German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

[TheSaint250]

Ok thanks guys.

[Yeahsayyeah]

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There could also be some anti-AfD-mobilisation effect. We will start to see what happens in about three and a half hours.

Leipzig turnout curve unchanged. About six per cent up by 2 o'clock with postal ballots.

[Tender Branson]

We should get the estimated 2pm turnout numbers for Germany soon.

Problem: They will very likely be without postal ballots. So if turnout is the same as 2013, it's probably up by some 5% in reality because of the postal surge.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

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There could also be some anti-AfD-mobilisation effect. We will start to see what happens in about three and a half hours.

Leipzig turnout curve unchanged. About six per cent up by 2 o'clock with postal ballots.

Leipzig is an Antifa stronghold embraced by a very right-wing area, so high turnout could redound to the Left's advantage.

[Yeahsayyeah]

But the "Antifa" is exactly 0.1 per cent of the population or something... ;-)

Actually it could be a wash. There are still very deprived parts of the city where the AfD could be strong. On the other hand Leipzig is one of the fastest growing and changing big cities in Germany with the influx of many younger people who come for studying, apprenticeship, work and so on. This probably does account for the higher turnout.

[Beezer]

All of this reading of the tealeaves seems somewhat pointless. Somebody else has already mentioned the US election. Remember the (supposed) huge surge in early voting in many areas that were supposed to guarantee a Clinton victory?

[Tender Branson]

Merkel's district also having a significant uptick in turnout:

http://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/Vorpommern/Greifswald/Politik/Hansestadt-bisher-mit-hoher-Wahlbeteiligung

54% (incl. postal votes) until 2pm.

[DavidB.]

Even if it does prove to be true that the turnout surge is only urban, cities -- German cities in particular -- are not only inhabited by students and bobos, but also by a whole lot of workers and former workers who may not necessarily vote for the left (anymore).

[Tender Branson]

It's 3pm.

Time for coffee and cake !

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It's 3pm.

Time for coffee and cake !

By the way, what time is displayed at the top of this page?

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm holding out hope that we will see a disappointing showing for the far right, just like we saw in France and the Netherlands. And I'd not mind an FDP surge in addition But the most important thing for me is that the AfD don't get anywhere close to a good result.

[Tender Branson]

Munich turnout for 2pm remains stunning:

71.6% (+14.5%)

[Tender Branson]

Germany-wide turnout (2pm):

41.1% (-0.3%)

... but that is without postal ballots, so it's probably 5% higher.

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[DavidB.]

Germany (Sachsen-Anhalt): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 36.2%
2017: 42.5%

Germany (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 37.2%
2017: 37.3%

Germany (Hamburg): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 48.9%
2017: 50.8%

Germany (Thuringia): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 55.6%
2017: 50.9%

Germany (Bremen): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 40.5%
2017: 42.5%

Germany (Hesse): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 40.0%
2017: 45.9%

[Hnv1]

I predict a Linke/Afd coup.

Anyway my friend in Würzburg and all her friends were staunch SPD voters and they all voted Die Linke to
counter the Afd

[DavidB.]

There are rumors going around in Social Democratic circles that the SPD is at 18 - 22% in the post-voting forecasts

Not surprising, there is just no reason to vote SPD this election. It's probably actually better for them to be at a disastrous 19% than to be at 22% and under pressure for a next grand coalition.

[Oryxslayer]

Germany (Sachsen-Anhalt): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 36.2%
2017: 42.5%

Germany (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 37.2%
2017: 37.3%

Germany (Hamburg): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 48.9%
2017: 50.8%

Germany (Thuringia): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 55.6%
2017: 50.9%

Germany (Bremen): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 40.5%
2017: 42.5%

Germany (Hesse): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 40.0%
2017: 45.9%

Okay, so who do we think is surging of the turnout? Its not SPD, or else Hamburg and Bremen would be higher then Thuringia. Its not AFD, or Meklenburg-Vorpommern would be higher. I'm personally leaning towards a Linke/Green/FDP surge...

[jaichind]

Germany (Sachsen-Anhalt): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 36.2%
2017: 42.5%

Germany (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 37.2%
2017: 37.3%

Germany (Hamburg): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 48.9%
2017: 50.8%

Germany (Thuringia): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 55.6%
2017: 50.9%

Germany (Bremen): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 40.5%
2017: 42.5%

Germany (Hesse): Turnout 1400 CEST:
2013: 40.0%
2017: 45.9%

Okay, so who do we think is surging of the turnout? Its not SPD, or else Hamburg and Bremen would be higher then Thuringia. Its not AFD, or Meklenburg-Vorpommern would be higher. I'm personally leaning towards a Linke/Green/FDP surge...

I thought AfD was very strong in Sachsen-Anhalt so a turnout surge there might be AfD.

[Tender Branson]

Or maybe ... higher turnout benefits ... every party ?

[Tender Branson]

Frankfurt could hit 80%:

[Lotuslander]

Munich turnout already at 79.8%.

[Tender Branson]

Munich turnout already at 79.8%.

I suspect ballot-stuffing, because this is ... unreal.

[_]

I thought this election was boring?  Why is turnout so damn high?

[Tender Branson]

My above comment was obviously a joke ...

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The state of Rheinland-Pfalz also reports high turnout (+8% compared with 2013, incl. postal ballots).

http://www.meine-vrm.de/politik/rheinland-pfalz/rheinland-pfalz-verzeichnet-deutlich-hoehere-wahlbeteiligung_18202453.htm

[DavidB.]

EuropeElects has a turnout prognosis of 80%, but not clear whose made it and what it is based on.