Ontario 2018 election (user search)
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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 203536 times)
King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #25 on: March 12, 2018, 04:53:17 PM »
Also, Tanya Granic Allen did best pretty much where I expected she would.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #26 on: March 12, 2018, 06:10:21 PM »
Quote from: Hifly on March 12, 2018, 05:41:15 PM
Which ridings would the OLP likely retain on 25% of the vote?

St. Paul's, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa South, Kingston for starters.

Ford kind of throws a monkey-wrench into simply transposing the previous numbers though...
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #27 on: March 12, 2018, 08:49:59 PM »
The silly things you read on Twitter:  Apparently Hoskins quit abruptly because he was he was afraid of having to face Christine Elliott in ST. PAUL'S.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #28 on: March 13, 2018, 02:45:25 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2018, 02:49:00 PM by King of Kensington »
Quote from: lilTommy on March 13, 2018, 06:46:07 AM
I think a good point of reference would be 2011 Federally; BUT Fords entry does throw this off.
I'd normally add Scarborough-Agincourt and Scarborough-Guildwood, But those are both in Ford-PC play now (more Agincourt then Guildwood).

Agreed, Agincourt would certainly be one of the Toronto first seats to fall to the PCs.  The federal Tories were able to get 40% in a by-election with the unknown Andrew Scheer leading them and Justin Trudeau being far more popular Kathleen Wynne leading them.  And Doug Ford is quite popular in the Chinese community.

On the other hand, I feel pretty confident saying that Don Valley West and Eglinton-Lawrence will stick with the Liberals. 
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #29 on: March 14, 2018, 02:18:31 PM »
Is Christine Elliott STILL talking about a St. Paul's run?  Even if she had been the leader, that would be a bigger risk than John Tory's DVW run in 2007.

ETA:  I suppose if she wants to be a loyal soldier but not actually have to serve under Ford, that makes sense.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #30 on: March 14, 2018, 02:20:25 PM »
Quote from: Krago on March 14, 2018, 02:16:09 PM
Interesting question: how many Brown-era PC candidates will quit (voluntarily or otherwise) now that Ford is Leader?

I read that he personally appointed about 60 candidates.  It seems like there's some room there for Ford to "clean house."
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #31 on: March 15, 2018, 09:55:14 AM »
Quote from: 🍁 Hatman on March 14, 2018, 11:10:11 AM
It'll be interesting to see what happens in York South-Weston. It's traditionally an NDP-Liberal swing riding (well, mostly just a Liberal riding recently), but it is a strong Fordnation area, so we may see a three-way race there. The Tories haven't won the riding since 1951.

When making Toronto riding projections how much does weight Ford's municipal vote vs. the past Conservative vote?
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #32 on: March 15, 2018, 06:14:40 PM »
Quote from: Filuwaúrdjan on March 15, 2018, 01:31:45 PM
How many card-carrying members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario can be honestly described in such terms? Three?

It's probably more of a petty bourgeois and nouveau riche vs. the Bay St. and country club types split.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #33 on: March 15, 2018, 07:41:24 PM »
Latest Ipsos:  PCs 39%, Liberals 32%, NDP 25%

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/global-news-Ontario-vote-poll-March-15-2018
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #34 on: March 16, 2018, 01:22:05 PM »
Canadian Conservatives aren't as "posh" as British Conservatives.  That being said, how much of the PC membership is working class? 
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #35 on: March 17, 2018, 03:13:22 AM »
BC = Canada's Australia
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #36 on: March 19, 2018, 01:24:49 AM »
If Ontario had BC parties, would Spadina-Fort York be the "False Creek" (condo-dominated, where the NDP can come close but not quite make it) and University-Rosedale be the "Point Grey" (enough academics and left-leaning professionals, students, renters etc. to put the NDP over the top over the mansion dwellers)?

(Of course imagining either Kathleen Wynne or Doug Ford leading a BC Liberal-type party is difficult).
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #37 on: March 19, 2018, 01:36:04 AM »
London's Kensington is more comparable to the old riding of Rosedale or Toronto Centre before Rosedale got lopped off. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/12/labour-kensington-general-election-london
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #38 on: March 19, 2018, 03:45:38 PM »
Christine Elliott to run in Newmarket-Aurora.

https://theribbon.net/2018/03/19/report-christine-elliott-to-run-in-newmarket-aurora/

That makes FAR more sense than St. Paul's.  If she ran there that would have made John Tory's DVW run look like a genius move. 
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #39 on: March 19, 2018, 10:08:22 PM »
90% likelihood of Woodbridge staying Liberal while the Tories dominate the rest of 905?  Not buying it.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #40 on: March 20, 2018, 03:13:17 PM »
And actually voting Conservative has proven to be much less of a problem in Woodbridge in the past than in York South-Weston. 

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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #41 on: March 20, 2018, 06:21:19 PM »
Quote from: lilTommy on March 20, 2018, 03:57:45 PM
Brampton Centre? Really Mammo, glad your leaving council but like Minnan-Wong. Brampton Centre just doesn't feel like a good fit for him; It has a growing South Asian community, over a quarter are South Asian. Brampton Centre or the old Springdale doesn't really have a PC/Con history, was won in 2011 under Harper, but was Liberal in 2008, and won back in 2015. Provincially has been Liberal since 2003. It does looks like somewhat of a swing riding, and if the NDP and OLP continue to poll about the same, PCs could sneak up the middle in a lot of swing ridings.

The PCs actually came third in the polls that are contained in Brampton Centre, behind the NDP.  Jagmeet Singh represented about 40% of these polls.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #42 on: March 21, 2018, 12:17:59 PM »
My FB feed today is filled with people flipping out about "Ford's huge rally."
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #43 on: March 21, 2018, 01:38:43 PM »
Quote from: Pandaguineapig on March 21, 2018, 01:33:09 PM
Since it's within range for the pc's and Wynne is so unpopular, what are the odds of Don Valley West changing hands?

Low.  DVW is the wealthiest riding in the province and Ford's populism doesn't appeal to a large number of "the elites and the establishment" that live there.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #44 on: March 21, 2018, 02:22:41 PM »
In terms of PC pickups in Toronto, I'd say the top of the list are Etobicoke North (loyalty to the Fords) and Scarborough-Agincourt (both Ford Nation enough and big-"C" Conservative enough, Chinese trending rightward and Doug businessman-populism having much appeal).  The new Don Valley North is probably next. 

And I guess Scarborough North, which Raymond Cho already sort of holds, so I'm not sure if that counts as a "pickup." 

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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #45 on: March 21, 2018, 03:42:27 PM »
I wouldn't place York Centre in the top tier, and certainly not ahead of Agincourt.  It's certainly possible for Ford to win there but it's not a slam dunk.

Ford underperforms among Jews, though admittedly not as much among Russian Jews (who are very PC anyway).  With Monte Kwinter leaving I don't see his (still sizeable but admittedly dwindling) constituency of Jewish voters bolting to Doug Ford en masse.

However it is possible that the PCs make up an underperformance among Jews with a stronger performance among other ethnicities, such as Italians and Filipinos.  Ford did very well in the Italian areas of the riding municipally.

Perhaps you're reading too much from the federal result?  Israel is not on the ballot provincially and if anything Kathleen Wynne has a stronger "pro-Israel" record than Ford (who may say platitudes about being pro-Israel but hasn't really done anything). 
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #46 on: March 21, 2018, 03:50:48 PM »
Interestingly it was York Centre and not Eglinton-Lawrence that Joe Oliver tried (unsuccessfully) to run for the PC nomination.  Both ridings are about 20-25% Jewish.

I'm guessing it was because he predicted (correctly) that Kwinter was going to retire and an open seat would be easier to win than going against Mike Colle?

Or maybe YC Jews are more right-leaning than Eg-Law Jews.
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #47 on: March 21, 2018, 03:55:38 PM »

Increased trade relations with Israel, speaking out strongly against BDS.  CIJA also held a dinner honoring Kathleen Wynne a few years ago.

This isn't to say that she's going to win Jewish votes for being pro-Israel.  I suspect it's a non-issue in a provincial election.  
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #48 on: March 21, 2018, 03:59:26 PM »
Whatever Doug Ford's personal views on Israel may be, he's more known in the Jewish community for telling a Jewish audience that "my doctor is Jewish, my lawyer is Jewish, my accountant is Jewish" and after being accused of stereotyping, lied about having a "Jewish wife."

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/10/06/doug_ford_booed_for_reference_to_jewish_lawyer_account_dentist.html

https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/toronto2014election/2014/10/07/doubt_cast_on_doug_fords_claim_of_jewish_wife.html
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,040
« Reply #49 on: March 21, 2018, 04:24:54 PM »
Quote from: mileslunn on March 21, 2018, 04:01:00 PM
I also think Monte Kwinter not running too makes the seat more vulnerable than it would have had he run.  Another example is St. Catherines with long time MPP Jim Bradley.  If he weren't running, that would be pretty much a sure PC pick up whereas with him the Liberals at least have a shot.

Yes, Kwinter retiring does "free up" some votes.  But making the jump to Doug Ford will likely prove more difficult than a Christine Elliott-led PC Party would have for Kwinter's Jewish voters.

Again not impossible for York Centre to go PC at all, but I don't think it's top of the list either.

BTW the PC vote in York Centre was behind Scarborough-Agincourt, Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, Willowdale and two Etobicoke seats in 2014.  
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