I'm going to try to amuse you all.
I believe the wall is even further back than PA18 might suggest.
I believe, wholeheartedly, that KY05 could be won, and with less than a million dollars.
The district is actually majority democrat, Hal Rogers power in congress is waning, and they're waiting to put forward his replacement when the presidential cycle comes around next year. There's an opening for this district, CPVI of R32, to flip.
R+32? No way. Not unless Hogers is the next Bob Ney. Ojeda's going to have his work cut out for him running in WV-03 and it's "only" R+23.
I can guarantee you that the several recent winning statewide Democrats in WV have won WV-03. Nick Rahall was still hanging in there several years ago, and it took a long series of events for the GOP to dislodge him. Ojeda has a very good chance to retake the district.
KY-05, meanwhile, has some of the most GOP areas in the entire country- not only has ancestrally Democratic eastern Kentucky shifted far to the right, but KY-05 also contains huge tracts of land that have been GOP since the Civil War. It would be incredibly difficult to see a Democrat win the current configuration of the district, if not impossible. I am certain many of those registered Democrats are literal DINOs by now.
Even with an appeal to the idea of "retire Hal Rogers", I don't think a winning campaign can be made. Not with the Democratic Party of today, nor with the massive GOP advantages in this district.
