Confederate States

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What if the Confederates won the war?  What would election maps look like?

Depends.  Did they win with enough strength to claim the border states?  Did they only keep their independence?

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If Jackson rests what does the Union army do durign that time?  Withdraw to better ground and entrench, and more support comes up.

Gettysburg was a chance to defeat a Union army, but Lee never came close.  A lot of people say if he had put  2 more divisions into Pickett's Charge it would have worked.  Well, it would have broken the center, but the Union flanks would have collapsed on the breakthrough before it could be solidified since there would be no one locking them into place, which the 2 other divisions were doing in real life.

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I agree that a decisve victory in which the main Union army is destroyed would have ended the war in the CSA favour. A win in Maryland or Penn in 1862 would have seen the French and British force a peace settlement.
A victory at Gettysburg was possable but not on the 3rd day with Picketts charge, that was always going to fail.
The best hope for Lee to win was on the 2nd day, by taking Little Round Top and outflanking the whole Union line, and dont forget that it was race for the Union to get troops on to that hill, and the race was won only by 10 minutes. If Warren had not spotted the weakness just say 5 minutes the battle could have well be a lot different.

Gettysburg was winnable on day 1, but that was a long shot.  The belief that the Confederates could have easily taken the heights is unfounded.

Little Round Top was a close run, but would not have been a nail in the coffin.  The Union lines would have to put a barb on the fishook, but both sides would have been overstretched.  The forces on Little Round Top would have been vulnerable to being cut off from supply by a clever counter attack on their supply lines.  Could have gone either way.

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I agree Hancock did a lot to win the battle, also here is another what-if , What-if John Reynolds was not killed on the 1st day- would he if he been alive on the 3rd day forced Meade into a counter-attack that could well have destroyed Lee. Hancock pushed for it- but Meade said no- but with Reynolds pushing for it as well he might have changed his mind.
I do think the CSA could have won the war of that there is no dobut, it is just where and when?

2nd Bull Run/Manassas was the last real chance.  Once the Emancipation Procolation was in place Britain would be hard pressed to support the slave holding south.

A French/British declaration of war would have been a disaster, for the South.  Draft riots would have ended in about 15 minutes.   The papers would hve screamed the secession and war was a foreign plot to divide the nation.

They would have likely opened up trade to the Confederacy lifting the blockade and would have tried a raid on either DC or NY.  This would have taught them a very harsh lesson: Never send a blue water navy up against a brown water navy in brown water.  The Royal Navy would be deprived of its biggest advantages and fight a force equal in size in the oppositions home waters.  The RN was good, but not that good.

After that it comes down to what the RN does, supply the Suoth or Canada.  If they supply the South, the Union can maintain a defensiv position while picking apart Canada.  If they supply Canada the South is overwhelemd byt he much larger Union army and the US and UK sign a white peace after a while.

Even if the RN contents itself with lifting the blockade the Union will be able to raise troops and keep them supplied far easier than the South.



France, at this point, was a non factor.  They could barely hold Mexico, let alone intervene north of the border.

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I agree Hancock did a lot to win the battle, also here is another what-if , What-if John Reynolds was not killed on the 1st day- would he if he been alive on the 3rd day forced Meade into a counter-attack that could well have destroyed Lee. Hancock pushed for it- but Meade said no- but with Reynolds pushing for it as well he might have changed his mind.
I do think the CSA could have won the war of that there is no dobut, it is just where and when?

2nd Bull Run/Manassas was the last real chance.  

Noooo.  War Weariness equals Linocoln getting voted out.  This notion that the North was massively united behind the war is just a fairl-tale taught to make the north look all good and the south look all bad.  There were draft riots and papers that were harshly critical of Lincoln, anti-war demonstrations and other things in the north through out the war.

I know all about that, and it was a piss-poor strategy.   The North was not united, but the chance of it flying apart was slim to none.  

Just look at teh result of the 1864 election: Lincoln won the popular vote by a hair over 10%.  There were many people against the war, but not nearly enough to for ce Lincoln's hand.  Once the Confederacy failed to threaten Washington D.C. after 2nd BUll Run and Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclomation the war became more popular in many areas of society.

The war weariness "strategy" was really a desperate last prayer after the failure of Gettysburg and Vicksburg.  They hoped that if they could hold out maybe the North would abandon the war effort.  By then it was far too late.

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1- Not a war loser, but it killed their chances for a while.
2- Very likely.  Definitely the best chance.
3- Possible, but not a given.  Probably not a war winning moment though.
4- Likely result is the Union pulls back and seeks battle elsewhere.
5- Yes, the Confederate government was a nightmare.  I'm half convinced NC was intentionally sabotaging the war effort.
6- A huge problem.  They always thought  the west was a diversion and never realized the importance of the Mississippi river.
7- All this really did is end the war a few years early, but this was the final nail in the coffin.  It removed the last fighting chance they had to try and come back.

Agree completely withthe rest of your points.

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7) The death blow for the confederate army will come as a shock to some here. The Battle of Five Forks. Yes Yes I know it happened in April '65 but the Confederate lines were actually holding up well and a organized retreat was in the works. The collapse of this critical juncture doomed the Confederacy. (Thanks to a shad bake)

Ehhh, I would say that the Confederates last chance to win the war was the Battle of North Anna.  If they had carried out Lee's plans and sucessfully split the Federals into two groups and fought them while they were deployed piecemeal, they could have won an astunding victory against Grant just before the election.

North Anna would have turned the Union back for a while.  Lee would have had to avoid conflict with the resurgent Union over the coming months as the next wave of enlistments arrived.

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7) The death blow for the confederate army will come as a shock to some here. The Battle of Five Forks. Yes Yes I know it happened in April '65 but the Confederate lines were actually holding up well and a organized retreat was in the works. The collapse of this critical juncture doomed the Confederacy. (Thanks to a shad bake)

Ehhh, I would say that the Confederates last chance to win the war was the Battle of North Anna.  If they had carried out Lee's plans and sucessfully split the Federals into two groups and fought them while they were deployed piecemeal, they could have won an astunding victory against Grant just before the election.

North Anna would have turned the Union back for a while.  Lee would have had to avoid conflict with the resurgent Union over the coming months as the next wave of enlistments arrived.

Grant's forces were already wearing thin.  At Cold Harbor (just after North Anna) they already had to pluck the "Band-box" regiments from D.C.

But the next wave of draftees were due soon, as in a matter of weeks.  That is why Lee felt the need to strike, the Union was going to get stronger while Lee was looking at no more reinforcements, the Confederacy was nearly bled white.

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4- Likely result is the Union pulls back and seeks battle elsewhere.

Yep! Rock Creek running along the MD/PA border.

Sorry to contradict you again, but I thought that Meade's Orders were to pull back to Pipe Creek.

I believe it was actually both.

(shrug) probably.   Funny thing, I bet if newbies stumbled into here, they would think that we must be 3 Ph.D's talking.  

You're not?


Seriously, we are far too brief for Ph.Ds.

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7) The death blow for the confederate army will come as a shock to some here. The Battle of Five Forks. Yes Yes I know it happened in April '65 but the Confederate lines were actually holding up well and a organized retreat was in the works. The collapse of this critical juncture doomed the Confederacy. (Thanks to a shad bake)

Ehhh, I would say that the Confederates last chance to win the war was the Battle of North Anna.  If they had carried out Lee's plans and sucessfully split the Federals into two groups and fought them while they were deployed piecemeal, they could have won an astunding victory against Grant just before the election.

North Anna would have turned the Union back for a while.  Lee would have had to avoid conflict with the resurgent Union over the coming months as the next wave of enlistments arrived.

Grant's forces were already wearing thin.  At Cold Harbor (just after North Anna) they already had to pluck the "Band-box" regiments from D.C.

But the next wave of draftees were due soon, as in a matter of weeks.  That is why Lee felt the need to strike, the Union was going to get stronger while Lee was looking at no more reinforcements, the Confederacy was nearly bled white.

Oh, of course.  But in real life, when they came, Grant was very lucky, because they were settling down and they wouldn't have to march or perform any complex manuvers.  In the open field, Lee could have taken advantage of these gree units.

Grant would have had to pull back to them, but Lee would not have risked crossing into the North again.  

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7) The death blow for the confederate army will come as a shock to some here. The Battle of Five Forks. Yes Yes I know it happened in April '65 but the Confederate lines were actually holding up well and a organized retreat was in the works. The collapse of this critical juncture doomed the Confederacy. (Thanks to a shad bake)

Ehhh, I would say that the Confederates last chance to win the war was the Battle of North Anna.  If they had carried out Lee's plans and sucessfully split the Federals into two groups and fought them while they were deployed piecemeal, they could have won an astunding victory against Grant just before the election.

North Anna would have turned the Union back for a while.  Lee would have had to avoid conflict with the resurgent Union over the coming months as the next wave of enlistments arrived.

Grant's forces were already wearing thin.  At Cold Harbor (just after North Anna) they already had to pluck the "Band-box" regiments from D.C.

But the next wave of draftees were due soon, as in a matter of weeks.  That is why Lee felt the need to strike, the Union was going to get stronger while Lee was looking at no more reinforcements, the Confederacy was nearly bled white.

Oh, of course.  But in real life, when they came, Grant was very lucky, because they were settling down and they wouldn't have to march or perform any complex manuvers.  In the open field, Lee could have taken advantage of these gree units.

Grant would have had to pull back to them, but Lee would not have risked crossing into the North again.  

True, but we must also ponder what the casulty figures would have been for the Federals if Lee had been sucessful at North Anna.  We are talking about the possible destruction of an entire Corps (V).  The would have devistated the Federal command as that was nearly a quarter of the AoP.  If that had happened, Grant would almost certainly have had to retreat north to protect his supply train, which was already percariously possitioned.  If you recall, Grant had moved it into a vulnerable possition to draw Lee out of Cold Harbor.  Lee didn't take the bait, but Grant would have been in a very uncomfortable possition had Lee won.

This is the civil war, whole Coprps do not go away that quickly.  He could have devastated the Corp, but 60-70% would have gotten away.  They did have an avenue of retreat, but would have been cut of ffromt the main line.  Would still have been a heavy blow.

Casualties would have likely been 20-30% for the Federals, massive but not enough to disintegrate the force.

It is also possible the men would have failed Lee.  The southerners were not well drilled and the complex plan might have fallen apart, it happened more than once to the Cnfederates.

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The reason I say Rock creek is because I know someone that lives on the banks and a sign is up by their house that says it's was a fallback point. And if you want to see Civil War History look at my wifes family tree!! Good grief she has almost 70 CSA ancestors. Trederick what part of NC are you from? My wifes family is from the Wilson area. Waddells and Jones (which one? lol). They are tobacco farmers, though not so much anymore. One of her ancestors owned almost 800 slaves in the Orangeburg district of SC.

Originally from Long Island, currently living in Raleigh.

All of my family came over post civil war.