2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[YE]

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I wonder if Angle could open this seat up for Democrats. NV-02 isn't an impossible district. At 53 - 44 Romney and 52 - 39 Trump, it seems doable with a controversial candidate that has no incumbency advantage.

It voted for Obama in 2008 (although Obama's 2008 numbers are inflated statewide since NV was disproportionately hit by the housing crash) and northern Nevada is very swingy, so not impossible. But Angle hasn't really gone anywhere in her runs for office since 2010, so I don't think she'll win the primary. I'd rate is as Likely R

[King Lear]

Great news in CA-21, it looks like CJ Cox has announced a Congressional run their, giving Democrats a candidate to replace Emilio Huerta.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/PatriciaMazzei/status/970838556603244544

[GeorgiaModerate]

T. J. Cox is moving his campaign from CA-10 to CA-21: http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-a-new-democrat-has-stepped-up-to-run-1520343146-htmlstory.html

[Landslide Lyndon]

T. J. Cox is moving his campaign from CA-10 to CA-21: http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-a-new-democrat-has-stepped-up-to-run-1520343146-htmlstory.html

At least now the Democrats have a candidate who can afford to buy a meal for his staffers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gun control activist Lucy McBath, who was originally going to challenge state Rep. Sam Teasley (HD-37), will now run for the GA-06 Congressional seat: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/high-profile-gun-control-advocate-enters-georgia-6th-district-race/yR5JoktI4q7Enh41Lpk2ZL/

[KingSweden]

Gun control activist Lucy McBath, who was originally going to challenge state Rep. Sam Teasley (HD-37), will now run for the GA-06 Congressional seat: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/high-profile-gun-control-advocate-enters-georgia-6th-district-race/yR5JoktI4q7Enh41Lpk2ZL/

Think there’s an opening here with all the Delta stuff?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gun control activist Lucy McBath, who was originally going to challenge state Rep. Sam Teasley (HD-37), will now run for the GA-06 Congressional seat: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/high-profile-gun-control-advocate-enters-georgia-6th-district-race/yR5JoktI4q7Enh41Lpk2ZL/

Think there’s an opening here with all the Delta stuff?

It's possible.  Bobby Kaple is familiar to a lot of voters from his time as an Atlanta TV personality.  Based on the historical R lean of the district and the closeness of last year's special, I'll call this Lean R for now.

[136or142]

No Republican filed for the Oregon 3rd Congressional district.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Sabato rating changes.
Ryan isn't Safe Republican anymore.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

From Sabato:

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[Gass3268]

Two other important points:

— No Democratic incumbent is now rated worse than Likely Democratic, a nod to the reality that in a Democratic-leaning environment it will be difficult for Republicans to dislodge many or perhaps even any Democratic incumbents, though there are a handful of Democratic open seats that are more viable Republican targets.

— After these ratings changes, for the first time this cycle we have fewer than 218 seats (the number needed for a majority) at least leaning to the Republicans.

Also here is an interesting blog post explaining why OK-05 should be viewed as more competative then it is

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Two other important points:

— No Democratic incumbent is now rated worse than Likely Democratic, a nod to the reality that in a Democratic-leaning environment it will be difficult for Republicans to dislodge many or perhaps even any Democratic incumbents, though there are a handful of Democratic open seats that are more viable Republican targets.

— After these ratings changes, for the first time this cycle we have fewer than 218 seats (the number needed for a majority) at least leaning to the Republicans.

Also here is an interesting blog post explaining why OK-05 should be viewed as more competative then it is

How many seats were counted as at least leaning towards Democrats at this point in 2010?

[junior chįmp]

Two other important points:

— No Democratic incumbent is now rated worse than Likely Democratic, a nod to the reality that in a Democratic-leaning environment it will be difficult for Republicans to dislodge many or perhaps even any Democratic incumbents, though there are a handful of Democratic open seats that are more viable Republican targets.

— After these ratings changes, for the first time this cycle we have fewer than 218 seats (the number needed for a majority) at least leaning to the Republicans.

Also here is an interesting blog post explaining why OK-05 should be viewed as more competative then it is

How many seats were counted as at least leaning towards Democrats at this point in 2010?

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/itw2010031102/

[Gass3268]

So many of those Likely and Lean Dems lost.

[junior chįmp]

So many of those Likely and Lean Dems lost.

Which is why I predict a very big 🌊

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So many of those Likely and Lean Dems lost.

Yeah.
I would bet that some Safe Dem ones also fell in 2010, given the sheer depth of the 2010 wave.

[ltomlinson31]

So many of those Likely and Lean Dems lost.

Yeah.
I would bet that some Safe Dem ones also fell in 2010, given the sheer depth of the 2010 wave.

Yup. Just taking a quick glance at that list, MN-08 and MS-04 aren't listed and in November, Oberstar and Taylor lost in those seat (MN-08 was eventually listed as Likely D near the end and MS-04 Lean D). Likely not the only ones too.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/971785969950175234



Peek into Democratic spending priorities ahead of the midterms. Definitely looking like they are betting on picking up the House.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/971785969950175234



Peek into Democratic spending priorities ahead of the midterms. Definitely looking like they are betting on picking up the House.

The one interesting thing is that there is comparatively very little going into NYC, especially for the number of competitive seats in the market (3 Dem defense, 6 offense with a 7th if the King retirement offers are true).

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/971785969950175234



Peek into Democratic spending priorities ahead of the midterms. Definitely looking like they are betting on picking up the House.

The one interesting thing is that there is comparatively very little going into NYC, especially for the number of competitive seats in the market (3 Dem defense, 6 offense with a 7th if the King retirement offers are true).

Nothing in Pennsylvania yet either, maybe they are waiting for all the court proceedings to end?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/971785969950175234



Peek into Democratic spending priorities ahead of the midterms. Definitely looking like they are betting on picking up the House.

The one interesting thing is that there is comparatively very little going into NYC, especially for the number of competitive seats in the market (3 Dem defense, 6 offense with a 7th if the King retirement offers are true).

Nothing in Pennsylvania yet either, maybe they are waiting for all the court proceedings to end?

The pic is only some of the list, 6ish mpre markets were cut off. NYC is getting 1.3 mil, and philly 3mil for comparison.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/971785969950175234



Peek into Democratic spending priorities ahead of the midterms. Definitely looking like they are betting on picking up the House.

The one interesting thing is that there is comparatively very little going into NYC, especially for the number of competitive seats in the market (3 Dem defense, 6 offense with a 7th if the King retirement offers are true).

Nothing in Pennsylvania yet either, maybe they are waiting for all the court proceedings to end?

The pic is only some of the list, 6ish mpre markets were cut off. NYC is getting 1.3 mil, and philly 3mil for comparison.

Thanks! It is werid at how low the buy in is for New York City. Yet it does make sense that the top markets would be Los Angeles, Minneapolis, and Philadelphia.

[junior chįmp]

https://www.twitter.com/Carrasquillo/status/971786578497605632

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.twitter.com/Carrasquillo/status/971786578497605632

Good Mark would be a great recruit