IN-09ers are tired of the seeing the same "Baron Hill supports violent video games, pornography, gay marriage, and stem cell research" ads every two years.

Depending on who is elected POTUS and how that individual governs, Hill could be either very vulnerable or just normally vulnerable. If Obama has a Clintonesque first two years, Sodrel could win in 2010. After that, he'll be favored in 2012 because of redistricting (which the GOP will likely control).

To get there, he must avoid being shellacked this time.

I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

In 2012, he will Republicans make this seat more Republican?  If they move Monroe county out that will just make Ellsworth safe in IN-08. 
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,546


« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2008, 12:46:04 AM »



I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

Sad

I love that this seat goes back and forth.

The only other seat that did this was NC-11 every year in the 1980's except for 1988.  After losing in 1986 and 1988, the Republican finally quit.  Ironically, another Republican(Charles Taylor) came and beat the Democrat in 1990. 
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,546


« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2008, 12:58:36 AM »
« Edited: August 01, 2008, 01:00:59 AM by Mr.Phips »

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?
Because IN-09ers are tired of the seeing the same "Baron Hill supports violent video games, pornography, gay marriage, and stem cell research" ads every two years.

Depending on who is elected POTUS and how that individual governs, Hill could be either very vulnerable or just normally vulnerable. If Obama has a Clintonesque first two years, Sodrel could win in 2010. After that, he'll be favored in 2012 because of redistricting (which the GOP will likely control).

To get there, he must avoid being shellacked this time.

I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

In 2012, he will Republicans make this seat more Republican?  If they move Monroe county out that will just make Ellsworth safe in IN-08. 
Ellsworth is already safe. He's probably the perfect Democrat for the district. Even in a wave year, he and Heath Shuler should survive if they continue to vote their districts.

How about Joe Donnelly up in IN-02?  He also seems to fit his district almost perfectly.  His district is also a tough one to make more Republican.  If they try to take South Bend oout of the district, they would have to put it in IN-03, which would likely turn that district into a real battleground. 
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,546


« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2008, 01:39:30 AM »

Why does the Libertarian poll so high here?
Because IN-09ers are tired of the seeing the same "Baron Hill supports violent video games, pornography, gay marriage, and stem cell research" ads every two years.

Depending on who is elected POTUS and how that individual governs, Hill could be either very vulnerable or just normally vulnerable. If Obama has a Clintonesque first two years, Sodrel could win in 2010. After that, he'll be favored in 2012 because of redistricting (which the GOP will likely control).

To get there, he must avoid being shellacked this time.

I think Sodrel will likely quit if he cant win this time.  Otherwise he will begin to look like a perennial joke candidate. 

In 2012, he will Republicans make this seat more Republican?  If they move Monroe county out that will just make Ellsworth safe in IN-08. 
Ellsworth is already safe. He's probably the perfect Democrat for the district. Even in a wave year, he and Heath Shuler should survive if they continue to vote their districts.

How about Joe Donnelly up in IN-02?  He also seems to fit his district almost perfectly.  His district is also a tough one to make more Republican.  If they try to take South Bend oout of the district, they would have to put it in IN-03, which would likely turn that district into a real battleground. 
Yeah. I'd say the same for IN-02.  The DCCC had the most recruiting success last cycle in IN U.S. House races. Convincing Donnelly to run again (he'd won a respectable 45% in 2004), finding a Sheriff to run agains Hostettler and bringing back Baron were all solid moves that paid off. Even Tom Hayhurst was a decent candidate.

Very true.  This is the one state where the DCCC actually did almost perfectly in 2006.  Its funny in regards to IN-02, Chuck Todd predicted that Donnelly would be the "one-term wonder" of the three Indiana seats the night before the election.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNYMYTySOS0&feature=related
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,546


« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2008, 04:56:50 PM »

Ellsworth is certainly safe right now.  But very few places in Indiana are ever safe if the voters are in angry mode.

Yes; fascinating really. After the 1990 elections, for example, the Democrats held eight out of ten districts in Indiana.

Yeah, thats especially fascinating since Republicans drew the lines in 1982 to get a 7-3 edge in the House delegation. 
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.032 seconds with 15 queries.