Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

My Toronto list.  I'm counting Scarborough North as PC incumbency.

Most likely PC pickups:

Etobicoke North
Scarborough-Agincourt

Very much in play:

Don Valley East
Don Valley North
Etobicoke Centre
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough-Rouge Park
Scarborough Southwest
York Centre

Less likely:

Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Humber River-Black Creek
Willowdale
York South-Weston

Probably not:

Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence

Definitely not:

Beaches-East York
Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
Spadina-Fort York
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre
Toronto-Danforth
University-Rosedale

[King of Kensington]

Need to think through the "very much in play" category a bit.  Don Valley North would likely top that list, a few MPPs like Mitzie Hunter and Michael Coteau may get a bit of reasonably popular incumbent advantage.

[King of Kensington]

Davenport is in play for the NDP.  It is split between a more "urban progressive" south and working class Italian/Portuguese north. 

Ford actually won the northern half of the riding (Ward 17) municipally, while Ward 18 went to Olivia Chow. 

If Ford pulls away some votes in the north, that helps the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

Davenport is the most likely pickup for the NDP.  Other possibilities include Beaches-East York, York South-Weston and Humber River-Black Creek, mayyybe Scarborough Southwest.  University-Rosedale also has a lot of very good NDP territory (2/3 that came from Trinity-Spadina) but hits a brick wall in the "Rosedale" part. 

University-Rosedale is in Ford-ian terms "Establishment and Elites" - it includes the intellectual elite in the Annex and the old money elite in Rosedale.   With Ford on the ballot, it's harder for the NDP to win because the the PCs will be weaker in the Rosedale part.

[King of Kensington]

With East Indians mixed bag, but I've found much like in the UK, the Tories do best amongst Hindus, while struggle with Sikhs and Muslims.

Yes, and this evident with JT's India trip and accusations of Jagmeet Singh being a secret Kalistani extremist (or at least unwilling to condemn).  The Tories base in the Indian community is the Hindu community, and they pretty much take a pro-Modi government line.  They don't have much to lose among Sikhs and Hindus.  The Liberals are more careful because they don't want to alienate their base in the Sikh community while at the same time exploit Singh's vulnerability there.

[King of Kensington]

Is it just me or has Election Prediction Project really jumped the shark (thanks to the idiocy of "Not Non-Partisan" and "jeff316")?

[King of Kensington]

I can't tell if NPP is a genuine idiot or a troll, but his attempt to argue that PCs are going to win in every riding which includes territory where the PCs won in 1995 is pretty hilarious.

University-Rosedale:  Everybody wrote off Al Leach in '95.

Parkdale-High Park:  All these disaffected Liberals are going to bolt to the Tories because of Kathleen Wynne's shift to the left...vote-splitting often benefits the Tories, look at Darwin Shea in '95.

St. Paul's:  Hoskins quit because he knew he wouldn't be re-elected...Tories could run a yellow dog and win.

[King of Kensington]

I think that is the problem in Canada is many want Scandinavian style programs but without the taxation they have on the middle class.

That's very true.  The Nordic welfare states are financed by so-called "regressive" taxes but all that revenue has a redistributive outcome.  Of course the top marginal rates are higher too, but overall the Scandinavian tax system is actually flatter than that of the US.  I would argue that the net impact of the tax system in Scandinavia is more progressive.

If you want Scandinavian social democracy you have to tax the middle earners more too.  One strength of the Scandinavian system is that the middle classes actually have a stake in the welfare state too. 

[King of Kensington]

Actually not totally true, but somewhat...

Don't forget though that the top marginal tax rates kick in at much lower levels than they do in Ontario/Canada.  Sweden's top rate applies at about CDN$100,000 for example.

Higher tax jurisdictions in the US like New York and California have top marginal rates above 50%, but you have to be in the top 0.5% or so.  Americans think everybody is middle class, so they tend to put their "fat cat" taxes on a tiny of people almost nobody knows.

[King of Kensington]

I want to see the end of the Catholic school funding, as do most Ontarians.  Unfortunately no party that sees itself in contention for government is willing to touch it. 

Maybe the best strategy is to "de-Catholicize" the system by getting rid of the discriminatory hiring practices and forbidding separate schools to prioritize Catholic enrollment (though I know they've been increasing non-Catholic enrollment in recent years).  Then eventually the "historically Catholic" schools merge in with public.

[King of Kensington]

I think the NDP platform got exactly the "endorsement" they wanted from the Globe and Mail:  it's a solid left-wing document, but it's not for us!
 
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-globe-editorial-the-ontario-ndp-goes-all-in-with-its-election/

[King of Kensington]

I presumed it was a "1990 doesn't count" question, rather than one of those rare few who might have switched *to* the NDP in 1995...

There were four ridings where the NDP received more votes in 1995 than in 1990:

- Cochrane North
- Cochrane South
- Parry Sound
- Sault Ste. Marie

They would have been re-elected easily if it hadn't been for those other 126 ridings.

Re:  Sault Ste. Marie.

1) NDP government saved Algoma Steel

2) The Soo has weird voting patterns

[King of Kensington]

I thought Andrea Horwath rocked the City TV debate.

[King of Kensington]

Their is a leaders debate tomorrow in Parry Sound on Northern policies. 

https://www.parrysound.com/news-story/8592643-wynne-ford-and-horwath-debate-in-parry-sound-friday/

Will they address the question of whether Parry Sound is "really" part of Northern Ontario?

[King of Kensington]

I would add Hamilton West-Dundas-Ancaster as a possibility for the NDP if things go well.  It's in Andrea Horwath's backyard and is kind of like the "London West" of Hamilton (the affluent/educated seat where Fordian populism doesn't go over well).  

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, Flamborough-Glanbrook is a bit like Durham.

[King of Kensington]

Thread drift: Why do people have such a ridiculously extensive definition of "downtown" Toronto anyway?  There's really only three ridings that are downtown (and even those aren't entirely downtown if we use the already generous official definition of Bathurst to Don River, below CPR tracks and Rosedale Valley).

Not sure why High Park, the Beaches and Yonge and Eglinton are "downtown" except being part of the city of Toronto pre-1998.  Is Kitsilano in "downtown" Vancouver?  Is NDG in "downtown" Montreal?  

[King of Kensington]

In the 416 it is possible for the Liberals to come in first in votes and third in seats like they did in 2011 federally as their support is evenly spread out, while NDP mostly in old city and PC's in suburbs.

Also how much does Ford mess up the traditional map?  He likely underperforms in ridings like DVW and Eglinton-Lawrence, and overperforms in Scarborough, York-Weston and of course north Etobicoke.

[King of Kensington]

It would make more sense to refer to "inner Toronto" to mean old Toronto, York and East York and outer Toronto to mean Scarborough/North York and Etobicoke

I strongly agree.

[King of Kensington]

Both Wynne and Horwath say it's too early to talk about a coalition, but neither rule it out

[King of Kensington]

Guelph is basically Kingston's more crunchy granola twin.  It could go NDP under the right circumstances, but the Greens are cutting significantly into the constituency they would appeal to.

[King of Kensington]

What does Ipsos define as Central Ontario?

[King of Kensington]

What does Ipsos define as Central Ontario?

Everything in the L postal code area outside Halton/Peel/York/Durham.

Niagara/Hamilton/Simcoe/Peterborough

OK, that makes sense.  That's the "old" definition of Central Ontario, back when it mean between Eastern and Western Ontario.  In recent years it has become more synonymous with Cottage Country.

(Though Peterborough is "K").

[King of Kensington]

It would be nice if the Liberals hold their vote in the north Toronto ridings that John Tory dominated municipally and Doug Ford bombed in.  But I don't even know if that can happen at this point given anti-Liberal sentiment at this point.

[King of Kensington]

Hmm, wonder if we get a May/Corbyn style result. That would make for an interesting map.

Yes.  Corbyn did very well in urban districts with a lot of educated middle classes and young people, areas the NDP strategists basically dismissed as a bunch of out of touch latte sippers or something.
It's not the dominant but it's nonetheless an important pillar of a social democratic path to victory.  

This time it's different.  Jessica Bell, the candidate in University-Rosedale, is getting a lot of press and attention (she introduced Andrea Horwath at the platform launch and is going to be representing the NDP on The Agenda this evening on a discussion about transit issues.)

Lots of social democratic and center-left parties have been impacted by a blue collar/professional split, but it doesn't have to be that way if you have policies and messaging that's appealing to both.

ETA:  Yes, I modified this post because I was annoyed that I didn't include the closing bracket.