Do you guys think NC will continue to trend Democratic? It has been trending Democratic quickly since the year 2000. Hillary will get less black and youth turnout and support than Obama did, but she will rebound among working class whites. Hard to say which one will overpower the other.
Here is how NC voted relative to the nation sine 2000 :
2000: R + 12.33
2004 : R + 9.94
2008 : R + 7
2012 : R + 6
If the trend continues, and Hillary wins by 5 points nationally, then NC should be winnable.
I can imagine North Carolina going R+4 or R+3 in 2016... but Virginia seems like the most likely tipping-point state in 2016... unless Hillary Clinton can win some Southern states that Democrats haven't won since the 1990s, in which case Pennsylvania becomes the tipping-point state.
