Conservative leadership election

[beesley]

Useful reference point ahead of MP balloting:

http://order-order.com/backers

To be on the ballot a leadership candidate needs a proposer and seconder.

Of course, although it looks like Raab vs Johnson here, support from Hunt, Javid, Hancock and Gove could all coalesce behind which of them is most successful.

[beesley]

It rules that Philip Hammond isn't even mentioned as a possible candidate when the likes of Churchill's nonce grand-spawn is for whatever reason.

That's because he ruled it out.

[beesley]

A Raab and Johnson final two would be highly unlikely. More likely is Hunt vs. the successful one of them, for obvious reasons.

[beesley]

Liz Truss has withdrawn her candidacy. Gove implies that BoJo doesn't have the "wherewithal" to deliver Brexit.

My immediate reaction:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EDsIT1lheo

Raab in. So is Gove.

Lol@Gove. Raab is a pretty strong candidate although he's arguably a bit inexperienced. If there's a final two involving both of him, Gove or Hunt, then Surrey's monopoly on the executive continues. It's got a lot of cabinet members and all sides of the Conservative Party are represented amongst the 11 MPs. Unlike Canada, where it is a huge obsession for everyone except Jason Kenney (and an obsession for good reason), geographic representation means little when forming government here.

[beesley]

Liz Truss has withdrawn her candidacy. Gove implies that BoJo doesn't have the "wherewithal" to deliver Brexit.

My immediate reaction:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EDsIT1lheo

Raab in. So is Gove.

Lol@Gove

I think he has a genuine chance, and is in the good books of a certain K R Murdoch.

I don't dispute that, he's doing very well at the moment. I was more laughing at the way he announced his campaign.

[beesley]

So far - if a candidate has formally announced, their seat is coloured in. I compiled the data from Guido Fawkes and Conservative Home - for David Evennett (Bex & Cray) they contradicted eachother, so I put Sajid Javid as it seemed more likely than Mark Harper.

Edit: Andrew Rosindell (Romford) is backing Boris Johnson.

[beesley]

Update for today following the announcements of Sajid Javid, Kit Malthouse and James Cleverly - all candidates except Cleverly have other two supporting MPs to get on to the ballot - his only apparent supporter is Colin Clark (MP for Gordon.) Mark Harper and Steve Baker have 4 and 1 supporters respectively, but it is not clear whether they are running. Collated from multiple sources.

Although Michael Gove is leading, with only a third of MPs having made any indication of their chosen candidate, it's too early to call (especially with the successive balloting.)

Edit: James Morris (Halesowen and Rowley Regis) backs Jeremy Hunt. Was bound to miss one somewhere.

[beesley]

Does an MP need a certain number of backers to be an official candidate? Also, can an MP endorse more than one person? Wiki list David Davies as having endorsed two people.

I seem to remember reading that an MP needs to be backed by at least two others, but I can't remember where I read it.

Is it significant at all that Raab only has the support (so far) of three MPs from north of Birmingham (and none from north of York), while BoJo, Hunt, and Gove all seem to have much more support in Scotland and the North?

I hadn't noticed, I'm glad I made that map now. Raab's support is made up of mostly Brexiteers, but they tend to be the more measured and quieter ones that I like (although Andrea Jenkyns and Anne Marie Morris support him, but they're exceptions) - so people like David Davis, Dr Andrew Murrison, Eddie Hughes etc. To be honest, there aren't many Conservative MPs north of York anyway, and the ones from that area tend to be quite moderate. James Wharton who was one of the strong Brexiteers lost his seat in Stockton South (he was a pretty poor MP), and Simon Clarke, Ross Thomson, and Anne-Marie Trevelyan have all endorsed Boris, but I think that's more correlation than causation. Those three are pretty vocal; Clarke for example was one of the first people to write a letter calling for May's resignation. I'll have an update later - two Scottish MPs have endorsed Matt Hancock. Only two Scottish MPs can really be seen on the right of the party - Ross Thomson and Colin Clark, and they've backed Boris and Cleverly respectively.

And to be on the ballot, you need someone to nominate you and second that nomination - funnily enough last time Dominic Raab seconded Michael Gove's nomination, if I remember correctly.

Does an MP need a certain number of backers to be an official candidate? Also, can an MP endorse more than one person? Wiki list David Davies as having endorsed two people.

Are you sure that's a mistake? There is a David Davis (the famous one, supporting Raab) and David Davies (supporting Javid). To differentiate them in the Commons, David Davies is addressed as David TC Davies. Obviously an MP can endorse more than one candidate, but they only get one vote.

[beesley]

As promised, here's an update.

Michael Gove's support seems the most interesting. He's managed to unite Brexiteers, including Major-era Edward Leigh and George Eustice, who resigned as Environment Minister over Brexit, but with a large group of moderates, including Rachel Maclean, Trudy Harrison, Kevin Hollinrake, and David Duguid, the latter of which represents one of two Brexit supporting seats in Scotland, and some real Remain-wing Tories, including former organiser at Britain Stronger in Europe Luke Graham, and 'Brexit mutineers' Bob Neill and Tom Tugendhat.

Boris Johnson, Sajid Javid and Matt Hancock have had an uptick in supporters, whereas Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab and Esther McVey are losing ground as the number of declared MPs increases. We're nearly at 50%, and that's excluding people who probably won't endorse this early on, such as Theresa May, David Lidington and Chris Davies.

[beesley]

Boris is a shoe-in.

Oh fun...

A reminder of the system: MPs have a series of votes, in each of which the bottom candidate is eliminated.  

Essentially Ranked Ballot Voting in several rounds, right?

The very voting system the Cons demonized for the 2011 referendum, when it might have threatened their grip on the country.
As long as it lets them hang on to power, they can be pretty smart people.

Not quite identical. If you have a list of preferences on a single ballot paper, then you are locked into that order of preferences through the whole process. If you vote in successive ballots you can choose to modify who you vote for next, at each round.

Remember that the Conservative MPs are regarded as a dishonest electorate. Many of them are trying to construct a narrative for themselves to ingratiate themselves with the eventual winner.

"I know I promised to vote for five rival candidates and not for you Prime Minister, but I was just lying to confuse your enemies and voted for you every time. I would be a marvellous Under Secretary of State for Paperclip Procurement don't you think?"

In the 1990 leadership election, there were at least 20 MPs who pledged to both Douglas Hurd and John Major privately in the hope of being promoted or gaining favour. They had not suspected that Hurd and Major were sharing their private support lists.

[beesley]

Trump has backed BoJo, apparently.

Let joy be unconfined.

He also said Jeremy Hunt was a 'good guy,' that he's really interested in the leadership race and that other people asked him for support (who?)

[beesley]

Another update. It all kicks off on Friday (if it hasn't already.) About 50% of the party have declared, I suspect there will be a large number, 20% or so, who don't in order to curry favour.

[beesley]

Wikipedia says David Gauke (South West Hertfordshire, current Lord Chancellor/Justice Secretary) is backing Stewart.

Added. Not surprising given his stance, but his constituency party are quite unhappy with him. I seem to live near all the dissatisfied local parties, given Philip Lee and Dominic Grieve are near me too.

Wasn't planning on updating, but given the surge in declarations (substantially, but not all for Boris)

[beesley]

Lots of MPs declared for Boris today, including International Trade Minister Graham Stuart, senior Whip Andrew Stephenson and Theresa May loyalist Simon Hart. Clearly a diverse bunch. Culture Secretary Jeremy Wright declared for Javid, Justice Secretary David Gauke for Stewart, and second referendum supporter Huw Merriman for Hunt.

[beesley]

 

New update.

Is it significant at all that Raab only has the support (so far) of three MPs from north of Birmingham (and none from north of York), while BoJo, Hunt, and Gove all seem to have much more support in Scotland and the North?

Update on that - he still doesn't have any, in fact he hasn't gained many supporters at all recently, unlike Boris and Gove.

[beesley]

Nominations close tomorrow.

[beesley]

What happens if the anti-Johnson Tory MPs decide to strategise to put two other candidates up?

If everyone is honest about their support, mathematically it looks unlikely - it looks like Raab won't make the final round of MPs so Boris has a lock on their pool. Plus it requires great coordination from a secret set of unconnected MPs... don't see that.

[beesley]

At the close of nominations, your delay update on who is believed to be supporting who.

[beesley]

If everyone is honest about their support...

Ah yes, the f, amously honest Conservative parliamentary party.

I  don't doubt that, but we're working with what we have to go on.

[beesley]

At the close of nominations, your delay update on who is believed to be supporting who.

Got sum totals?

I can total up those on the map, but it'll only be accurate for the larger candidates. Will do after today's posting.

[beesley]

Good afternoon. Who's the early front-runner ?

Here's a map which shows the state of play for the MPs round (expect some inaccuracies due to dishonesty.)

[beesley]

Do we know when the first ballot will be held on Thursday? Will we know the results as soon as they're counted or would we have to wait?

Results declared at 1pm GMT

[beesley]

Are any of the candidates supporting May's deal?

No, or at least not explicitly. The contenders proposing a new/different deal are, in effect, offering to keep most of May's deal except for some part of it they don't like, usually the backstop. Thing is, because the EU won't renegotiate, any candidate who isn't advocating for 'no-deal' is tacitly arguing for May's deal (or a general election and/or referendum, but they've all denounced that path as suicide for the party)

Thanks
What about Gove's idea of a long term delay? How feasible is this?

Ultimately depends on the will of the EU27. Macron most obviously wants no delay but has caved in everytime.

There have been suggestions the EU would recognise the change in scene of a new PM. But it's a good tactic to say 'no renegotiation' when they got most of what they want.

[beesley]

So which candidates are against No Deal and which are for it?

Explicitly favour of a no deal or 'managed exit.'

Esther McVey
Andrea Leadsom

Hopeful for a deal but prepared for a no deal in order to leave on 31st Oct

Boris Johnson
Dominic Raab
Sajid Javid

Hopeful for a deal and would extend A50 in order to see it happen, but not ruling out no deal

Michael Gove
Jeremy Hunt

Have their own plan to avoid no deal but not opposed to no deal if said plan fails

Mark Harper
Matt Hancock

Explicitly opposed to no deal - if nothing can be achieved they will only leave on Theresa May's deal

Rory Stewart

[beesley]

Here's where things stand the day before nominations.