This Election Is (Probably) Over

[Lunar]

This race is far from over dude.  Obama's advantage in fundraising hasn't manifested itself yet since McCain is trying to spend every penny he has before his convention September 1st.  Obama's organizational advantage isn't apparent yet, but it is dozens and dozens of times more powerful than McCain's.

McCain could have a "senior moment" on the campaign trail or any dozens of things could happen to change McCain's image from being the "tough guy" by November.

You are inaccurately extrapolating one debate in August all the way to November yo.

[Lunar]

I mean, all Obama has to do to win is basically convince voters that he is electable (will gradually increase) and that McCain does not present a substantively different plan that President Bush.  I mean, McCain has some tools in his arsenal to deflect this, but Obama hasn't even launched his principle attacks yet!  Notice that no ad as attacked McCain for his quote saying he doesn't understand economics, no ad has attacked McCain for his declaration that he's proud to have helped elect Bush, and no ad has shown that image of McCain bearhugging Bush.

This is waaay too frickin' early, son.  Obama's campaign was competent enough to defeat an inevitable candidate and extremely hard odds, I think they are at least capable of beating McCain when they are *favored.*

[Lunar]

I mean, Obama's organization is top notch.  If you look at it, they will have tens of thousands more volunteers across swing states.  Check out the fivethirtyeight.com post a couple days ago if you want to see in what areas organization can manifest themselves.

And is it really that impossible for Obama to achieve this?

Because he wins if he can do that.

[Lunar]

I think the above post is pretty reasonable.

I don't really understand it all, but it seems that McCain is being stretched.  I think the RNC has given up on him to some degree and focused on long-term rebuilding efforts in the House and Senate.

[Lunar]

Well, to play the devil's advocate, it helps to remember that Obama has spent more in Florida than any other state.  McCain's own highest-price state is Pennsylvania.

In these offensive states, you expect the challenger to spend significantly more than the defender.  It also depends on what TV shows you're watching and who both sides are targeting in terms of demographics.

I'm calling this election for Obama unless a significant event happens though.