Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Lief 🗽]

One other minor point:  The gender gap has gotten quite large over the past couple of weeks.

Does that mean anything? Or is it just an interesting observation?

[Lief 🗽]

Rasmussen state polling will be...

MS
McCain 52%
Obama 44%

TX
McCain 52%
Obama 43%

TN
McCain 58%
Obama 39%

TN really hates Obama, don't they?

TX and MS numbers look about right though.

[Lief 🗽]

Black vote in Rasmussen polls:
MS: Obama 98%-McCain 2%
TN: Obama 98%-McCain 2%

Disgusting....

Black vote for generic Democratic candidates:
D 92%, R 8%
D 92%, R 8%

ohnoes

[Lief 🗽]

PREDICTION:

MT- M+5
KY- M+12
NE- M+18
NM- O+8

[Lief 🗽]

Ah, the Palin bounce manifests itself.

[Lief 🗽]

Friday, October 10, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

I really, really, really hope this is true. If McCain can narrow Obama's lead to about three points before Election day and Obama is under 50%...well...we still have a chance at this thing...

Yeah! Bradley Effect! Woooo!

[Lief 🗽]

Friday, October 10, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

I really, really, really hope this is true. If McCain can narrow Obama's lead to about three points before Election day and Obama is under 50%...well...we still have a chance at this thing...

Yeah! Bradley Effect! Woooo!

Let me guess. You are one of those who assume the Bradley Effect is inheritantly racist?

The Dems always poll better than they vote, anway.

Yes it is and that's just false.

[Lief 🗽]

Not voting for someone because of the color of their skin is not racist now? k.

[Lief 🗽]

It's actually a 5.9 point lead, but the rounding on both ends helps McCain.

[Lief 🗽]

Probably a debate bounce.

[Lief 🗽]

Zarn and other Republicans, predictably bitter about the loss they're about t endure, are spreading this ACORN trash around to try and de-legitimize Obama's victory. ACORN, as anyone who paid any attention at all/isn't a hack will tell you, has not committed "voter fraud", and most of these fake registrations will not be accepted by the state Secretary of State offices. The few that get through will of course have no real human being to cast a vote in their name, so no voter fraud will occur.

Also, what the Republicans have done in the past few weeks is more socialist than anything the Democrats have ever advocated for or passed.

[Lief 🗽]

Guys, there's really no use arguing with him. Right-wing talking heads have told him that anything short of corporate oligarchy is socialism.

[Lief 🗽]

I think what we saw last week was a dead cat bounce for McCain.

[Lief 🗽]

So, Obama +7, McCain +1 in the past month. Damn. With 48% certain to vote Obama, there's really nothing McCain can do.

[Lief 🗽]

TIPP is trash. I'm inclined to believe this is an outlier, because nothing really happened that would swing the race in the past 24 hours.

[Lief 🗽]

And Zogby was awesome in 2000.

[Lief 🗽]

And Zogby was awesome in 2000.

Zogby is highly erratic. Tipp is not.

Tipp hasn't been proven wrong, either.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, they don't: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=86884.0

Which leads me to believe that Obama isn't really only leading by 3.

[Lief 🗽]

State polls always lag behind national ones. I wouldn't expect the ones released today to show any tightening much at all.

No, they don't. That doesn't make any sense, as has been pointed out on this forum many times before. They appear to lag behind them, because they're usually released later, but today's Rasmussen polls were conducted yesterday and released today.

[Lief 🗽]

So, I think Nate Silver reads this forum.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/myth-of-lag.html

[Lief 🗽]

I would be very happy if Obama reached 51% and won by at least 4%.

It's looking good for Obama, but it's going to be close.

Not really. I mean, historically, sure, but we won't be up much past 11 eastern.

[Lief 🗽]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

[Lief 🗽]

Very, very nice. I was dreading a drop in Obama's numbers today.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, Rasmussen was a major let down, in state polling at least, this election, and had a pretty noticeable Republican lean. Same with Mason-Dixon, except they were generally even worse.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't really care that Rasmussen underpolled Obama in Hawaii or Massachusetts or Alabama or something. Those were going to be blow-outs and no one cared. If you look at the swing states, then Rasmussen had a small, but consistent Republican bias of about 2-4 points. Same with Mason-Dixon, who really only did well in Florida (which, to their credit, they got exactly).