A Second Chance - CONCLUSION

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Republican Primaries: March
With the coming of the South Carolina primary and Super Tuesday, Baker's chance came. Baker had been pouring funds into the state and into many key Southern primaries. While he won South Carolina easily, and swept much of the Upper South, Buckley was able to peel Virginia, Mississippi, Alabama, and Arkansas by close margins. Anderson was able to take all the Northern primaries by varying margins, though Buckley did put up a good fight in New England, Baker came in second in Maryland, and Paul in Washington. Despite Baker's success in the beginning of the month, he had come up short on Super Tuesday, even though he was leading Buckley in delegates. Over the course of the month, Baker's polling numbers began to fall. Meanwhile, in the two March post-Super Tuesday primaries, it was Buckley coming in second, and Anderson only narrowly won in Connecticut, which had been the state of his opponent's birth. Paul meanwhile had won a total of two primaries. Oklahoma which bordered his political home state, and of course Texas, which had been closer than expected. Nevertheless, Paul vowed to fight on.

Green-Congressman John B. Anderson of Illinois
Red-Senator Howard H. Baker, Jr. of Tennessee
Blue-Senator James L. Buckley of New York
Yellow-Governor Ronald E. Paul of Texas

Democratic Primaries: March
As with Baker, Clinton too was able to gain a lot of momentum off of Super Tuesday. However, he was able to keep the South much more unified. As opposed to what had happened four years ago, the main Southern candidate was able to keep both Southern whites and blacks as his constituency, stalling any hope Jackson had of winning victories in the Deep South. However, Moynihan was able to claim the "big states", Florida and Texas. Meanwhile, out West, McGovern was able to claim several victories, permanently stalling Brown's campaign. After losing the Alaska caucuses (having split the left-wing/libertarian vote with McGovern), Brown dropped out but declared he would not be endorsing any candidate. In the following March primaries, Moynihan won significant victories in Illinois and Connecticut, making him the front-runner, with McGovern on his left and Clinton on his right.

Red-Former Governor Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York
Blue-Governor William Jefferson Clinton of Arkansas
Green-Senator George Stanley McGovern of South Dakota

[MadmanMotley]

Really liking this timeline! Keep it up!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Really liking this timeline! Keep it up!

Thanks dawg. Glad to see people are reading this.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Republican Primaries: April
April proved to be the month that decided both parties' nominees. On the Republican end, Buckley was able to score early points with a victory in the Colorado Caucuses over Paul whose strength was one the wane, and with Anderson only in a distant third. However, in the first primary of the month, and the first race of real importance, the Wisconsin Primary, Anderson won a comfortable victory in a region that he'd proven strong in over the course of the primaries. Baker, for whom the media spotlight, polling numbers, and money seemed to have gone, dropped out on April 6th, the day after Wisconsin. However, the state everyone was watching was still on the horizons. New York, home of the famed four-term Governor and one-time Secretary of State Nelson Rockefeller, the state had long stood as a bastion of Republican liberalism in the New Deal Era. However, over the course of the late sixties and throughout the last two decades, conservatives including the Buckley Brothers, the New York Conservative Party, and others had been working hard to turn the state around. New York's Senate delegation of the time, comprised of the Conservative Party-backed Republican Al D'Amoto and the Republican/Conservative James Buckley, were proof of that. Going into New York, it seemed that Buckley and Anderson were neck-and-neck in the polls. While Buckley retained the endorsements of his colleague D'Amoto and the then-NYC Mayor John Esposito, Anderson nonetheless had the support of many of the state party's leadership, and found friends among some of New York's old liberal establishment, including the endorsement of John Lindsay. In a close race, Anderson, who had momentum and the benefit of a number of large New York donors, won the primary. From there, it seemed Buckley lost a lot of his will to fight on. Nevertheless, his campaign was still running and while Anderson claimed his next big victory, this time in Pennsylvania, Buckley won in Utah and Delaware.

Green-Congressman John B. Anderson of Illinois
Blue-Senator James L. Buckley of New York
Red-Senator Howard H. Baker, Jr. of Tennessee
Yellow-Governor Ronald E. Paul of Texas

Democratic Primaries: April
April was largely a runaway for Moynihan. While McGovern claimed victory in the Colorado and later Utah Caucuses, everything else was a Moynihan victory, spelling only doom for both McGovern and Clinton. First came Wisconsin, the state of traditional progressivism where Moynihan was nonetheless able to take the lead thanks to Catholics and labor which, though not endorsing a particular candidate, had many members that favored Moynihan when compared to McGovern. Then came New York and Pennsylvania where Moynihan, like Anderson, scored a one-two punch. Thanks to their sizable delegations and the ease with which Moynihan took them (for obvious reasons), by the end of April it was clear who would be the Democratic nominee. Clinton, wanting to get in the winners' good graces and to avoid spending money on a fruitless race, immediately dropped out after Pennsylvania while McGovern refused to surrender.

Red-Former Governor Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York
Blue-Governor William Jefferson Clinton of Arkansas
Green-Senator George Stanley McGovern of South Dakota

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The Conclusion of the Democratic Primaries
After April the only race Moyihan lost was in Washington D.C. where Jesse Jackson picked up his one primary win. Meanwhile, shortly after his dropping out, Clinton gave his proud endorsement to Moynihan, hoping both to unite the party and, more importantly, be selected for Vice President.

Red-Former Governor Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York
Blue-Governor William Jefferson Clinton of Arkansas
Green-Senator George Stanley McGovern of South Dakota
Yellow-Reverend Jesse Louis Jackson, Sr. of Illinois

Republican Primaries and the "Wikipedia" versions coming up soon!

[Enderman]

The primaries were posted on my birthday!!!

[GLPman]

Looking forward to the next update

[Niemeyerite]

I was hoping for a McGovern win.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The Conclusion of the Republican Primaries
While Buckley fought on throughout May and even June, and was able to use significant grassroots support and pick up fleeing support from Paul--whose campaign was rapidly losing momentum--he was relegated to the small states. Meanwhile, John Anderson won crucial victories in Ohio and in West Virginia (where the local Republican leadership, including Governor Arch Moore, supported him, and where he also received a cross-party endorsement from Jay Rockefeller). As well, Anderson achieved a >60% victory In the June primaries, Anderson won the state that mattered, California. While Anderson was far from a popular majority, he had a majority of delegates behind him. With that, Buckley called a press conference for early morning, June 15th.

Green-Congressman John B. Anderson of Illinois
Blue-Senator James L. Buckley of New York
Red-Senator Howard H. Baker, Jr. of Tennessee
Yellow-Governor Ronald E. Paul of Texas

[Niemeyerite]

Supporting Anderson here!

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

It looks as if I correctly prognosticated the Moynihan victory (in private) but the Anderson victory was a bit of a surprise! I guess it speaks to President Hatfield's personal popularity that he was able to assist in his victory.

I also wonder if Buckley actually did better in NYC than in Upstate New York.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Thanks for the comments!

It looks as if I correctly prognosticated the Moynihan victory (in private) but the Anderson victory was a bit of a surprise! I guess it speaks to President Hatfield's personal popularity that he was able to assist in his victory.

I also wonder if Buckley actually did better in NYC than in Upstate New York.

Anderson had an amount of Establishment support, some large donors, and some good luck to assist in his victory. He as well benefited from a split opposition, helping to pave his way first in Iowa then in several other primaries. Nevertheless, his victory does indicate a different Republican party than say eight or twelve years ago.

And as for the New York primary, I myself was wondering that as well.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

June 15th, 1988
Jim Buckley had spent a very large portion of his adult life as a key figure of the conservative movement. His victory over the Rockefeller faction of the New York GOP had been much celebrated by he and his contemporaries, both in and outside of the Republican party. In 1976, the nation's Conservative Senator was nominated not only by his own party, but also by the Republicans, to run for re-election. Buckley's narrow victory that year had solidified the merger between the Conservatives and Republicans, at least on a Senate level. Following re-inauguration in 1977, he had caucused with the Republicans and had been a staunch supporter of Ronald Reagan for the Presidency. Over the last eight years however, things had changed. Whereas the late 70's into the 1980's had represented the victory of the Right and of a new, Western and Southern Republican party combined with appeals to North-Eastern and Mid-Western blue collar workers, the rest of the decade was a wholly different story. In many ways it had begun in the 1960's as two activist factions had begun their ascendancies. While on the right there of course existed Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan, there was a different side to the story. The nomination of anti-war Republican George Romney in 1968 had been the worst fears of many of Buckley's colleagues. Nevertheless, Romney's loss had stemmed the tide of the "Romney/Hatfield/McCloskey" faction. Or so it had seemed. Nevertheless, while the conservatives had taken over the party's right, Hatfield and his lot had quietly--sometimes loudly--begun their takeover of the left. A clear example of this could be seen in the 1976 primaries as the centrist George Bush was beleaguered to his right by Governor Thompson and to his left by Senator Hatfield, then again in 1980 as Bush's ideological successor, Baker, fell into third while the conservative Reagan and the liberal Hatfield had battled it out. In 1988, the race that Buckley himself was just finishing up, the main battle, despite Baker's regional advantage, had been between himself and Anderson. However, the winner was clear, and it was the twelve years of association with the Grand Old Party that made Buckley grieve to see it choose Hatfield's path and not Reagan's. On the morning of June 15th, 1988, Senator James L. Buckley, Conservative (backed by Republicans) of New York stepped up to the podium outside his campaign headquarters in his home state.

"Over the last eight years, this country has seen many things befall it. Some good, some bad. At the beginning of the decade, Governor Ronald Reagan was swept into office amidst the failings of the dishonest Kennedy administration and the agitations of the disenfranchised McCarthy coalition. Despite this dramatic swing towards conservatism, the next two terms would be anything but. While yes, we have seen recovery under President Hatfield, largely due to his concessions to the conservative Republicans and moderate Democrats in Congress, not all is well. In 1987, America, after years of attempted decline under various leaders, at last succeeded in its capitulation with the ratification of the Nuclear and Ballistic Weapons Production Halt Treaty, the apple of President Hatfield's eye since his days in the Senate.  This white flag was, for all intents and purposes, America's surrender of the arms race. It was an agreement with the Soviet Union to cease the production of intercontinental ballistic missiles and weapons of the like. Given the Soviet Union's history of arms deals, once can easily see why this would be a foolish gesture. Such was only a symptom, however, of the administration's commitment to peace at the expense of strength, to non-violence in preference to justice. Nevertheless, the leaders of the Republican party stood idly by, happy to welcome this new change of pace in exchange for the electoral popularity they received during the early years of this administration. In social policy, meanwhile, Hatfield has been glad to oversee the moral decay of this once proud nation. While we did work together on several wise policies concerning this nation's expansive, expensive, and now thankfully gone 'War on Drugs', on several other issues we have differed and much of the time, he has won. Now, here we are in the year 1988. It was expected that after this administration, the GOP would eventually swing back to its center or right. Nevertheless, John Anderson, straight out of the President's wing of the party, and favoring nearly the exact same policies as he, has won the primary contests and will likely be nominated at the convention in New Orleans. While I was once a proud caucuser with this party in the Senate, and a glad partner in various pieces of legislation, I am no more. Today, I announce my candidacy as a member of the Conservative Party of New York and its national affiliate for President of the United States. In addition, I shall be caucusing with neither party in the Senate. I have already declined re-election in this, the Empire State, and will be leaving this body in January. Nevertheless, until then, I am duty bound to represent the people of this state and of the United States of America. Thank you."

Buckley, staying for a few questions from the press, replied that he had yet to decide on a running mate, though there were "several qualified individuals" of which he was considering. With that, John Anderson's campaign flew into a tailspin and his team quickly began trying to remedy this grievous turn of events.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

July 11th, 1988
After weeks of seeing falling poll numbers and an amount of undecideds fall into Buckley's column, the Anderson team finally was ready to release a short list for the Vice Presidential slot. Despite lacking the necessary number of pledged delegates, it was obvious that at the convention it would all fall into place. And due to that, the Anderson team acted as if he was the nominee. The short list had to reflect two things: one, Anderson's independence as well as his adherence to Hatfield's legacy, and two, his willingness to reach to the party's center and right in the name of unity. These two goals were largely exclusive. Nevertheless, he and his campaign worked tirelessly to compile the right names onto one sheet of paper.

Anderson Releases 'Short List'

"Today, Republican presidential candidate John Anderson released the list of potential Vice Presidential nominees with which to share a ticket for the November election. While one half of the list is comprised of well established as leaders of the Republican party and well known in the Senate, the other half seems to be an attempt to toss a bone both to the South and to conservative Republicans. None of the potential choices are those that supported Anderson in the primaries, names like Senator Pete Wilson of California and Governor Lowell Weicker of Connecticut.

• Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee
• Senator Bob Dole of Kansas
• Senator James Baker of Texas
• Senator Ross Perot of Texas
• Governor Carol Campbell of South Carolina
• Governor Bob Martinez of Florida
• Congressman John Paul Hammerschmidt of Arkansas
• Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Jack Kemp of New York

All appear to be qualified individuals, though the depth of that qualification varies greatly from, say Dole who has worked in national politics since 1960, and Campbell and Martinez who were two Southern Republicans to narrowly win their first gubernatorial elections last year. Insiders on the campaign have remained mum about who, if any, Anderson favors. Nevertheless, it is guessed that Hammerschmidt will be ruled out quickly due to both he and Anderson having only risen as far as the House of Representatives in politics.

Meanwhile, presumptive Democratic nominee Daniel Patrick Moynihan has still to release an official list. However, rumors abound in his campaign concerning the potential choices of Governor Bill Clinton and Congressman Dick Gephardt of Missouri. Senator Buckley has announced that he shall be announcing his choice shortly, claiming "No mere Vice Presidential pick by Anderson or any other candidate is going to stop this campaign. We were willing to sit back four years ago and be content with that, but no more." Meanwhile, pundits and the American public alike are still attempting to fully comprehend the rift that is occurring in the Republican party.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Geography had been a crucial part of the Moynihan campaign when it came to choosing a running mate. While the Governor had obvious appeal to the northern industrial states, the question was begged of the South and the West. Appeal to immigrants and Hispanics alone wouldn't carry the South-West. With that in mind, concentration shifted once again to the Old South. In recent years, the South had been in a state of rebellion in one form or another. Whether it was through unpledged electors, regional protest movements, third party candidates, or even backing Republicans, the once Solid South was not so solid. Even when they had run Bentsen against a northern Yankee social liberal like Hatfield, he'd somehow managed to best them in a small corps of Southern states. From Moynihan's experience, if he knew of one person who could turn on the Southern charm and had demonstrated such, it was Bill Clinton. Not only was it the support of nearly the whole South, but especially thick support in Appalachia and the upper South that made Clinton such a good candidate. Many on Moynihan's team saw what could potentially lock up nearly the entire eastern half of the country behind one ticket. Clinton's favorability ratings throughout the South were very good, and such a ticket would surely prove strong. And if not Clinton himself, then surely one of his surrogates, such as Senator Albert Gore of Tennessee, or Senator Jim Folsom Jr. of Alabama, would do the trick. However, there was the final third of the party. The left-wing activists, anti-war, socially liberal, and economically ranging from centrist to far left, had long been an alienated faction. With the continued weakening of candidates of that stripe--as displayed by McGovern's failure to truly compete with Moynihan and past primary performances by similar types--Moynihan saw no reason to go to great lengths to appease them at the expense of the South. He himself had made disparaging remarks about them in the past, including saying to a group of feminists "You women are ruining the party with your insistence on abortion". It was clear what electoral path Moynihan would pave, and it would be a decisive one for the future.

July 14th, 1988
"...and I wanted someone of unquestionable stature in American politics right now, someone with a platform of reform, a record of competence, and experience in numerous levels of government to prove it. When I had finally settled on my choice, it would be Governor William Jefferson Clinton of the great state of Arkansas!"

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

On July 18th, 1988, the Democratic National Convention opened in Atlanta, Georgia. With the Democrats angling to keep the South--and it looking likely that they would given John Anderson's approval ratings in Dixie--it was a good location to launch the party of Jackson's 1988 general election campaign. Lloyd Bentsen, officially retired from electoral politics, delivered a surprisingly strong denunciation of the last eight years under Republican leadership, criticizing the rising gas prices, America's apparently weakened foreign policy, and suffering economic growth. While historians would later make an on-balance positive appraisal of the Hatfield administration, such things didn't matter to the opposition party in 1988.

Meanwhile, Anderson was hard at work attempting to unite his party in the wake of right-wing defections. What he was sure to do was not to damage the brand he'd built up by appeasing the GOP's conservatives. There were essentially three different pools of choices to pick from for his running-mate. The first and the most obvious were conservatives. Of these, Anderson's team had selected a few one-term Governors that would add youth and right-wing support to his campaign. Governors Bob Martinez and Carol Campbell were both rising stars and despite having taken office in 1987, both had pre-gubernatorial careers that added depth to their resum'es. The second were of the "George Bush centrist" variety: experienced Senate members that had good ties to the 38th President. Despite being in political retirement, foreign policy disagreements had drawn the Texas transplant into the political fray and against Hatfield. The choice of either of the two Bakers (no relation) or Dole would certainly satisfy 38's criteria and add needed upper chamber experience to the ticket. Finally was the "maverick" pool of which there were few that made it to the final round of vetting. Jack Kemp, a favorite of conservatives, moderates, and centrists alike could appeal very much to the same voters that Anderson had ridden to the nomination on, as well as reach out to economic conservatives, "supply siders", "Reaganites" and--surprise--minorities. There was also the fiery Texan Ross Perot. Despite being fiscally conservative and socially liberal, Perot had little in common with all factions of the GOP. Anti-free trade, a deficit hawk, tough on crime, and yet pro-choice and in favor of environmental protection, Perot had friends in the party ranging from Pat Buchanan to Lowell Weicker and had a swath of enemies just as wide. His populist-oriented rhetoric combined with geographic location could bite into both the South and blue collar workers--two traditionally Democratic groups. At last coming to a decision, Anderson nevertheless chose to wait until the convention to unveil him.

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Coming onto stage, Anderson proudly unveiled his choice to be Vice President: Senator H. Ross Perot of Texas. The wily Texan strode onto stage with a grin as wide as his state, greeting the at first scattered and confused, then wildly enthusiastic applause happily. "Now, some folks out there say they haven't been too happy with the way the last eight years have been.", he started. "Well I'd like to hear their thoughts on the last time the Democrats had power and see if they'd like that better!" The crowd gave him a second standing ovation. Now, as some of you may know, I haven't agreed in full with the administration," Chuckles from crowd, "But I'll tell you what, things are looking a heck of a lot better with President Mark Odom Hatfield in power than they were under any Kennedy!" Perot, a man who during his eight years in elected politics had managed to piss off a majority of the establishment--Hatfield, moderate, and conservative alike--seemed poised to unite the GOP and set it on course for victory.

[Lumine]

I suppose that Perot doing so well in TTL was a sign that he would eventually get into a GOP ticket, but still, I did not see that coming. Besides, this is going to be really fun to watch: there's no election that can top having Moynihan, Anderson, Perot and Clinton in the ballot at the same time!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'm so glad this is back . Anderson/Perot is a great ticket, hopefully Buckley won't spoil things for them.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Great to see the TL that made me join is back!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Thanks for the compliments, folks!

Great to see the TL that made me join is back!

Had no idea that this thing had caused folks to join the forum. I'm quite touched. Hoping I won't let you down.

[Enderman]

bump...

[ask_not]

Bring  this all the way to 2012/

[Enderman]

Like PJ, I'm bumping some timelines that I like too... PHOENIX! RISE AGAIN! PLZ, THX

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

In choosing his running-mate, Buckley had the intention of causing as much trouble for the two major parties as possible. As with Eugene McCarthy's third party run in 1980, he too planned on choosing a fellow politician instead of an activist. Being from Republican ranks himself, his sights soon turned towards those across the aisle. Governor Ron Paul, Ambassador Pat Buchanan, and Congressman Jack Kemp would be traded out for Senator Jesse Helms, Congressman Larry MacDonald, and the like. However, also wanting to turn the page on segregationist and dog-whistle politics of the last few decades, Buckley wanted someone with a slightly newer national reputation. As well, Buckley being himself a Catholic and from the North, he wanted a Southerner with links to evangelicals and the Moral Majority. Finally, he found his man.

Congressman Phil Gramm was a former economics professor, a five-term Congressman from Texas, and a favorite of conservatives in his state. Despite having lost a crucial intra-party battle in a Senate race earlier that year, he was still popular with his party and--despite his conservative economic record--a Democrat. With Gramm none-too-happy with the his own party nominating the populist Ann Richards--someone with links to the Yarborough wing of the party--over himself, and having foregone re-election to run, when he first got a vetting call from the Buckley campaign, he was happy to take it.

Gramm as well satisfied another aspect of Buckley's goals beyond broad geography, ideology, and appeal. He was from Texas, a state both parties had been targeting--made obvious by Anderson's choice of Perot--and with Buckley himself hailing from New York, it was obvious the Conservatives were planning in playing in the big leagues. Though it was unrealistic, both Conservative ticket-mates were popular in their home states, and it would be very nice (for them) should they succeed in taking the two large states, both rich in electoral votes.

With Buckley choosing his running-mate, the stage was set for a contentious three-way race. While Anderson was running on an economically moderate-to-conservative, socially liberal, and somewhat dovish platform, Moynihan had staked his ground with labor, hawks, and some socially conservative elements. Buckley, attempting to steal from both sides, was meanwhile trying to take Moynihan's hawks and conservatives of all stripe to successfully drive a stake through a "broken" two party system. The Conservatives, for their part, had not nominated a man with appeal only to those in a narrow ideological spectrum. As a Senator from New York, he'd appealed to economically populist blue collar workers, socially liberal members of the GOP's moderate wing, and a host of other demographics to win in a liberal state not once but three times over the course of his career, twice with a majority. He had, in defiance of expectations, had supported the de-funding of the War on Drugs in the early 80's and the levying of tariffs on Japan in 1985. With that on his record, Buckley hoped to create broad appeal for the Conservative brand as he had in New York. Polls, however, were not so favorable.

Buckley's "Winning Map" as put together by campaign officials

Senator James L. Buckley (C-NY)/Congressman Phil Gramm (C-TX) 286 electoral votes
Gray: 252 electoral votes

Polling Map, September 1st, 1988

Former Governor Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY)/Governor William Jefferson Clinton (D-AR) 311 electoral votes (35 Safe, 276 Likely)
Congressman John Bayard Anderson (R-IL)/Senator Henry Ross Perot (R-TX) 144 electoral votes (3 Safe, 141 Likely)
Tossup: 83 electoral votes