LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[TWTown]

Interesting results ...

Looks like the Democratic vote will end up at 48% after all the missing precincts are in.

That’s up from 42% in 2015, when he ended up winning the runoff with 56%.

JBE needs to convince ca. 4-6% of those who voted R today to vote for him in the runoff.

Looks like it’ll end up at 47% and that’s being generous.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting results ...

Looks like the Democratic vote will end up at 48% after all the missing precincts are in.

That’s up from 42% in 2015, when he ended up winning the runoff with 56%.

JBE needs to convince ca. 4-6% of those who voted R today to vote for him in the runoff.

Looks like it’ll end up at 47% and that’s being generous.

47% is only JBEs result, there is also another Democrat with 1% in the race ...

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Good News everyone! Wulfric projected Rispone as the governor already, JBE is secure!

[smoltchanov]

Edwards probably ends the night at 47%. I don't think he can be totally counted out, but clearly the "Democrats would win if they were only more 'moderate'" talking point took another big hit tonight. I'd like to see some Edwards/Rispone polls, so I'll leave this as a Toss-Up for now, but this night definitely didn't go the way Edwards planned.

Of course - moderate Democrats can lose in conservative Louisiana. But that doesn't mean that "bold progressive" would have done better. On the contrary: most of Democratic candidates in downballot statewide races were more liberal, then JBE. Which percentage they got? Together - between 32 and 35% in all races (numbers very similar to Black percentage in the state, meaning that voting was, probably, very polarized by race, except governor race). Democrats absolutely cratered in Acadiana and around it (even conservative-leaning candidates were beaten badly), but former conservative Democrat, running for state House this time as Republican, beat an opponent, whom he lost as Democrat, rather decisively (letter after name was different). With rare exceptions (university cities) - all non-metropolian majority white southern areas became a "scorched Earth" zone for Democratic candidates. Any candidates: socially extremely conservative Milkovich lost to Republican too. Suburbs - another matter, but in Louisiana they are still relatively conservative and not that big (and, usually,  can't outvote almost 90% Republican rural areas).

Republicans gained considerably in state legislature, Only 2 white Democratic state Senators remain (Luneau and Smith, who was unopposed), the same tendency - in House. "Black party" and "White party" essentially..

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1183239713462935552

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol John Milkovich lost and he’s probably the most conservative legislator in the country. So much for “Dems need to stop stressing social issues and they can win”

[Calthrina950]

Lol John Milkovich lost and he’s probably he lost conservative legislator in the country. So much for “Dems need to stop stressing social issues and they can win”

The Democratic losses in Louisiana's legislature are another indicator of the uphill struggle Edwards now faces. Republicans just wiped out virtually all of the remaining rural Blue Dog holdouts. I expect them to do the same in Mississippi next month.

[Suburbia]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

At this point, Democrats can take a large red pen and mark off all the rural counties that voted (or will vote) for Trump and Republicans in 2016, 2018, and this year. And declare those counties terra incognita, or the unknown land. Write them off completely. They are never going to win those voters over. Democrats ought to apply a laser focus to the urban areas and suburbs. Many of the statewide results last year showed that Democrats do not need the rurals to win. Case in point-Virginia.

Democrats need to do a 1992 strategy of talking simply health care and jobs to the rural communities. Period.

[Xing]

Edwards probably ends the night at 47%. I don't think he can be totally counted out, but clearly the "Democrats would win if they were only more 'moderate'" talking point took another big hit tonight. I'd like to see some Edwards/Rispone polls, so I'll leave this as a Toss-Up for now, but this night definitely didn't go the way Edwards planned.

Of course - moderate Democrats can lose in conservative Louisiana. But that doesn't mean that "bold progressive" would have done better. On the contrary: most of Democratic candidates in downballot statewide races were more liberal, then JBE. Which percentage they got? Together - between 32 and 35% in all races (numbers very similar to Black percentage in the state, meaning that voting was, probably, very polarized by race, except governor race). Democrats absolutely cratered in Acadiana and around it (even conservative-leaning candidates were beaten badly), but former conservative Democrat, running for state House this time as Republican, beat an opponent, whom he lost as Democrat, rather decisively (letter after name was different). With rare exceptions (university cities) - all non-metropolian majority white southern areas became a "scorched Earth" zone for Democratic candidates. Any candidates: socially extremely conservative Milkovich lost to Republican too. Suburbs - another matter, but in Louisiana they are still relatively conservative and not that big (and, usually,  can't outvote almost 90% Republican rural areas).

Republicans gained considerably in state legislature, Only 2 white Democratic state Senators remain (Luneau and Smith, who was unopposed), the same tendency - in House. "Black party" and "White party" essentially..

I'm not saying that a progressive Democrat would have won, simply that it really doesn't make much difference in very red states, and that being "moderate" is not a silver bullet.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the runoff is a very close race.

51-49 for someone.

[Calthrina950]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

At this point, Democrats can take a large red pen and mark off all the rural counties that voted (or will vote) for Trump and Republicans in 2016, 2018, and this year. And declare those counties terra incognita, or the unknown land. Write them off completely. They are never going to win those voters over. Democrats ought to apply a laser focus to the urban areas and suburbs. Many of the statewide results last year showed that Democrats do not need the rurals to win. Case in point-Virginia.

Democrats need to do a 1992 strategy of talking simply health care and jobs to the rural communities. Period.

That won't make any difference. "We ain't voting for no Communists no more." That's what rural voters in Kentucky, Louisiana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Oklahoma, etc. are saying now.

[538Electoral]

Edwards will most likely win outright and avoid a runoff.

This aged like bad milk.

[IceSpear]

Lol John Milkovich lost and he’s probably the most conservative legislator in the country. So much for “Dems need to stop stressing social issues and they can win”

LMAO

JFC, didn't this guy AUTHOR the draconian abortion ban?!

[Tender Branson]

Edwards will most likely win outright and avoid a runoff.

This aged like bad milk.

I also thought he’d win outright ...

Just like I thought McCready would win by 2%.

It seems the rural areas in the US are trending even more Republican than I thought. 2 weeks ago, many rural areas in the Austrian parliamentary elections already had strong trends to the right despite rightwing scandal, but the US is even worse. I might have to create more R-leaning predictions in the future.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

At this point, Democrats can take a large red pen and mark off all the rural counties that voted (or will vote) for Trump and Republicans in 2016, 2018, and this year. And declare those counties terra incognita, or the unknown land. Write them off completely. They are never going to win those voters over. Democrats ought to apply a laser focus to the urban areas and suburbs. Many of the statewide results last year showed that Democrats do not need the rurals to win. Case in point-Virginia.

Democrats need to do a 1992 strategy of talking simply health care and jobs to the rural communities. Period.

Democrats actually largely ran on that in 2018 and look at what result they got in the rural areas. The simple fact is the majority of rural voters perceive Democrats as being against their interests; whether that’s fair or not is another thing. The same can be said for urban core voters and Republicans. Anyway voters are more partisan than ideological these days so it shouldn’t be shocking even moderates struggle to win in regions that strongly oppose their party.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol John Milkovich lost and he’s probably the most conservative legislator in the country. So much for “Dems need to stop stressing social issues and they can win”

LMAO

JFC, didn't this guy AUTHOR the draconian abortion ban?!

Indeed he did. He also bravely stood up to Colin Kaepernick’s kneeling and the gays and he still got mercilessly clobbered by polarization

[Calthrina950]

Edwards will most likely win outright and avoid a runoff.

This aged like bad milk.

I also thought he’d win outright ...

Just like I thought McCready would win by 2%.

It seems the rural areas in the US are trending even more Republican than I thought. 2 weeks ago, many rural areas in the Austrian parliamentary elections already had strong trends to the right despite rightwing scandal, but the US is even worse. I might have to create more R-leaning predictions in the future.

The same urban-rural divide has infected the entire Western World. And it will only get worse in time. McCready lost because of the rural areas; now it looks like they may doom Edwards.

[Skye]

Quite important that the vote was 51.8 R - 47.4 D. It's a bit disappointing for Edwards, but nothing too out of line with what polls showed.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Edwards will most likely win outright and avoid a runoff.

This aged like bad milk.

I also thought he’d win outright ...

Just like I thought McCready would win by 2%.

It seems the rural areas in the US are trending even more Republican than I thought. 2 weeks ago, many rural areas in the Austrian parliamentary elections already had strong trends to the right despite rightwing scandal, but the US is even worse. I might have to create more R-leaning predictions in the future.

The same urban-rural divide has infected the entire Western World. And it will only get worse in time. McCready lost because of the rural areas; now it looks like they may doom Edwards.

I think it’s safe for Democrats to concede all rural white heavy areas at this point and just devote all their attention on the suburbs and cities instead. No use chasing down voters who vote against their own economic interests because Sean hannity tells them to

[IceSpear]

Quite important that the vote was 51.8 R - 47.4 D. It's a bit disappointing for Edwards, but nothing too out of line with what polls showed.

Realistically, Landrieu should probably be put in with the D vote for obvious reasons.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Quite important that the vote was 51.8 R - 47.4 D. It's a bit disappointing for Edwards, but nothing too out of line with what polls showed.

The polls almost all showed JBE >= Abraham + Rispone. I don’t think any had the latter outpolling him by 5%. Doesn’t bode well!

[Tender Branson]

Quite important that the vote was 51.8 R - 47.4 D. It's a bit disappointing for Edwards, but nothing too out of line with what polls showed.

Realistically, Landrieu should probably be put in with the D vote for obvious reasons.

No, Landrieu is a rightwinger who used the nygger word.

He’s not from the Democratic Landrieus in LA ...

[IceSpear]

Quite important that the vote was 51.8 R - 47.4 D. It's a bit disappointing for Edwards, but nothing too out of line with what polls showed.

Realistically, Landrieu should probably be put in with the D vote for obvious reasons.

No, Landrieu is a rightwinger who used the nygger word.

He’s not from the Democratic Landrieus in LA ...

And you think the people who voted for him know that? They probably just voted based off the last name.

[Skye]

Quite important that the vote was 51.8 R - 47.4 D. It's a bit disappointing for Edwards, but nothing too out of line with what polls showed.

The polls almost all showed JBE >= Abraham + Rispone. I don’t think any had the latter outpolling him by 5%. Doesn’t bode well!

True, but it's LA. Edwards was polling from 45 to 48 in pretty much every poll taken during the final stretch of the campaign. And most people here didn't expect JBE to win outright. So the math kinda works. The only real surprise was the other 3 jokers getting less than 1% of the vote each so they weren't a factor.

[ltomlinson31]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1183253093712125954