Wild NYC: 2032 House elections

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CONTEXT:

A Democrat Way?
Biden won the 2024 election by a small EC margin, the republicans won the Senate and the dems won the House. The next two years were marked by a constant "moderate bipartisianship" on foreing policy and rivalties on domestic policy. The demise of Trump and the lack of a visible future republican consensus in areas like trade and inmigration hurt them in the midterms, as democrats won a surprise trifeca by winning NC, AK and ME at the Senate.  In 2028, the Whitmer/Jeffries ticket won comfortly agaisnt the republican Rubio/Youngkin ticket, which underperformed on both Qanon trumpers and industrial area WWC.
The democrat  2028 ticket won on a mostly liberal but pro-Israel, pro-nuclear and anti crime platform, which included increased funding for DEA. While democrats increased their margins in WWC suburbs, the DSA decided to stop supporting the democrats.
In 2029, the DSA, the Green Party, the PSL and other leftwing organizations united to create the Socialist Party. Ocasio-Cortes, frustated after losing the 2028 Senate primary, became the leader of the new party. In 2030, the democrats lose both congress chambers as the Socialists congressional candidates got decent results, mostly above the 5%, after getting some of the lefties former democrat voters. No socialist candidate could win his/her district, not even the former-democrat incumbents. AOC only got 10% of the vote in the Senate election, while the democrat candidate there won as expected.
The socialists won some seats at the state legislatures of deep blue states, as they focused their resources there. In NY, they got 4 assembly seats and 2 senate seats. The socialists made a pact with the republicans: united, they could draw districts favorable to the interests of both parties. After getting some support of some democrats, a campaing to "create a jewish district in South Brooklyn" started. With AIPAC support, the next congressional map appeared:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/10ca3792-9fea-4af0-b7fb-446dc9946e1f

The new map started with the districts draw by the special coalition...
NY1 - the Queens-Brooklyn district targeted by the Socialist Party
NY2 - The new jewish distrct in South Brooklyn
NY3 - A new version of the Staten Island district, a GOP NY stronghold that is trending democrat in TTL (dems won NY-11 in 2028, altorught they lose it in 2030 by a bit).

Other context:
There was an small recession in 2030, which helped republican take Congress. Things are better in 2032, altrough more 2023 than late Obama/early Trump.
Global warming has rised a bit. Nuclear energy in in vogue, outside of the SP by the way. Whitmer and democrats have supported solar and wind energy plants, and also funded an hydroelectric power station. On cars, she has supported what the AUW tells her to do, so there arenpt much new limit on normal cars, but instead more tariffs on foreing made cars and some support to public transportation.
On foreing policy, a "soft zionist" policy has continued, while the expected critics from the SP (Socialist Party).

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THE BROOKLYN TIMES JUNE 30, 2032

NY-01: socialists dream, republicans hallucinate

Tiffany Caban won the disputed but friendly Socialist Party primaries. Lincoln Restler, a more standart progressive of jewish origin, won the Democrat primaries. Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump's husband, is the surprise republican nominee. Caban did a well attended rally after her primary win, proclaiming her expected platform: universal healthcare, police defunding, federal banning of fracking, increased welfare for the unhoused, desinvestment on Israel, full goverment ownership of prisons and massive inmigration/border reform. Restler criticised some of her stances, specially her support of BDS. On the unhoused, Restler alineated with other democrats: construction of new shelters combined with control of drug use by welfare incentives and forced move from tents to the shelters. While Caban and Restler caused an online debate on homeless people, Kushner proclaimed his platform as a "pro-business republican", trying to appeal to both moderates and the haredi republican base of the district. Also, he called Restler "a closeted socialist afraid to change to a third party". Democrats on social media responded calling him "a MAGA-nepo-carpetbagger".

NY-02: Vernikov for all!

Inna Vernikov won comfortly her GOP House primary. The republicans nominated Mathylde Frontus, who won a disputed primary agaisnt Simcha Eichenstein, a socially conservative orthodox jew democrat. The socialists nominate a local party leader, likely as a placeholder to help the presidential campaing of Ocasio-Cortez. Vernikov is the favorite, but democrats expect to unite the non orthodox jewish vote with them. Some fear that the disputed election will cause racial unrest, altrought both candidates had disavowed the ethnic nature that part of the press had give to the election.

NY-02: Staten Island, as usual?

Malliotakis is again running for re-election. While most expect the Main Street republican to win, Jessica Scarcella-Spanton is running to win back her seat. She and Max Rose leaded a massive rally after the results of the primaries were announced, carrying both the expected democrat planks and the slogan "SCARCELLAagain". Italians flags were visible in the rally. The socialists nominate a local party leader, also likely as a placeholder to help the presidential campaing of Ocasio-Cortez.


Polls

NY 01:
Democrat 46%
Socialist 38%
Republican 16%

NY 02:

Republicans 50%
Democrats 48%
Socialist 2%

NY 03

Republicans 50%
Democrats 48%
Socialist 2%

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JULY 14, 2032

Republican ads

NY-01
The socialist and democrats have already hurt us
Prices increase, and crime continues
Their machines, even if by other name, stay
In the 90s, a republican attorney made us safer
Now, for the 2030s, a businessman offer us an alternative again
Instead of keeping the mahcine feed or risking us with Cuba allies,
why not vote for security and growth?
Kushner is the candidate of the hard working New Yorker
Kushner is the candidate with real experience in federal sector.
Vote for Kushner

NY-02
Vernikov is the leader of NYC republicans
You know her, you know her work for our community
From Borough Park to Sheepshead Bay
From Flatbush to Coney Island
Those machines don´t divide us anymore
We can now choose
We will now vote for South Brooklyn interests
We won´t waste the opportunity

NY-03

They want us to stay their course
But why not instead stay our control of them?
Nicole, our representative, has worked a decade on Congress
She has crossed the aisle but also helped to stop the nonsense.
With your help, she will continue her check on our finances
She will continue helping our law efforcement agents
It´s time for choosing
Vote for Malliotakis.

Socialist ad

NY-01

Tired of the two party plutoclacy?
Tired of expensive healthcare?
Tired of your taxes being wasted killing people abroad?
Join us for a real change
Put private prisons out and public housing in
From Astoria to Murray Hill
Workers and renters, let´s unite
Vote for Caban
Vote for the socialist party

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nice work.

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THE BROOKLYN TIMES JULY 20, 2032

NY-01: Democrats on Queensbridge

The Queensbridge Park was place of a campaing launch rally leaded by Restler along former representative Velazquez. The protests started with massive democrat rallies. The rally started as expected, with the usual democrat rethoric and memories of Restler's experience in govement. In the middle of the rally, jokes about Kushner and the republicans started between the candidate and the audience. Then, a group of socialists appeared chanting "Cabal is the only renter's choice" and carrrying palestinian flags. The socialist group was non-violent but most of the audience retired. Restler defended his stances on housing before retiring.

NY-02: Eichenstein endorses Frontus

The Borough Park democrat endorsed Frontus, defying the expectatives. In his endorse statement he mentioned "common goals on healthcar, agaisnt bigotry and on other issues". While Frontus' record on "jewish issues" is considered, all indicates that she and Eichenstein reached agreements on those issues. She has also recieved endorsements from House Minority Leader Jeffries, representative Goldman and retiring representative Clarke. While Fontus ran as progressive leaning in the primary, her general election campaing has leaned into the moderate, New Democrat type lane. Senator Ritchie Torres is the only one left to endorse her. A reunion between the two may define the course of the election, some say.

NY-03 Ethnic nonsense?

Scarcella has centered her initial campaing efforts in the republican leaning southern part of Staten Island, knocking doors and seeminly recording material for a future ad. Her complete surname (Scarcella-Scranton) has been absent on her camapaing material, which could be interpreted as an intent to resalt her highlight roots in this area.

Meanwhile, Malliotakis has been focusing on her experience and her work with moderate democrats. Despite of that, Gottheimer and other moderate democrats have mantained themsleves out of the loop, and most expect them to end up endorsing her fellow democrat. Her "anti-radical" ad has been liked by her base, but general reception has been mixed.

POLLS

NY 01:
Democrat 45%
Socialist 40%
Republican 15%

NY 02:

Republicans 50%
Democrats 49%
Socialist 1%

NY 03

Republicans 49%
Democrats 49%
Socialist 2%

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THE BROOKLYN TIMES JULY 29, 2032

Detailed Polls

NY-01

	D	R	S
West Queens	42	16	42
North Brooklyn	42	22	36
Northwest Brooklyn	48	10	42

NY-02

	D	R	S
Central Brooklyn	62	34	4
Southwest Brooklyn	46	52	2
Southeast Brooklyn	36	62	2

NY-03

	D	R	S
West Brooklyn	60	36	4
North Staten Island	58	40	2
South Staten Island	34	64	2

Gentrification controversies

During the last years, neightboorhoods in southwest Brooklyn like Bath Beach and Gravesand have become the new center of gentrification. While crime and poverty rates have reduced, rent prices have increased and former working and middle class apartments have been replaced by more upscale residential buildings. While some progressive and socialist city council members have propossed anti gentrification measures, the city has only passed limited pro affordable housing proposals in the last years.

While some local house owners are supportive of the changes, the renters have formed an union to push for fairer rent prices. It has been leaked that Frontus reuntied some days ago with the renter union leaders. In this competitive neightboorhoods, its stimated that only around 60% of renter union members lean democrat (far less than in most areas). Can Frontus use the situation to increase her vote share in this thigh race= Will her proposals for that appeal to renters in other neightborhoods? Keep reading our paper to know.