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[It's also only one electoral vote]

If Trump only flips GA, AZ, and NV, he gets to 268. So, what about NE 2? Could he win that also?

I think it's far more realistic for him to go after one of the big Midwestern battlegrounds. The newly redrawn NE-02 was already 3 to 5 points more Democratic than each of those states in 2020, and is almost certainly trending D much faster than all of them.

In fact, I'd put more effort into NM, ME-AL, and maybe even MN if I were Team Trump.

It's also only one electoral vote

And only leads to a tie in the scenario he wins it but loses the midwestern states. It's possible he wins it but I suspect he wins the 3 midwestern battlegrounds before taking back NE-2.

To the question whether it is safe... obviously no. But if the Biden team and supporters want to be overconfident going in election cycle, be my guest.

The point is if Biden wins the blue wall that one vote is crucial

The 269-269 map with Biden winning the Rust Belt States and Trump winning NE02 is hard to see without massive urban rural depolarization.

I did a similar poll recently, but this time, I suggest that you pick one of the first two options unless you feel that you can not.

However I am choosing the fourth option this time.
I have no idea who wins.

If the polls are accurate, Biden is in big trouble, but there is plenty of time to turn this around.

Adding the too early or too close to call options is stupid, because nobody in reality can call it now. Anyone who claims they can call the race don't know what they talk about.

https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/National-May-Presentation-RELEASE-5-16-24.pdf

More people now think the US is in recession than not in recession. By a margin of more than 2 to 1, people think the economy is getting worse rather than better.

Every single libertarian should be up in arms about this (figuratively).

Because basically no other metric besides polling suggests any sort of Trump landslide. Midterms and special elections. Donations and fundraising. Campaign offices and ground game. Demographics and demographic changes in key states.

Because none of these metrics matter. And demographic change is pointless when within that demographic you see a mass drop in turnout.

If demographic change in states was all that mattered, really you could write in the winning party from 2024 to 2052 basically with 100% confidence.

That’s all true but it’s not like this is the first time the Conservatives have been riding high in BC federally. The Tories did very well in BC during the time of the 2005, 2009 and 2013 BC elections and the BC Liberals were led at the time by people who were very rightwing but who had strong federal Liberal pedigrees like Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark. Ironically, Kevin Falcon is the first federal Conservative to become leader of the B.C. Liberals and its under his leadership that that party is collapsing at the expense of the BC Conservatives

Maki is the only chance to reignited any left-wing change in the state of Israel.

who?

how 2027 shaping up?

[It's also only one electoral vote]

If Trump only flips GA, AZ, and NV, he gets to 268. So, what about NE 2? Could he win that also?

I think it's far more realistic for him to go after one of the big Midwestern battlegrounds. The newly redrawn NE-02 was already 3 to 5 points more Democratic than each of those states in 2020, and is almost certainly trending D much faster than all of them.

In fact, I'd put more effort into NM, ME-AL, and maybe even MN if I were Team Trump.

It's also only one electoral vote

And only leads to a tie in the scenario he wins it but loses the midwestern states. It's possible he wins it but I suspect he wins the 3 midwestern battlegrounds before taking back NE-2.

To the question whether it is safe... obviously no. But if the Biden team and supporters want to be overconfident going in election cycle, be my guest.

The point is if Biden wins the blue wall that one vote is crucial

Crimea+Donetsk+Luhansk going to Russia and Ukraine joining NATO (or some other defensive agreement that has teeth to ensure this doesn't happen again) is the absolute floor. Ideally of course, Russia leaving entirely and Ukraine joining NATO, but that seems unlikely.

this plus eu membership for ukraine