For all people talk 'bout Western PA's move away, them Philly 'Burbs practically make the difference...which itself wouldn't have been that thinkable even four years ago.
Keep Chester flipped and improve/retain Bucks, and along with the rest of Philly and Pittsburgh, that's a good counter.
Whereas Florida's a hodgepodge.
In such a case, it would seem an insane Broward margin and flipping Jacksonville would have to occur for FL to move left significantly.
The problem is that Bucks has been slightly trending R, which is why Toomey won it, and Trump almost won it despite getting demolished in the rest of the Philly suburban counties.
This is why you have seen PA become a hodgepodge as well with the key counties now being spread all over the state including Centre, Bucks, Northampton and Dauphin, only one of which is now a Philly suburb county.
The other problem is that the Dems have maxed out in Philly, compared to the steady gains they made in registration and voting when Fast Eddy Rendell was Mayor and then Governor. They have also seem to have plateaued in the Philly suburban counties as well, with Montco and Delco bouncing between 55% to 60% D, Bucks about 50-50 and Chester swinging wildly.
It will be interesting to see if Chester settles closer to Bucks or Montco/Delco. If democrats can continue to win big there, things will be hard, though clearly not impossible for republicans. The Lehigh Valley is also booming thanks to a central location turning it into the warehouse city. Trump made gains here, flipping Northampton County, but a lot of these new blue collar jobs are likely to be filled by the growing Hispanic and Arab populations. Pittsburgh is also worth watching. Unlike the rest of Western PA, it hasn't swung to the right, but it is far whiter than most big cities and has long been the epitome of a unionized working class white democrat city. Obviously, it's more white collar now, but the right republican who can appeal to both groups could maybe cut the democrat lead to 10 points in Allegheny County, leaving Philly to outweigh the rest of the state almost singlehandedly.
