Spanish General Election 2011

[Hash]

If anybody is interested in this trainwreck:

The PP will win, and if they don't win an absolute majority they should shoot themselves for stupidity. Their campaign is stupid, boring, populistic and hypocritical (attacking the PSOE from the left). But nobody cares. The PP has a deal with the UPN (Navarre) and the PAR (Aragon)

Bildu and Aralar have formed a coalition named Amaiur, Aralar will lead it in Navarre where Amaiur's creation means the end for NaBai. NaBai's only deputy, Uxue Barkos (indie) has formed her coalition with the PNV called Geroa Bai (as time goes on, the name for these coalitions become increasingly terribly tin-pot). The effects of Amaiur on the PNV are as of yet unknown, with predictions for PNV seats ranging from 3 to 7.

Equo, Spain's new green-left party, is going to run. In the Balearics, it has formed a coalition with the nationalists (PSM) and in Valencia with the Coalicio Compromis (nationalists). It is led in Madrid by former Greenpeace boss Juan López de Uralde and the number two is Inés Sabanés (ex-IU). It could win seats, especially given that the threshold in Madrid is like 2-2.5%.

Francisco Alvarez-Cascos, the president of Asturias and leader of the right-wing FAC will run in Madrid and Asturias. It could win seats. Alvarez-Cascos is a former VP of the government under Aznar and was on the PP's far-right and always complained that nobody liked him and threw a hissy fit and left the party. He's one of those 90s-like "regional party which hates regionalists". The FAC needs 10-11% in Asturias to win one seat.

Revilla, the former president of Cantabria and leader of the regionalist PRC is running in Cantabria and elsewhere with the PCAS (Castilian Party) and PR (Riojan party). He'd need 16% in Cantabria to win a seat.

Spanish pollsters are fyckwits who refuse to poll Amaiur, Equo or FAC. And only right-wing media polls, basically.

A PP internal had PP on 189 seats, PSOE on 115, IU on 8, CiU on 14, PNV 6, UPYD 3, PNV 6, Amaiur 4-5 and FAC 1-2. A poll by El Mundo sez PP 47.4%/PSOE 31.8%/IU 5%/CIU 3.2%/UPYD 3.1%/PNV 1.2%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The PP will win, and if they don't win an absolute majority they should shoot themselves for stupidity. Their campaign is stupid, boring, populistic and hypocritical (attacking the PSOE from the left). But nobody cares.

Aren't you a bit pessimistic ? I don't really know how each party stands right now, but there are still weeks before the elections and if PP is that uninspiring the current trend could maybe be reversed.

[Niemeyerite]

Yes, Spanish polls are the worst in the World =/

I can't understand why the hell they don't poll Amaiur!! I remember when pollsters said Alvarez Casvcos was a distant 3rd in May.. LoL

Here's what I think:


-1st Uxue will be reelected, she's a good fit for Navarra and people like her.
-2nd Rubalcaba is a damn good campaigner. He'll make the elction closer... I don't think he will win, but PP will not have an absolute majority if he continues fighting.
-3rd Equo is being polled, and I think they'll get 1 seat from Madrid, 1 from Barcelona and 1 from Valencia.
4th Revilla deserves his seat in Cantabria. And he will win it.
5th Alvarez-Cascos may finish 2nd, after PSOE, in Asturias... Nobody knows, but he will likely get his seat in Asturias and 1 in Madrid is also likely... I know a lot of people here who are going to vote for him.. I think even Aguirre will do that xD
6th I think PSOE should break up with UPN in Navarra and govern with Na-Bai, IU and Bildu after the coalition PP-UPN, which makes me sick.
7th Hopefully, IU and CHA will go together in the lists... and if they form a coalition, I think it's likely they will be able to elect 1 congressperson.
8th UPyD will have worst results than expected
Here's my prediction, more or less:

PP - 165 to 175 seats
PSOE - 130 to 140 seats
IU - 5 to 8 seats
Equo/Compromis/ICV - 3 to 5 seats
UPyD - 2 to 3 seats (the problem is that I don't know where)
CiU - 11 to 13 seats
PNV - 5 to 6 seats
Amaiur - 3 to 6 seats
FAC - 1 to 3 seats
ERC - 2 seats
PRC - 1 seat
CC - 2 to 3 seats
PxC - 0 seats /it may sound weird, but I wouldn't mind if they won 1 seat, because PP deserve to have opposition from the right)
PR/PCAS/PA and other parties - 0 seats

[Hash]

The gap may close, yeah, and I'm a bit wary of the polls because the bulk of them are for the right-wing media (though one for the Periodico showed the same numbers).

But even if the PP campaign sucks balls, they're the sole governing alternative to a government in a country with 20%+ unemployment and which makes headlines daily because it is speculated it'll go bankrupt like Greece soon. Even if the opposition sucks balls, it's hard for it not to win in a landslide (eg: Enda Kenny). Their campaign sucked balls in May and there were some important corruption cases then, yet it won in a landslide too. I guess they'll win a narrow absolute majority, at 2000 levels give or take. Similar result for the PSOE, a bit over the 2000 results if they campaign well.

re: Upyd: if they are to win 2 or 3 additional seats, they'll be in Madrid. Their problem is that outside Madrid, they do best in provinces which have very few seats, and do more poorly in the populated provinces like in Valencia or Andalusia. Valencia might be its only big chance outside Madrid and they have an actor guy as their candidate there.

[Peeperkorn]

The PP (horrible party) will win with a majority, then the economy will be worse, then riots n' stuff. The King shall save the country again.

"Eshpanoles, vuestro Rey sufre con vosotro'" and all that sh**t.

[Niemeyerite]

Hash, Toni Cantó is a good candidate for UPyD in Valencia... I think they may get 2 seats in Madrid and maybe 1 in Valencia... I hate Cantó, but people like him, and I don't know why. Maybe it is because his daughter, 18, died last year.

And, remember, in May, PSOE got 28% of the vote and PP 38%. what does that mean? PSOE had a horrible result, but PP didn't have a good result, they should have reacher 40%. I don't think Rajoy will get an absolute majority.

There will be at least 2 debates. I hope Rubalcaba makes Rajoy cry there.

[Peeperkorn]

Hash, Toni Cantó is a good candidate for UPyD in Valencia... I think they may get 2 seats in Madrid and maybe 1 in Valencia... I hate Cantó, but people like him, and I don't know why. Maybe it is because his daughter, 18, died last year.

And, remember, in May, PSOE got 28% of the vote and PP 38%. what does that mean? PSOE had a horrible result, but PP didn't have a good result, they should have reacher 40%. I don't think Rajoy will get an absolute majority.

There will be at least 2 debates. I hope Rubalcaba makes Rajoy cry there.

Valencia created Benidorm, Zaplana and España2000.

[Peeperkorn]

Hash, Toni Cantó is a good candidate for UPyD in Valencia... I think they may get 2 seats in Madrid and maybe 1 in Valencia... I hate Cantó, but people like him, and I don't know why. Maybe it is because his daughter, 18, died last year.

And, remember, in May, PSOE got 28% of the vote and PP 38%. what does that mean? PSOE had a horrible result, but PP didn't have a good result, they should have reacher 40%. I don't think Rajoy will get an absolute majority.

There will be at least 2 debates. I hope Rubalcaba makes Rajoy cry there.

Rajoy will talk about la niña de Rajoy, rajoydi.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nd2hVRKWnLs

[redcommander]

The PP (horrible party) will win with a majority, then the economy will be worse, then riots n' stuff. The King shall save the country again.

"Eshpanoles, vuestro Rey sufre con vosotro'" and all that sh**t.

Why aren't you a PP supporter if you vote Conservative in Uruguay? I'm not sure if Juan Carlos can do much if there are more protests.

[Peeperkorn]

The PP (horrible party) will win with a majority, then the economy will be worse, then riots n' stuff. The King shall save the country again.

"Eshpanoles, vuestro Rey sufre con vosotro'" and all that sh**t.

Why aren't you a PP supporter if you vote Conservative in Uruguay? I'm not sure if Juan Carlos can do much if there are more protests.

Conservatives in Spain are much more to the right than right parties in Uruguay. I mean, half of the right parties here support homosexual marriage.

[redcommander]

The PP (horrible party) will win with a majority, then the economy will be worse, then riots n' stuff. The King shall save the country again.

"Eshpanoles, vuestro Rey sufre con vosotro'" and all that sh**t.

Why aren't you a PP supporter if you vote Conservative in Uruguay? I'm not sure if Juan Carlos can do much if there are more protests.

Conservatives in Spain are much more to the right than right parties in Uruguay. I mean, half of the right parties here support homosexual marriage.

So is the Frente Amplio and Colorado Party basically borderline Communist then?

[redcommander]

It's somewhat surprising Republicanism isn't as strong in Spain as in some other nations. Doesn't it seem a little pointless for millions of Euros being spent each year to maintain palaces, and other properties which the Royal Family doesn't even use (The Palace in Madrid being a perfect example)? I have nothing against them, it just seems strange that they are so modest relative to their Royal status.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't really know, but it must have something to do with the king having played a key role in the country's democratization after Franco's death.

[Peeperkorn]

There's a proverb in Spanish: "Juancarlista but not Realista".

And I don't understand the problem with the uruguayan right being secular. This is one of the less religious countries in the world.

[redcommander]

There's a proverb in Spanish: "Juancarlista but not Realista".

And I don't understand the problem with the uruguayan right being secular. This is one of the less religious countries in the world.

There's nothing wrong with it, I was just trying to make a little joke about how left wing it is which I guess fell flat. Isn't that ironic since Latin America is a very religious region of the world?

[Niemeyerite]

There are lots of Republicans here... I am a republican, too. My father is, my mother, my teachers, my neighbors... I supoose about 60% of the people here are republican... what's the problem??

The left (republicans) love the King. I like Juan Carlos, too. we think he's a leftie guy, and a republican, too. we have a republican King, imagine!!! The right used to like him, but now they hate him, I see it when I talk to conservative people, and when I watch conservative channels xD


So, I think we will ask for Republic when the King dies. Communists and "Indignados" are already fighting for the Republic, but Socialists like me prefer to let the King die after a good life.
If Spain had to vote in "King elections" Juan Carlos would win in a landslide... so, what's the problem with him?? He's not expensive like the Queen of England, he doesn't like big Castles and Palaces.

[redcommander]

There are lots of Republicans here... I am a republican, too. My father is, my mother, my teachers, my neighbors... I supoose about 60% of the people here are republican... what's the problem??

The left (republicans) love the King. I like Juan Carlos, too. we think he's a leftie guy, and a republican, too. we have a republican King, imagine!!! The right used to like him, but now they hate him, I see it when I talk to conservative people, and when I watch conservative channels xD


So, I think we will ask for Republic when the King dies. Communists and "Indignados" are already fighting for the Republic, but Socialists like me prefer to let the King die after a good life.
If Spain had to vote in "King elections" Juan Carlos would win in a landslide... so, what's the problem with him?? He's not expensive like the Queen of England, he doesn't like big Castles and Palaces.

I like him too, but just thought it was a little odd how much money the Prime Minister spends on maintaining all these Royal properties that the Royal Family doesn't want to live in. I guess Republicanism is more popular there then I thought. It just seems strange that there has not been successful efforts to put the question of a Republic on the ballot through a referendum like some countries have done. The King's personal popularity I guess is probably the reason like you said.

[Niemeyerite]

There are lots of Republicans here... I am a republican, too. My father is, my mother, my teachers, my neighbors... I supoose about 60% of the people here are republican... what's the problem??

The left (republicans) love the King. I like Juan Carlos, too. we think he's a leftie guy, and a republican, too. we have a republican King, imagine!!! The right used to like him, but now they hate him, I see it when I talk to conservative people, and when I watch conservative channels xD


So, I think we will ask for Republic when the King dies. Communists and "Indignados" are already fighting for the Republic, but Socialists like me prefer to let the King die after a good life.
If Spain had to vote in "King elections" Juan Carlos would win in a landslide... so, what's the problem with him?? He's not expensive like the Queen of England, he doesn't like big Castles and Palaces.

I like him too, but just thought it was a little odd how much money the Prime Minister spends on maintaining all these Royal properties that the Royal Family doesn't want to live in. I guess Republicanism is more popular there then I thought. It just seems strange that there has not been successful efforts to put the question of a Republic on the ballot through a referendum like some countries have done. The King's personal popularity I guess is probably the reason like you said.

Yes, that's it. When the King dies, I think the Left will cry more than the Right haha... However, when the King dies, people will go to the streets to ask for a Republic. Old people from the left always talk to us about the 2nd Republic, and a majority of the youngs want a Republic here (specially grandchildren of that people who fought for the Republic in the Civil War).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Mariano Rajoy isn´t fit to run an egg and spoon race... Though this clearly has never stopped people before, least of all in Spain.

[Peeperkorn]

Mariano Rajoy isn´t fit to run an egg and spoon race... Though this clearly has never stopped people before, least of all in Spain.

I prefer him rather than Esperanza Aguirre.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mariano Rajoy isn´t fit to run an egg and spoon race... Though this clearly has never stopped people before, least of all in Spain.

That's a nice variation on an old line. I may steal it.

[Niemeyerite]

I prefer Rajoy to Aguirre because I hate Aguirre. but Rajoy will not be good for Spain

[Keystone Phil]

Is it fair to say that PP is close to the mainstream of the Republican Party here (let's try to avoid the Tea Party rants, etc.)?

[afleitch]

Is it fair to say that PP is close to the mainstream of the Republican Party here (let's try to avoid the Tea Party rants, etc.)?

I think it's fair to say that no mainstream conservative western European political party is close to the mainstream of the Republican Party.

[Hash]

Is it fair to say that PP is close to the mainstream of the Republican Party here (let's try to avoid the Tea Party rants, etc.)?

Aguirre, FAC and their gang are close to the modern mainstream of the GOP. Rajoy and the gang would be rather moderate establishment politicians. Ruiz-Gallardon and his gang would be Democrats.