UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[ViaActiva]

I agree with both of you in a sense that Corbyn has attracted voters who would otherwise not vote or vote Green, but I think he also worries a good number of (particularly older) swing and traditional Labour voters at the same time. How far that balances out I don’t know, and perhaps Labour will get stronger with demographic changes if the Tory Party doesn’t adapt.

Personally as someone who voted Labour in 2015 and previous elections (switching to Lib Dem in 2017)  I was surprised last year at the number of centre-left or previously apolitical friends who were ecstatic that Labour had given May and the Tories a bloody nose, despite  empowering the hard left in the Labour Party. The hubris and tone set by May basically started a culture war seemingly directed against the young, which has been a far more important driver of Labour’s support than their policies.

If Corbyn does get into power it is going to be such a car crash of Trumpian proportions that a lot of people are going to be disillusioned and regretful.

[kyc0705]

Someone from the soft left could probably pick up the extra 3 to 5 points Labour needs whereas low 40s is Corbyn's ceiling.

Is there anyone who sticks out as a contender?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Someone from the soft left could probably pick up the extra 3 to 5 points Labour needs whereas low 40s is Corbyn's ceiling.

Is there anyone who sticks out as a contender?

I'm going to preemptively rule out who Miles will probably suggest, and say it won't be Sadiq Khan. He doesn't want it and won't particular add much.

I think it would have to be someone that Corbyn circle have no objections to - a loyalist - but is perhaps a bit of a more "normal" figure than Corbyn. (Anybody thinking a leader can walk in without Corbyn's approvals is kidding themselves). Emily Thornberry could be a good choice, as would Angela Rayner. Starmer would be a nice leader, but I don't think he wants it. I would have once said Clive Lewis, but he probably can't manage it right now. Maybe even Pidcock, despite her uber left posturing and young age.

[Blair]

Around 1994, the British Tories faced similar troubles, but were trailing by 15-20 points in the polls rather than slightly ahead thus I believe, even though some disagree, more evidence that Labour would be doing better with a more centrist leader (maybe not as centrist as Tony Blair, but similar to traditional social democratic party leaders in continental Europe not loony left like Corbyn). 

Imo loony left was a tagline often used to attack people who support gay rights, elected police oversight and race relations work. All things which are now mainstream in the Conservative Party!

This isn't 1994 though; the Tories haven't been in government for what 15 years, they're not withdrawing the whip from MPs, and they're not facing an economy where interest rates have skyrocketed to 15%.

[Hnv1]

Someone from the soft left could probably pick up the extra 3 to 5 points Labour needs whereas low 40s is Corbyn's ceiling.

Is there anyone who sticks out as a contender?

I'm going to preemptively rule out who Miles will probably suggest, and say it won't be Sadiq Khan. He doesn't want it and won't particular add much.

I think it would have to be someone that Corbyn circle have no objections to - a loyalist - but is perhaps a bit of a more "normal" figure than Corbyn. (Anybody thinking a leader can walk in without Corbyn's approvals is kidding themselves). Emily Thornberry could be a good choice, as would Angela Rayner. Starmer would be a nice leader, but I don't think he wants it. I would have once said Clive Lewis, but he probably can't manage it right now. Maybe even Pidcock, despite her uber left posturing and young age.

A 31 year old nobody is not going to win a GE even with all the yoof vote and any free party ketamine user turning out to vote

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

We live in a Kurz/Ardern/Macron world now. Yoof leaders rule

[parochial boy]

Brexit will be reversed and Chukka Umuna will come back from the dead to lead Very New Labour to a stunning 12 point landslide in 2021

Ok, maybe not, but I reckon narrative and appearance is much more important than ideological triangulation in terms of winning elections, a fact that seems to pass some people by sometimes

[mileslunn]

We live in a Kurz/Ardern/Macron world now. Yoof leaders rule

You forgot Justin Trudeau.  He might be a bit older than those three but he acts quite immature compared to them.  That being said choosing Laura Pidcock would be nuts.  She is funny to listen to as she is truly a nutbar, but I don't think she could win, at least not now.  Kurz is fairly conservative like Austria is, Ardern is soft left not hard left, and Macron is a centrist (he would probably be a Liberal Democrat if in the UK).  If Pidcock became PM, UK would be on the verge of bankruptcy in five years and a worse basket case than Greece, while heading the way of Venezuela although not quite as bad.  Of the Corbynite younger members, someone like Cat Smith would probably be more electable and still fairly left wing but not complete nuts.  People like Dennis Skinner, Chris Williamson, and Laura Pidcock are off the scale nuts and even less electable than Jacob Rees-Mogg on the right.

[EPG]

Brexit will be reversed and Chukka Umuna will come back from the dead to lead Very New Labour to a stunning 12 point landslide in 2021

Ok, maybe not, but I reckon narrative and appearance is much more important than ideological triangulation in terms of winning elections, a fact that seems to pass some people by sometimes

Yeah, to an extent. Canada elected a guy because he was the world's most attractive man. France and the USA elected very different, but equally messianic, national redeemers. But the narrative has to emerge from somewhere. Marxians would say it's economics, white culture obsessives would say it's a sectarian or racial dialectic versus Muslims. And on the other side, a single ideological concession can do enough damage to reverse thirty years of work. Tuition fees. The war in Iraq.

(It's easier to destroy your reputation than build it? no points for blinding novel insight for me)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

We live in a Kurz/Ardern/Macron world now. Yoof leaders rule

You forgot Justin Trudeau.  He might be a bit older than those three but he acts quite immature compared to them.  That being said choosing Laura Pidcock would be nuts.  She is funny to listen to as she is truly a nutbar, but I don't think she could win, at least not now.  Kurz is fairly conservative like Austria is, Ardern is soft left not hard left, and Macron is a centrist (he would probably be a Liberal Democrat if in the UK).  If Pidcock became PM, UK would be on the verge of bankruptcy in five years and a worse basket case than Greece, while heading the way of Venezuela although not quite as bad.  Of the Corbynite younger members, someone like Cat Smith would probably be more electable and still fairly left wing but not complete nuts.  People like Dennis Skinner, Chris Williamson, and Laura Pidcock are off the scale nuts and even less electable than Jacob Rees-Mogg on the right.

Williamson is unelectable for obvious reasons, but real people don't care where you lie on the political compass. You need to look at things from the perspective of people who don't follow politics, not nerds like us who go "gasp he lies over 27.5 percentage points from my score on PoliticalIdealogyCompass.com, I could never vote for such a rogue".

[ViaActiva]

Around 1994, the British Tories faced similar troubles, but were trailing by 15-20 points in the polls rather than slightly ahead thus I believe, even though some disagree, more evidence that Labour would be doing better with a more centrist leader (maybe not as centrist as Tony Blair, but similar to traditional social democratic party leaders in continental Europe not loony left like Corbyn).

Imo loony left was a tagline often used to attack people who support gay rights, elected police oversight and race relations work. All things which are now mainstream in the Conservative Party!

Those were never the main points of contention: these are the people who have argued for mass nationalisation, instinctively hostile to and with no understanding of business, unilateral disarmanent, sympathy for the IRA, USSR/Russia, Hamas/Hezbollah, Venezuela, anyone who isn’t the United States no matter how depraved and/or authoritarian they are.

Not a Labour supporter but for the sake of reasonable Oppositon in an ideal world I’d like to see someone like Angela Rayner, Hilary Benn, Stephen Kinnock or Liz Kendall though doubt the last three would get anywhere in the modern Labour Party.

[Silent Hunter]

Kinnock has spent more time in a Prime Ministerial residence (as his wife is the former Danish PM) than Corbyn likely ever will.

[warandwar]

That being said choosing Laura Pidcock would be nuts.  She is funny to listen to as she is truly a nutbar, she is part of the working class and I am prejudiced against that but I don't think she could win, at least not now. 

FTFY

[mileslunn]

That being said choosing Laura Pidcock would be nuts.  She is funny to listen to as she is truly a nutbar, she is part of the working class and I am prejudiced against that but I don't think she could win, at least not now. 

FTFY

I am not prejudiced against her because she is working class, I just think our ideas are crazy.  Note Che Guevera and Fidel Castro came from rich families so class has nothing to do with it.  Her, Dennis Skinner, Chris Williamson, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott are the ones are consider nutbars as everywhere IMHO where their policies have been tried they failed miserably.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not sure if lumping any of those people together with Williamson - who is a rather... erm... singular... Member of Parliament in certain respects - is particularly fair...

[mileslunn]

Not sure if lumping any of those people together with Williamson - who is a rather... erm... singular... Member of Parliament in certain respects - is particularly fair...

Each has their own styles, but they are all on the left wing of the party and well to the left of most Brits so that is what they have in common.

[ViaActiva]

Not sure if lumping any of those people together with Williamson - who is a rather... erm... singular... Member of Parliament in certain respects - is particularly fair...

Just off the top of my head...

Diane Abbott said that Mao did more good than harm. https://youtube.com/watch?v=uB4o5n2EGyA

John McDonnell joked about an Opposition MP being lynched and going back in time to murder Margaret Thatcher and has repeatedly refused to apologise.
 
I can’t think of anything particularly nasty or crazy from Skinner although his entire career seems to have consisted of partisan hectoring rather than any genuine contribution to public debate or policy (beyond the job description of your average constituency MP).

[Blair]

Say what you like about McDonnell but he's done very very well on his brief at the Treasury. You can call him a lot of things, but he's not incompetent

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 If Pidcock became PM, UK would be on the verge of bankruptcy in five years and a worse basket case than Greece, while heading the way of Venezuela although not quite as bad.  Of the Corbynite younger members, someone like Cat Smith would probably be more electable and still fairly left wing but not complete nuts.  People like Dennis Skinner, Chris Williamson, and Laura Pidcock are off the scale nuts and even less electable than Jacob Rees-Mogg on the right.
[/quote]

Can we not post this type of rubbish on this thread?

Like where do you get the view that Cat Smith would be electable? Like she's the definition of just a bland corbynite frontbencher. At least Pidock has some ability to make a story (and I say that as someone who's not at all her biggest fan)

[mileslunn]

As for Cat Smith, don't know much about her, but David Cameron once commented she made an intelligent question and suggested she run for Labour leader, although maybe that was tongue and cheek.  As for the names mentioned, just pointing out they are quite left wing.  Now to be fair maybe there is a market for that, after all there is no shortage of countries including the US have leaders that most would consider too far right to be electable (In Europe you have Poland and Hungary) so more just an observation.

[EPG]

It's never harmful to assume David Cameron is speaking tongue-in-cheek as if life's a game and everything's a lark.

[ViaActiva]

Say what you like about McDonnell but he's done very very well on his brief at the Treasury. You can call him a lot of things, but he's not incompetent.

He has been better than expected in projecting a calm bank manager image and clearly has some grey matter but that’s not particularly re-assuring if the ideas themselves are still crazy. I think it’s a huge stretch to say he has done ‘very very well’ as Shadow Chancellor when even has admitted that a Labour govt would cause a run on the pound.

He’s a nasty, spiteful and highly narrow-minded man who should not let anywhere near the public finances or economic policy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not sure if lumping any of those people together with Williamson - who is a rather... erm... singular... Member of Parliament in certain respects - is particularly fair...

Each has their own styles, but they are all on the left wing of the party and well to the left of most Brits so that is what they have in common.

They are indeed all firmly on the Left and most are also ultrapartisan, but only one of them (for instance) regularly endorses conspiracy theories Online.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

As for Cat Smith, don't know much about her, but David Cameron once commented she made an intelligent question and suggested she run for Labour leader, although maybe that was tongue and cheek.  As for the names mentioned, just pointing out they are quite left wing.  Now to be fair maybe there is a market for that, after all there is no shortage of countries including the US have leaders that most would consider too far right to be electable (In Europe you have Poland and Hungary) so more just an observation.

Miles, please listen: the public don't care about left or right or centre. That is the domain of the political anorak.

[EPG]

As for Cat Smith, don't know much about her, but David Cameron once commented she made an intelligent question and suggested she run for Labour leader, although maybe that was tongue and cheek.  As for the names mentioned, just pointing out they are quite left wing.  Now to be fair maybe there is a market for that, after all there is no shortage of countries including the US have leaders that most would consider too far right to be electable (In Europe you have Poland and Hungary) so more just an observation.

Miles, please listen: the public don't care about left or right or centre. That is the domain of the political anorak.

Again, is this really true? I always thought ideology did matter in the UK, more than say America. Liverpool tends to vote Labour, and Surrey Tory.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

People calling Jeremy Corbyn an anti Semite: