The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Mr. Smith]

I don't see why he doesn't just take on Holcomb or Todd Young?

[Mr. Smith]

Black (Dem.) presidential candidates don't always win the black vote in the primaries, true.  But are there any examples where they got a higher %age among white voters than black voters?  I can't think of any examples.  E.g., Al Sharpton in 2004, when he was getting something like 1% of the vote in the primaries overall, he was still managing to hit double digits among black voters in some states where the black vote was statistically meaningful, according to the exit polls.

So while I don't think it's a given that Booker or Harris will *win* the black vote, if they did better with white Dem. primary voters than black Dem. primary voters, it would be unusual by modern historical standards.

It's worth noting that since 2004, the winner of the black vote (whether that be a plurality or majority) has went on to win the nomination. Even Kerry was doing very well in the early states with black voters (pulling around 40%, with Sharpton getting another 10-20%), and ultimately won closer to 60% of black voters toward the end of the primary contest.

You can actually go back even further and this truth will hold: in 2000, it was a lopsided result in general of course; in 1992 (and by default 1996), both black and Southern white voters were united behind Clinton from the get-go (albeit at a time when the black vote was less influential). Jesse Jackson was probably the last Democratic candidate who won the most black voters in the primary but who didn't clinch the nomination - and even he made an unexpectedly strong showing as a result of it.

Yeah, and Tom Harkin's the lone candidate to win Iowa and not get nominated in that same space of time, and Iowa is mostly white. In fact literally only Harkin has won Iowa and not been nominee [since the reforms and Carter first demonstrating the importance of the state], and he had a home-state bounce!

Which one is gonna override here? Especially if the black vote gets split?

[Mr. Smith]

https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-congress-feinstein-20190103-story.html


Feinstein has ice in her veins

Something tells me she and Harris don't have the best working relationship...

Harris works for the people, or would...if Trump's win hadn't created an opening.

Feinstein works for the interests, always has.

[Mr. Smith]

Oakland, despite being a working class city, is home to the Golden State Warriors, a team despised by most of the country. It wouldn't work

They really aren't. At least no more than the normal backlash given to winning teams. Also a bit besides the point.

Either way, bad optics. Should just run with SF and make the case for big cities, take back the "small town" bs.

[Mr. Smith]

I think the difference between a lot of the Sanders critics and his supporters who criticize literally everyone else is that the former would do the responsible thing and vote for him in the general if it came to that whereas the latter group has proven to be irresponsible, self-righteous, and destructive when not given everything it wants.

Given what happened in Nebraska CD2 [RIP Kara Eastman], it would seem the reverse is more true.

And at least the reluctant supporters are honest about their frustratons, none of this "whose the adult in the room" BS, which the critics love using.

[Mr. Smith]

Hickenlooper reiterates that he plans to decide on whether to run by March:

https://denver.cbslocal.com/2019/01/23/john-hickenlooper-2020-president-campaign/

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Waaaaaay too late. Everyone who’s anyone will be in by Valentine’s Day.

The current Pres was the Last to decide in 2016.

[Mr. Smith]

Bloomberg, Biden and TMac now reconsidering and less likely to run due to Dem leftward shift.

The Democratic Party is racing at breakneck pace toward George McGovern territory.

This isn't a bad thing.

And the GOP pole-vaulting past Barry Goldwater and shacking it with Jesse Helms to great reward is evidence of that. It's not like the old trajectory towards Joe Lieberman or '80's Mondale did anything useful anyway.

[Mr. Smith]

Why are so many Democrats running? Such a fractured field may only end up helping Trump.

I mean the 2016 Republican primary was quite fractured as well. It didn’t seem to hurt Trump in the slightest.

President Ford's second term agrees with this too!

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