Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-NEOS-Greens or ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ("Dirndl", or "Watermelon"-Coalition) would actually be my preferred government, ideologically.

I think the fall election will be a structural one: Currently, about 70% of Austrians think that economically they are well off. That is the highest number since pollster SPECTRA started their quarterly polling on this topic. Not surprising after GDP growth rates of 3% or so over the past 2 years.

During times of good economy, voters tend to vote more for bourgeois parties like the ÖVP, NEOS and Greens and less for working-class parties such as the SPÖ or FPÖ (now even less so).

I think a majority of ÖVP-NEOS-Greens is fairly likely, in the 55% range or something.

[Tender Branson]

Walter Pöltner, another SPÖ-member and former Health Ministry official, to become the new Social Minister:



If Kurz really has picked 3 SPÖ-affiliated people as new cabinet members, I think the SPÖ will drop their no-confidence threat against him. But who knows ?

[Tender Branson]

What happens if there is a motion of no confidence?

Kurz resigns as Chancellor and President VdB appoints a new interim Chancellor of his choosing until the new government is sworn in (in ca. 6 months).

[Tender Branson]

President VdB today dismissed all FPÖ cabinet members except Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl (an Independent presented by the FPÖ). She has said she would like to continue over the next months and VdB accepted.

Wait, so the woman who had Putin show up at her wedding is the only FPÖ member who gets to stay in Cabinet following a scandal in which her party leader was caught attempting to collude with Russian interests?

To be fair: Karin Kneissl is not an FPÖ-member, but an Independent diplomat who speaks like 8 different languages and has lived in the Middle-East for years (the FPÖ appointed her as Foreign Minister). Kneissl invited Putin to her wedding yes, and he accepted and came and they danced together (she said it was good manners).

[Tender Branson]

President Van der Bellen will meet with the new cabinet members today for a brief overview and a little talk with them about their qualifications and then swear them in.

We'll see if something else happens today or not, but it would be nice if things were to focus more on the EU election on Sunday again ...

[Tender Branson]

The new cabinet was sworn in today by President Van der Bellen and after that a cabinet council meeting took place.

The interim cabinet has only 14 instead of 16 members, as Strache‘s agendas (Sports and Civil Servants) have gone to Bogner-Strauß and State Secretary Fuchs was not replaced. Now there are 8 men and 6 women vs. 10-6 before. Finance Minister Löger did become the new Vice-Chancellor.

Norbert Hofer was not only chosen as interim FPÖ leader, but also as frontrunner for the September election, they said today.

[Tender Branson]

Does a lawyer from Vienna and a detective from Munich have something to do with the Ibiza trap ?

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/oesterreich-heisse-spur-im-ibiza-beben-war-es-dieser-anwalt-62095558.bild.html

[Tender Branson]

Nina Tomaselli likely to lead the Greens into the election and probably back into parliament.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/nina-tomaselli-als-gruenen-spitzenkandidatin-im-gespraech/400502236

[Tender Branson]

Would the newly appointed ministers be gone on Monday if Kurz loses the Nationalrat vote?

This depends on the exact wording of the no-confidence vote initiated by the party NOW on Monday:

If the text says no-confidence against Kurz only, or no-confidence against the whole government.

In the first case, only Kurz would step down as Chancellor and be replaced by President VdB with an interim Chancellor (even though it is possible that some other cabinet ministers also resign in such a case).

In the second case, the whole cabinet would resign and be replaced by a selection of people from VdB.

[Tender Branson]

Does a lawyer from Vienna and a detective from Munich have something to do with the Ibiza trap ?

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/oesterreich-heisse-spur-im-ibiza-beben-war-es-dieser-anwalt-62095558.bild.html

It’s almost sure now that the 2 are responsible.

https://derstandard.at/2000103643828/Mutmasslicher-Drahtzieher-des-Ibiza-Videos-war-in-Muenchner-Anwaltskanzlei-Untermieter

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Anwalt-und-Detektiv-legten-die-Video-Falle/381262563

They apparently wanted to sell their material for 5 million €, but it’s unclear how much they got for it.

Now, both people have disappeared ...

[Tender Branson]

Some of what happened today:

* Kickl attacked President VdB as a "power enabler" for the ÖVP and told reporters that he will get back and take a seat in parliament to become FPÖ group speaker. Strache will not go back to parliament, he said. Gudenus has already resigned his seat in parliament. No word if Norbert Hofer or other former FPÖ cabinet members will take seats in the Nationalrat.

* The new cabinet members started their work today and the new Interior Minister Eckart Ratz will already have a prominent role on Sunday, when he will present the results of the EU elections at 11pm.

* The sign "Departure Center" was removed from the Traiskirchen refugee camp today. Kickl had previously ordered the biggest refugee acceptance center in Austria to be re-named to departure center. The last executive decree that Kickl presented before he was ousted was to lower the pay for asylum seekers doing vaoluntary community work to 1.5€ per hour (a key FPÖ-policy). Not sure if this will be suspended as well by the new Interior Minister.

* Chancellor Kurz met with key opposition people today (he actually invited all opposition leaders, but only the NEOS one attended his meeting).

* The ÖVP has a chance to delay the no-confidence vote on Monday by 2 days, but decided not to do so. SPÖ and FPÖ announced that they will only decide about their vote shortly before the no-confidence vote on Monday.

[Tender Branson]

Some of what happened today:

* Kickl attacked President VdB as a "power enabler" for the ÖVP and told reporters that he will get back and take a seat in parliament to become FPÖ group speaker. Strache will not go back to parliament, he said. Gudenus has already resigned his seat in parliament. No word if Norbert Hofer or other former FPÖ cabinet members will take seats in the Nationalrat.

* The new cabinet members started their work today and the new Interior Minister Eckart Ratz will already have a prominent role on Sunday, when he will present the results of the EU elections at 11pm.

* The sign "Departure Center" was removed from the Traiskirchen refugee camp today. Kickl had previously ordered the biggest refugee acceptance center in Austria to be re-named to departure center. The last executive decree that Kickl presented before he was ousted was to lower the pay for asylum seekers doing vaoluntary community work to 1.5€ per hour (a key FPÖ-policy). Not sure if this will be suspended as well by the new Interior Minister.

* Chancellor Kurz met with key opposition people today (he actually invited all opposition leaders, but only the NEOS one attended his meeting).

* The ÖVP has a chance to delay the no-confidence vote on Monday by 2 days, but decided not to do so. SPÖ and FPÖ announced that they will only decide about their vote shortly before the no-confidence vote on Monday.

Already suspended.

I also suggest redoing the Austrian flag and placing "Willkommen" in the middle.

Definitely a new great beginning!

The FPÖ still has some chance left to get 20%+ on Sunday if they push this message in the final days, drowning out the negative messages against them.

The reduction of voluntary pay for asylum seekers is fairly popular and taking it back fits the FPÖs „asylum chaos“ posters.

I really don’t know how they will do in the election: they could get 12% or 24% ...

[Tender Branson]

Demox Research poll on Chancellor Kurz's no-confidence vote (n=1.250):

25% Kurz should be voted out of office
64% Kurz should remain in office

ÖVP-voters: 98% Kurz should remain
FPÖ-voters: 54-32 Kurz should remain
SPÖ-voters: 40-48 Kurz should be voted out of office
NEOS-voters: 82-11 Kurz should remain

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/liveticker-tag-fuenf-nach-ende-der-koalition/400502788

[Tender Branson]

Does a lawyer from Vienna and a detective from Munich have something to do with the Ibiza trap ?

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/oesterreich-heisse-spur-im-ibiza-beben-war-es-dieser-anwalt-62095558.bild.html

The picture is getting clearer:

The lawyer from Vienna (in fact, the lawyer of the lawyer) said yesterday that it was "participation in a project in the interest of civil society", basically confirming that his client played a role in setting up the trap and the videos on Ibiza.

The suspected lawyer and the detective already tried to hand over material to the SPÖ about Strache ahead of the 2017 election, but the SPÖ guy refused the offer.

They probably also offered samples to various media in the German-speaking countries, so that's probably why Böhmermann already knew about the videos months ago ...

Here is the lawyer (on the right), Ramin Mirfakhrai (with Iranian migration background) + the Munich-based detective with Vienna roots Julian Hessenthaler (on the left):



Strache has filed a lawsuit against the 2 guys in the meantime.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Ibiza-Videos-Anwalt-gesteht-Mitwirkung/381610952

[Tender Branson]

Ramin Mirfakhrai (with Iranian migration background)

This is hilarious:

The name Ramin is of Arabic origin and means "Rescuer From Hunger And Pain. Brings Joy."

[Tender Branson]

Philippa Strache has abandoned her husband and moved back in with her parents and their newborn son Hendrik:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Philippa-Strache-ist-mit-Kind-ausgezogen/381024623

#Cuck

Meanwhile, Philippa Strache has denied rumours that she has moved out and said that she's "of course" still together with H.C.

https://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Philippa-Strache---Ich-bin-nicht-ausgezogen---55789794

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ & FPÖ are more and more likely to get rid of Kurz (and even the whole cabinet) on Monday:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/parlament-neben-kanzler-droht-auch-tuerkisen-ministern-die-abwahl/400505644

VdB should probably compile a list of interim Chancellor and expert ministers over the next 2 days ...

[Tender Branson]

If Kurz is no longer Chancellor after next week, I would think that would hurt the OVP's chances to hit the high 30's in support levels in the September election, without the prestige of a popular incumbent chancellor leading the party.

Obviously, a number of factors will come into play by September - but yeah, if Kurz gets removed by parliament tomorrow, it could hurt him because as Chancellor he has a unique position to present himself (international meetings with other leaders etc.)

On the other hand, it could not impact him all too much, because Kurz is still very popular with voters overall.

[Tender Branson]

Shocking new developments about the Ibiza scandal:

It is possible that the Austrian Intelligence Service BVT (then led by ÖVP Interior Minister Sobotka) itself has commissioned the video material against Strache and Gudenus.

There are interesting links between the detective Julian Hessenthaler and the BMI, who at the time referred to the Austrian BMI as one of his "most precious clients". The reference on his website was deleted after the scandal broke, but apparently the reference was re-established by experts.

Another clue would be that FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl then raided the BVT after taking office and confiscated a lot of USB-sticks and other material. Maybe he was already aware of compromising material by the BVT against the FPÖ ?

Going further: Maybe it was the ÖVP's plan from the start to blow up the FPÖ at some point, after they passed the most important issues in parliament already and then to weaken the party for their own gain ? Or to get rid of them ? It would also explain why Kurz demanded Kickl to resign immediately, so that Kickl could not investigate further in the BMI/BVT what really happened.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Steckt-Geheimdienst-BVT-hinter-Skandal-Video/381770100

So far, these are only rumours by the tabloid Ö24 and Kickl himself, but if true it would be a MEGA-scandal.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz just said while voting in the EU election that he fully expects to be voted out of office tomorrow by SPÖ-FPÖ-NOW.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz just said while voting in the EU election that he fully expects to be voted out of office tomorrow by SPÖ-FPÖ-NOW.

Who are the most likely candidates to become PM? Will they almost entirely come from the left or could VdB choose someone from the OVP?

As there has been no such case before, he could choose anyone. But considering the ÖVP won the election last time, you could assume that VdB would first ask a ÖVP person if they want to become interim Chancellor ... former EU commissioner Franz Fischler has been mentioned for example. Or former SPÖ President Heinz Fischer.

[Tender Branson]

The party NOW wants to merge with the Greens again ahead of the Sept. federal election and after their disappointing 2% today.

https://orf.at/stories/3124481

The Greens seem to be open about it, but probably only if Peter Pilz is not part of it.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ party committee has just voted unanimously to impeach Kurz tomorrow in parliament.

[Tender Branson]

The impeachment process against Kurz + maybe the whole government will begin at 1pm and last the whole afternoon with debates about it.

The SPÖ will introduce a bill to remove Kurz and his cabinet, while NOW will only introduce a bill to remove Kurz.

The FPÖ will not introduce their own bill and will also not abstain, but will vote on the other motions instead.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ will vote with the SPÖ to oust Kurz AND the whole cabinet.

Kurz impeachment vote set for ca. 4.30pm