LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Calthrina950]

I say Tilt D in the runoff, but it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if Republicans run away with this.

Pity.

Luckily King Phil still waves the standard of the independent thinker up north.

Don't forget about Baker and Hogan. They sailed to victory last year, but Edwards is going to have to fight just to get a bare majority!

How can it be so close? Edwards is pro-life

Edwards is a communist, in the view of many Louisianians. All they see is the D after his name, and they care about nothing else.

Democrats (primarily white) like to feel enlightened so they vote for 'Moderate FF Republicans ' like Baker/Hogan in landslides.

Republicans are increasingly more tribal, getting their news from Hannity and Levin. Manchin (who underperformed the polls) and JBE are perhaps the last two left (if JBE even wins).

I'll disagree with you here. Baker and Hogan are genuine moderates; Manchin and Edwards are genuine moderates as well. But otherwise, you are correct. Just look at Tennessee and Oklahoma last year. Bredesen would have been an excellent Senator, but instead, Tennessee voters rejected him (in spite of the fact that they had given him a landslide as Governor previously and knew who he was), and put in the vile Blackburn. And Mary Fallin almost destroyed Oklahoma, yet Edmondson lost by double digits to Kevin Stitt anyhow.

[KaiserDave]

Ya'll are forgetting Phil. The true King and legitimate moderate.

[Calthrina950]

Last year it was Kavanaugh, now its impeachment. There's always an excuse. And yet in late 2017, at the peak of Trump's unpopularity, a Democrat only defeated a pedophile by 2 points in AL despite half of Republicans not showing up. Polarization is real, inelasticity is real, get the hell over it.

And in the Senate Races where Kavanaugh mattered Democrats lost. Manchin had the Courage to vote for Kavanaugh and won.

The courage? Manchin only voted for Kavanaugh to save himself electorally. Had he voted against Kavanaugh, he would have lost.

If Trump had recorded a video message attacking Manchin and aired it in WV he would have lost. Trump did not effectively campaign for Morrisey, probably because the polls showed Manchin too far ahead and he had multiple candidates to stump for. That won't be problem for Rispone.

You're right, but if Manchin had voted against Kavanaugh, that would have given Trump even more reason to do so. I don't think it can be denied that the Kavanaugh vote played a role in bailing Manchin out. And it definitely hurt Donnelly and Heitkamp, particularly the latter, with her sexual assault victims controversy.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Shocking to see rurals get even more Republican.

So so so very shocking.

[TWTown]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1183217204927651840?s=19
The LA GOP is a few seats short of a supermajority.

[Gass3268]

Runoff: Lean D ---> Likely R

Are you high?

[2016]

I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

Let's be real. The only reason JBE is Governor of Louisiana is because of David Vitter. Had he faced Agnelle he would have lost.

[IceSpear]

Shocking to see rurals get even more Republican.

So so so very shocking.

Only Mensa level geniuses could've predicted it.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Runoff: Lean D ---> Likely R

Are you high?

You’re right. Likely R is probably too generous to JBE unless Rispone is a pedophile

[Oryxslayer]

I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

Let's be real. The only reason JBE is Governor of Louisiana is because of David Vitter. Had he faced Agnelle he would have lost.

Nobodies disagreeing with you there. Same reason why Hogan is governor of Maryland and Dems picked up Kansas. Once you win though you have a record to run on.

[Calthrina950]

I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

Let's be real. The only reason JBE is Governor of Louisiana is because of David Vitter. Had he faced Agnelle he would have lost.

Nobodies disagreeing with you there. Same reason why Hogan is governor of Maryland and Dems picked up Kansas. Once you win though you have a record to run on.

But why is it that Hogan won by 11% last year, in a state that is just as heavily Democratic as Louisiana is Republican, while Edwards might lose?

[I Can Now Die Happy]

just finished this map.

Red = parishes where JBE barely overperformed or even underperformed Hillary (less than Hillary or 0-4% more than Hillary)
Orange = parishes where JBE somewhat overperformed Hillary (5-9% more than Hillary
Blue = parishes where JBE overperformed Hillary by around or over what he needed to win statewide (9+% more than Hillary)

Somewhat imprecise due to haste and basing things off of incomplete results

[SnowLabrador]

I told you guys the Republican would be favored in the runoff. It's Louisiana.

[Donerail]

Before I leave to see the mother of my future kid, I'll drop in a couple helpful links.

Bro: congrats on the sex, and thank you for telling us all.

[IceSpear]

I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

Let's be real. The only reason JBE is Governor of Louisiana is because of David Vitter. Had he faced Agnelle he would have lost.

Nobodies disagreeing with you there. Same reason why Hogan is governor of Maryland and Dems picked up Kansas. Once you win though you have a record to run on.

But why is it that Hogan won by 11% last year, in a state that is just as heavily Democratic as Louisiana is Republican, while Edwards might lose?

Because despite popular belief, the Republican base is far more partisan and inflexible than the Democratic base.

This is why I always laugh at "BLIMPF RLY CULD LOSE BY DOUBLE DIGITS!!!" hot takes.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Lean D but I was right to be nervous about this. Polarization is definitely at an all time high.

[Calthrina950]

just finished this map.

Red = parishes where JBE barely overperformed or even underperformed Hillary (less than Hillary or 0-4% more than Hillary)
Orange = parishes where JBE somewhat overperformed Hillary (5-9% more than Hillary
Blue = parishes where JBE overperformed Hillary by around or over what he needed to win statewide (9+% more than Hillary)

Somewhat imprecise due to haste and basing things off of incomplete results

Basically, this map shows that Edwards ran ahead of Clinton in New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and their suburbs, but behind her, or about the same as her, throughout much of rural Louisiana. Even the Bayou State is experiencing the same national trends of urban/rural polarization that have been felt throughout the country, as I predicted.

[TWTown]

I hope that what the Democrats take from this is that the next Democratic President should 100% hold rallies in off-year elections. There is no real downside.

[Pericles]

Remember the combined Republican vote in the 2015 jungle primary was 57%, and Vitter got 13% less of the vote than that.

[Calthrina950]

Remember the combined Republican vote in the 2015 jungle primary was 57%, and Vitter got 13% less of the vote than that.

This is not 2015 anymore, and Rispone doesn't have Vitter's baggage.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

just finished this map.

Red = parishes where JBE barely overperformed or even underperformed Hillary (less than Hillary or 0-4% more than Hillary)
Orange = parishes where JBE somewhat overperformed Hillary (5-9% more than Hillary
Blue = parishes where JBE overperformed Hillary by around or over what he needed to win statewide (9+% more than Hillary)

Somewhat imprecise due to haste and basing things off of incomplete results

Basically, this map shows that Edwards ran ahead of Clinton in New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and their suburbs, but behind her, or about the same as her, throughout much of rural Louisiana. Even the Bayou State is experiencing the same national trends of urban/rural polarization that have been felt throughout the country, as I predicted.

Some of those areas in the southeast where Edwards outperformed Hillary by quite a bit, are also rurals though. It seems it's proximity to New Orleans that matters. And apparently Ralph Abraham's district represents many of the areas where JBE barely overperformed or even underperformed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana%27s_5th_congressional_district

[Xing]

I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

Let's be real. The only reason JBE is Governor of Louisiana is because of David Vitter. Had he faced Agnelle he would have lost.

Nobodies disagreeing with you there. Same reason why Hogan is governor of Maryland and Dems picked up Kansas. Once you win though you have a record to run on.

But why is it that Hogan won by 11% last year, in a state that is just as heavily Democratic as Louisiana is Republican, while Edwards might lose?

Because despite popular belief, the Republican base is far more partisan and inflexible than the Democratic base.

This. Not sure why this is so hard for people to wrap their heads around. Both sides are not always equally bad.

[TWTown]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1183219098911682561 Where did he get 66% from?

[Calthrina950]

just finished this map.

Red = parishes where JBE barely overperformed or even underperformed Hillary (less than Hillary or 0-4% more than Hillary)
Orange = parishes where JBE somewhat overperformed Hillary (5-9% more than Hillary
Blue = parishes where JBE overperformed Hillary by around or over what he needed to win statewide (9+% more than Hillary)

Somewhat imprecise due to haste and basing things off of incomplete results

Basically, this map shows that Edwards ran ahead of Clinton in New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and their suburbs, but behind her, or about the same as her, throughout much of rural Louisiana. Even the Bayou State is experiencing the same national trends of urban/rural polarization that have been felt throughout the country, as I predicted.

Some of those areas in the southeast where Edwards outperformed Hillary by quite a bit, are also rurals though. It seems it's proximity to New Orleans that matters. And apparently Ralph Abraham's district represents many of the areas where JBE barely overperformed or even underperformed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana%27s_5th_congressional_district

So perhaps not a uniform effect, but the same general trends can be detected. And Abraham's district includes rural territory that is now very hostile to the Democrats, and that are very Trumpian in character.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Remember the combined Republican vote in the 2015 jungle primary was 57%, and Vitter got 13% less of the vote than that.

This is not 2015 anymore, and Rispone doesn't have Vitter's baggage.

This. If it comes out that Rispone had an affair with a prostitute instead of paying tribute to our troops at a given point of time, I will adjust the race accordingly. Until then it’s Safe R.

And no, it’s not impeachment. JBE was polling the same even before it all. Republicans just hate all democrats no matter how conservative they are on Blue Lives Mattering or Collin kaepernick standing up for the pledge or how pro life they are