Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[Mike88]

Public prosecutor’s office in Brasilia is probing candidate Bolsonaro’s main economic adviser Paulo Guedes for alleged association with managers linked to politicians in order to fraud pension funds of state-controlled companies.  The planned delegation of economic policy by a Bolsonaro administration to Guedes is a key part of the market rally.  Now that is under threat.

This may hurt Bolsonaro if more details are revealed and if stories like these hit people close to Bolsonaro. Even Bolsonaro himself, who knows. It may turn off many voters that are concerned with corruption, but the question is if this is enough for many voters that loathe the PT so deeply. I'm not sure that's the case, but we'll see.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bolsonaro is too extreme for Marine Le Pen, but not for the Wall Street Journal.

[njwes]

Bolsonaro is too extreme for Marine Le Pen, but not for the Wall Street Journal.

Has LePen expressed a strong opinion on him??

[ON Progressive]

New XP/Ipespe poll:

Bolsonaro 51%
Hadddad 36%

Valid votes

Bolsonaro 59%
Haddad 41%

Looks like a huge majority of Brazil will vote for a fascist. I won’t even feel any sympathy when Brazil becomes a far right military dictatorship again, because voters get what they deserve.

[EPG]

Most of his own voters would be happy with that, given what we know about Brazil public opinion. I can only imagine the rest are more concerned about PT corruption or Venezuela 2 than a long-lasting military dictatorship. I would guess that is a risky bet.

[Strudelcutie4427]

My girlfriend is Brazilian and was never-Jair in the first round. But PT has made life rather difficult for middle class Brazilians to make a good living, start a business, etc. Plus she told me that Venezuela is pushing a lot of Brazilians to support Jair. His primary showing in  high population São Paulo, Goias, Minas Gerais, and Rio were too high not to give him the clear edge

[mvd10]

Bolsonaro is too extreme for Marine Le Pen, but not for the Wall Street Journal.

Le Pen doesn't like him? This is it, I'm all in for Bolsonaro lmao.

[Republican Left]

What happened to Marina Silva, while she didn't make the run-off in the last election, she did finish third, didn't she have any residual political capital that could have served as a platform to win this time around?

Additionally, how could Ciro and his party couldn't topple the PT, aren't Brazilians frustrated with the corruption of the PT, wouldn't ardent and idealistic social democrats opt for a party with less baggage?

[jaichind]

I superficially mapped all the parties by Left Center and Right and looked at the 2014 balance of both houses after the 2014 elections vs after the 2018 elections

House      2014   2018
Left          169     162
Center      103       69
Right        241     282

Senate    2014    2018
Left           31       25
Center       21       18
Right         29       38

I also computed vote share for House
House      2014      2018
Left         35.0%   31.1%
Center     17.9%   13.3%
Right       47.1%   55.6%

[jaichind]

Just to make it clear he is not energetically for Haddad,  Gomes will be going on holiday to Europe in the middle of the second-round campaign so there is no chance he will be campaigning for Haddad.

[jaichind]

Interesting to see how Alckmin loses miserably but his coalition still gets several times more seats than that of any other candidate.

Also REDE and PV did not do that badly in the Congressional vote even as Marina Silva completely crashed and burned.

Actually, they did badly (only 5 seats) compared to MDB+PHS (40 seats) or Podemos+PSC+PRP+PTC (25 seats) whose candidates got roughly as many votes as Marina.

Yes.  I guess where I was going is with 1% of the vote in the Prez race winning 5+ seats for her bloc is pretty good.

One more comment on this. It seems that REDE got 4.2% of the vote in the Senate races.  Just to show that  Silva could have gotten some more votes than she did.  It seems her base was lost to tactically vote for  Haddad or Gomes  in the race to see who makes it into the second round. 

[DavidB.]

An Ideia/Big Data poll has Bolsonaro at 54%, Haddad at 46% of valid votes (and 48% vs. 41% including invalid votes). The other polls were 58/42 and 59/41.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The evolution of PT presidential support:



Of course you can immediately see that there's always an essential instability to electoral patterns in Brazil. However there is a story here and it links into the PTs attempts in government to hack away at the caste divisions (I don't think 'race' is quite right) in Brazilian society, which has led to a realignment of politics around those divisions.

[DC Al Fine]

The evolution of PT presidential support:



Of course you can immediately see that there's always an essential instability to electoral patterns in Brazil. However there is a story here and it links into the PTs attempts in government to hack away at the caste divisions (I don't think 'race' is quite right) in Brazilian society, which has led to a realignment of politics around those divisions.

What's the deal with the great PT result in that far south province in 1998?

[Strudelcutie4427]

The evolution of PT presidential support:



Of course you can immediately see that there's always an essential instability to electoral patterns in Brazil. However there is a story here and it links into the PTs attempts in government to hack away at the caste divisions (I don't think 'race' is quite right) in Brazilian society, which has led to a realignment of politics around those divisions.

What's the deal with the great PT result in that far south province in 1998?

I’m not sure. I think RGdS is the richest or one of the richest in brazil

[Hydera]

The evolution of PT presidential support:



Of course you can immediately see that there's always an essential instability to electoral patterns in Brazil. However there is a story here and it links into the PTs attempts in government to hack away at the caste divisions (I don't think 'race' is quite right) in Brazilian society, which has led to a realignment of politics around those divisions.

What's the deal with the great PT result in that far south province in 1998?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonel_Brizola

Guy was a popular politician in Rio Grande do Sul. And leant his support to Lula in the second round of the 1989 election to which Lula got 68% there in 1989.

PT usually did better there compared to other South Brazil states since 2002. and Dilma almost won it in 2010 and 2014 because it was her adopted home state after she moved there in the 1980s.

Its likely this time though that Bolsonaro will win it by a much higher margin but still it likely will be PT's best performance in the South again.

[Lord Halifax]

What caused the realignment between 2002 and 2006? It went from PT dominating all along the coast to losing the southern part of that belt and having the NE/N as its stronghold (there is an overlap in the NE, but the difference is striking).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What caused the realignment between 2002 and 2006? It went from PT dominating all along the coast to losing the southern part of that belt and having the NE/N as its stronghold (there is an overlap in the NE, but the difference is striking).

Realignment of politics around what's best thought of as caste ('race' isn't right for various reasons even if that was the point of origin) as a result of the PT's attempts to eliminate structural discrimination in Brazilian society.

[Hydera]

What caused the realignment between 2002 and 2006? It went from PT dominating all along the coast to losing the southern part of that belt and having the NE/N as its stronghold (there is an overlap in the NE, but the difference is striking).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensal%C3%A3o_scandal

Alckmin was from the South and from 2006 on the PSDB campaigned on swinging the middle classes which worked.

At the same time the North which ironically voted for conservative candidates prior to 2002 because of Clientism. Switched en masse to the PT as well as finally voting rather than voting blank since poverty in that region made people distrustful of politics until Lula implemented his social programs like Bolsa Familia.

[Skye]

In Venezuela, a lot of opposition voters are happy with the prospect of Bolsonaro winning. It's mainly based on the fact that a Haddad victory would be a big blow to us considering Maduro would gain a new ally, and that's just exactly not what we need right now. And while I definitely don't want a guy like Haddad wining, Bolsonaro certainly isn't a candidate I like. His comments and positions are appalling, and I hope his incendiary comments don't translate to policies.

[Lord Halifax]

In Venezuela, a lot of opposition voters are happy with the prospect of Bolsonaro winning. It's mainly based on the fact that a Haddad victory would be a big blow to us considering Maduro would gain a new ally, and that's just exactly not what we need right now. And while I definitely don't want a guy like Haddad wining, Bolsonaro certainly isn't a candidate I like. His comments and positions are appalling, and I hope his incendiary comments don't translate to policies.

Do you think there is a chance Bolsonaro would invade Venezuela and finish off the Maduro regime?

[DavidB.]

Rejection

Haddad 47%
Bolsonaro 35%

Wow.

[Skye]

In Venezuela, a lot of opposition voters are happy with the prospect of Bolsonaro winning. It's mainly based on the fact that a Haddad victory would be a big blow to us considering Maduro would gain a new ally, and that's just exactly not what we need right now. And while I definitely don't want a guy like Haddad wining, Bolsonaro certainly isn't a candidate I like. His comments and positions are appalling, and I hope his incendiary comments don't translate to policies.

Do you think there is a chance Bolsonaro would invade Venezuela and finish off the Maduro regime?

What? I dunno. I don't know enough about the guy to say if he's going to invade us. People certainly fantasize about a military intervention around here, but that's mainly for a US intervention.

[Famous Mortimer]

New Ibope poll:

Jair Bolsonaro 52%
Fernando Haddad 37%
Blank/null 9%
Don't know 2%

Valid votes:

Bolsonaro 59%
Haddad 41%

Rejection

Haddad 47%
Bolsonaro 35%

What does this mean? Is this the preference of people who refuse to vote when pushed?

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact:

From what I understand, Bolsonaro could get more than 70 million votes in the runoff, if he gets 60% in a 80% turnout election.

That would beat Obama's 69.5 million in the 2008 election.

Maybe I'm wrong, but wouldn't this also be the most votes for any democratically elected candidate on the planet ?

Edit: no, Indonesia candidates got more votes.