This entire system of the 10% threshold but does not apply to independents is a bit weird. I think in 2007 and 2011 the Kurdish BDP actually had their candidates run as independents and then rejoin BDP after taking their seats. What is also interesting about the 10% is that AKP actually gained vote share in 2007 from 2002 and 2011 from 2007 but lost seats in both 2007 and 2011 due to the massive distortion of the 2002 election handing AKP massive number of seats with a fairly small 34% of the vote.
This time around I guess AKP will be in the lower 40s so unless HDP does not cross the 10% threshold which I doubt after all these bombings, we will have a deadlock. I am not sure what the official position of MHP and HDP going into a post-election alliance but I suspect it will be very awkward. But CHP, MHP and HDP all hate AKP so I am not sure how government formation will take place. I guess HDP will break ranks and ally with AKP ? Given the political affects it does not seem to me that the AKP is responsible for the blasts since all that will do is to make sure the Kurdish vote consolidates around HDP and deny AKP its majority.
An HDP alliance with the AKP would have been plausible five or six years ago, or if Abdullah Gul had succeeded Erodgan, but not only is the AKP sufficiently authoritarian to have united the opposition, but Syria has made a hash of its relations with the Kurds. The Turks have been really ambiguous in their attitude towards ISIS in its battles with the Kurds in Iraq and Syria, and the author of that policy is now the AKP Prime Minister. Given that the CHP increasingly is the party of educated liberal Turks, and the HDP wants to be a socially liberal policy, both fear the AKP's foreign policy an alliance wouldn't be that hard. That just requires the MHP to come onboard, and they did back the CHP in the Presidential race.
Or the AKP could just not rig it and conveniently get enough votes, sort of like how Erdogan just avoided a runoff in the Presidential race
