Is Obama destined to lose reelection?

[White Cloud]

Republicans have been ceding about 250 electoral votes to the Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. Democrats have a solid bloc of states in the northeast, upper Midwest, and west coast that nets them about 250 electoral votes. Win those states and all the Democrat has to do is pick up another 20 EV's to win the election. Given that Obama is almost certain to win that bloc of states that every Democrat has won since 1992, the election will hinge on whether or not Obama can add to that bloc one of:

1) Virginia
2) Ohio
3) Florida

And/or add a combination of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada to put him over 270.

I think that Obama is in a good position to do that with the African-American vote in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada, the Hispanic vote in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, and the support that he has had in Iowa since his caucus win in 2008.

The big thing that Obama has going for him is the African-American vote. That is his firewall that will keep Republicans from being able to break through in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. It also helps him in a state like Virginia, where if he maximizes the African-American turnout, it makes that state more competitive.

[White Cloud]

Republicans have been ceding about 250 electoral votes to the Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. Democrats have a solid bloc of states in the northeast, upper Midwest, and west coast that nets them about 250 electoral votes. Win those states and all the Democrat has to do is pick up another 20 EV's to win the election. Given that Obama is almost certain to win that bloc of states that every Democrat has won since 1992, the election will hinge on whether or not Obama can add to that bloc one of:

1) Virginia
2) Ohio
3) Florida

And/or add a combination of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada to put him over 270.

I think that Obama is in a good position to do that with the African-American vote in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada, the Hispanic vote in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, and the support that he has had in Iowa since his caucus win in 2008.

The big thing that Obama has going for him is the African-American vote. That is his firewall that will keep Republicans from being able to break through in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. It also helps him in a state like Virginia, where if he maximizes the African-American turnout, it makes that state more competitive.

Considering that the Southwest has been trending towards the Democrats since at least 2000, I would say Obama only has to win Ohio, and he's won the election. To be honest I don't see where everyone's getting the idea that Obama is in a position to lose states like Michigan, Wisconsin and New Mexico, all states which voted for him by upwards of 55%.

I don't know how the EV's will change for 2012, but I believe that Obama will be able to get to 270 without Ohio, Florida, or Virginia. He would need to win the northeast bloc from DC to Maine (including New Hampshire), the upper Midwest bloc from Michigan to Minnesota, and the west coast bloc from Washington to California, including Hawaii. Then he would need to pick up Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada, all states that he won comfortably in 2008. I believe that would be enough for 270. He doesn't need Ohio or Florida. But just like in 2008, his campaign manager is going to construct scenarios where Obama can win with different combinations of states.

I think that Republicans speculate about winning rust belt states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin because they think that region is their best place to break into the Democratic bloc. They are probably right, too. They aren't going to break into California, Oregon, and Washington. They are dead as a party in the northeast, except for New Hampshire. But I think that in 2012 at least, the African-American vote in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and to a lesser extent Wisconsin, will be Obama's firewall, which will keep Republicans from being able to win those states.