The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

[RogueBeaver]

Kennedy speaking in PA.

[Mr. Morden]

Fox News asks Castro and Garcetti when they're going to decide on whether to run for prez:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/05/09/with-clinton-out-picture-stampede-2020-dems-hits-new-hampshire.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Booker will do a red state farmers tour soon.

Also from that story:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[MAINEiac4434]

This is the reason why I reckon Biden either won't run, or will drop out very early. I have a great deal of respect for him, but he appears to have the same tone deafness that Hillary had

Super cool how, decades after his plagiarization of Neil Kinnock torpedoed his first Presidential bid, Biden thought it would be a good idea to appropriate the One Nation Labour schtick for whatever reason.

On his deathbed he’ll start quoting Corbyn.

[MAINEiac4434]

What is the thing about Patrick? Why do they want him so much?

Because he won’t take their money.

[MAINEiac4434]

Joaquin Castro keynoting Maine’s Convention.

[MechaBambi]

Joaquin Castro keynoting Maine’s Convention.

Joaquin's not running for anything besides re-election.

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich says he wants to build a “rational” coalition, and says he might campaign for such rational candidates this year if they want his help:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2018/05/11/kasich-rational-coalition-mulls/34807677/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[MAINEiac4434]

Joaquin Castro keynoting Maine’s Convention.

Joaquin's not running for anything besides re-election.

But he may be a surrogate for his brother.

[Politician]

Kasich says he wants to build a “rational” coalition, and says he might campaign for such rational candidates this year if they want his help:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2018/05/11/kasich-rational-coalition-mulls/34807677/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Kasich certainly is not a 'rational' governor, and I presume it's a 'bipartisan' ticket where he selects a D as his running mate.

[MechaBambi]

According to the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" column, Kamala Harris is seen by the GOP as the most likely to win the nomination.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/kamala-harris-seen-as-top-2020-democrat-by-gop

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Only one such "top Republican" is quoted, so take it with a grain of salt. I will say that I have noticed conservative outlets (like the Examiner) going after Harris with increasing frequency in recent months. Same is true with Sanders.

[Da2017]

According to the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" column, Kamala Harris is seen by the GOP as the most likely to win the nomination.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/kamala-harris-seen-as-top-2020-democrat-by-gop

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Only one such "top Republican" is quoted, so take it with a grain of salt. I will say that I have noticed conservative outlets (like the Examiner) going after Harris with increasing frequency in recent months. Same is true with Sanders.

They doing to it to Gillibrand to some extent.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mitch Landrieu said on TPT tonight that he is not thinking about 2020, but won't rule anything out.

[MechaBambi]

Wondering why you haven't heard much about a potential Luis Gutierrez campaign since he put out some hints last November? Well, here's your answer:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gutierrez-passes-on-presidential-run
https://soundcloud.com/siriusxm-news-issues/rep-luis-gutierrez-d-il-on-why-he-wont-be-running-for-president/s-y3ie1

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Would've been an interesting case study in just how far an intensely Latino-focused strategy can take you in the Democratic primaries. I always thought that if he did run, it would only be to increase the salience of immigration as an issue, not to actually win. Maybe he figured he didn't need to run in order to do that.

[henster]

Wondering why you haven't heard much about a potential Luis Gutierrez campaign since he put out some hints last November? Well, here's your answer:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gutierrez-passes-on-presidential-run
https://soundcloud.com/siriusxm-news-issues/rep-luis-gutierrez-d-il-on-why-he-wont-be-running-for-president/s-y3ie1

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Would've been an interesting case study in just how far an intensely Latino-focused strategy can take you in the Democratic primaries. I always thought that if he did run, it would only be to increase the salience of immigration as an issue, not to actually win. Maybe he figured he didn't need to run in order to do that.

Julian Castro will try this although I'm not sure how successful it will be from a non-fluent Hispanic. Garcetti is fluent and 'Hispanic' will try to aggressively go for the Latino vote but I think people will still view him as Anglo.

[History505]

Wondering why you haven't heard much about a potential Luis Gutierrez campaign since he put out some hints last November? Well, here's your answer:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gutierrez-passes-on-presidential-run
https://soundcloud.com/siriusxm-news-issues/rep-luis-gutierrez-d-il-on-why-he-wont-be-running-for-president/s-y3ie1

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Would've been an interesting case study in just how far an intensely Latino-focused strategy can take you in the Democratic primaries. I always thought that if he did run, it would only be to increase the salience of immigration as an issue, not to actually win. Maybe he figured he didn't need to run in order to do that.

Gives more room to Garcetti and Castro.

[Mr. Morden]

The WaPo has a new story on the invisible primary, and mentions among other things that Howard Schultz 2020 may not be dead after all:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/no-one-has-a-leg-up-in-wide-open-2020-presidential-field-democrats-jockey-to-define-their-party--and-gain-an-advantage/2018/05/12/42ba34f2-5547-11e8-9c91-7dab596e8252_story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/995390751323418624

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/may/12/former-obama-housing-secretary-to-deliver-graduati/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Mr. Morden]

Kander's in New Hampshire, where he responds to the 2020 question:

http://www.wmur.com/article/several-big-name-democrats-make-appearances-in-nh-this-weekend/20672407

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Ratamas]

Why is color of Republican Party blue and Democrat Party red?

[Mr. Morden]

WaPo makes some subjective judgments of who is dropping enough hints to qualify as "acting like a candidate" and who is simply "keeping options open":

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/2020-presidential-hopefuls/?utm_term=.8c93e8ff5759

Most notable omission is Martin O'Malley, who is engaged in a very blatant case of "running for president without having formally declared yet".  Not sure what else he's supposed to do for the media to acknowledge his existence.

Also weird that they include businesspeople like Sheryl Sandberg, but don't mention Tom Steyer.  Steyer seems like the most likely of all the "non-politicians" to run.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why is color of Republican Party blue and Democrat Party red?

On this forum it's so that the colors can better correlate with the international associations between left and right. In most countries red represents parties that are affiliated with some sort of left-wing ideology and blue typically represents a right-wing political party.
The only reason we use the opposite here is because of the 2000 election and the colors that were arbitrarily used that year for Bush (red) and Gore (blue). People got so used to seeing those colors as the election results continued to be disputed for nearly a month, that they have just sort of been accepted by this point by the parties and most Americans.

[Mr. Morden]

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/387733-julian-castro-ill-announce-possible-presidential-run-by-end-of-the-year

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[gerritcole]

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/387733-julian-castro-ill-announce-possible-presidential-run-by-end-of-the-year

You must be logged in to read this quote.

he's really running for vp

[Mr. Morden]

de Blasio:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/de-blasio-message-dems-find-courage-tax-rich-n874491

You must be logged in to read this quote.