And since when is GOP open seat performance in New Jersey tied to Presidential results? Bob Franks outran Bush statewide in 2000, Ferguson outran Bush in NJ-07 in 2000, Zimmer outran Bush in NJ-12 in 2000, and Doug Forrester and Scott Garrett outran Bush's 2000 numbers in 2002.
1. The 7th district race in 2000 was much closer than it had any right to be because of Gore's coattails, just as the 1998 race was unreasonably competitive due to revulsion at Monicagate. Ferguson outran Bush, but Bush so far underperformed in that district that he dragged Ferguson down. You have to look at the spread, not just the results.
1a. 2000 was a great year for House Republicans everywhere but California and southern Arkansas. You swept the open seats, by and large. The generic ballot for 2008 still looks the way it did in 2006, when Republicans didn't do as well as in 2000.
2. Clinton's coattails in 1996 helped Bill Pascrell take out Bill Martini. Having the Republican candidate identified with the regionalist conservatives who dominate the party is the kiss of death in N.J.
3. If Bush were running in 2002, he'd have far outrun his numbers in 2000, as you surely know.
Maybe Diane Allen will win. We'll have to see how this plays out. I can understand the appeal of the kind of moderate Republicanism she represents and why you'd want that to return to Washington. However, given the potential toxic climate and financial problems northern Republicans will face in 2008, and the strong disconnect between state and federal partisanship (anyone want to promote a MS legislative Democrat for senator?), there is just no way for someone to shut down this discussion by declaring Allen will win and anyone who disagrees just doesn't get it.
Maybe she'll win. Maybe Adler will win. But this isn't 2002, and it isn't 2003.