OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7 (user search)
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  OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7  (Read 110386 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #25 on: August 07, 2018, 07:41:48 PM »
O'Connor's lead falling fast with only 10% of the ED vote in.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #26 on: August 07, 2018, 07:55:30 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on August 07, 2018, 07:43:52 PM
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on August 07, 2018, 07:42:57 PM
Quote from: SHO MI YOWA BUREIV HAAT on August 07, 2018, 07:41:48 PM
O'Connor's lead falling fast with only 10% of the ED vote in.

That is 100% expected.

Really? I expected him to rise from a 60 point lead to a 70 point lead!

Of course he was going to lose ground. The point is how fast.

Down to 7.5 points already.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #27 on: August 07, 2018, 07:56:38 PM »
Quote from: Seattle on August 07, 2018, 07:55:28 PM
Quote from: ON Progressive on August 07, 2018, 07:54:21 PM
I'm not liking the Licking County result, honestly.

O'Connor's benchmark is -18%, and he's at -17.9 so he's okay there.

He's almost certainly going to go further down.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #28 on: August 07, 2018, 08:18:05 PM »
I think Balderson has this. Delaware is trending toward him fast and Franklin is mostly done.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #29 on: August 07, 2018, 08:18:53 PM »
F**k it, it's over.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #30 on: August 07, 2018, 08:25:25 PM »
New Franklin dump and O'Connor is still behind. This is over.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #31 on: August 07, 2018, 08:51:03 PM »
Balderson leads by over 1000. It's over.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #32 on: August 07, 2018, 08:54:25 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on August 07, 2018, 08:51:30 PM

We've heard you say "It's over" like fifteen times.

Well, it is.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #33 on: August 07, 2018, 09:03:58 PM »
Does anyone know how many provisionals there are?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #34 on: August 07, 2018, 09:22:43 PM »
Quote from: Chief Justice Keef on August 07, 2018, 09:20:46 PM
The provisional ballots are not gonna save O'Connor. People saying "it's over" ought to keep saying it as long as there's posters who believe there's a golden box of absentees waiting to be picked up in Franklin County.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #35 on: August 08, 2018, 06:39:43 AM »
According to the Ohio SoS, there are 5000K absentees and 3500K provisionals. Absentees are probably going to break about even, so even if you want to be optimistic O'Connor could net 500 votes out of them at the very best. That means O'Connor would need to win 68% of provisional ballots to make up his deficit - but that's assuming all of them are counted, which is never the case with provisionals. If only half are counted, he would need to win 86% of those.

In other words: it's over. Still an indicator that the partisan climate favors Democrats, of course, but we knew it already and it wasn't the point of this election. The point was to reduce the number of seats needed to win from 23 to 22, and we failed at that. Not a huge blow, but still a setback.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #36 on: August 08, 2018, 08:43:07 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on August 08, 2018, 07:31:58 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 08, 2018, 07:12:36 AM
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on August 08, 2018, 06:52:02 AM
Quote from: SHO MI YOWA BUREIV HAAT on August 08, 2018, 06:39:43 AM
According to the Ohio SoS, there are 5000K absentees and 3500K provisionals. Absentees are probably going to break about even, so even if you want to be optimistic O'Connor could net 500 votes out of them at the very best. That means O'Connor would need to win 68% of provisional ballots to make up his deficit - but that's assuming all of them are counted, which is never the case with provisionals. If only half are counted, he would need to win 86% of those.

In other words: it's over. Still an indicator that the partisan climate favors Democrats, of course, but we knew it already and it wasn't the point of this election. The point was to reduce the number of seats needed to win from 23 to 22, and we failed at that. Not a huge blow, but still a setback.

Aren't you just a ray of sunshine.

He's completely correct.

There might be enough provisional/remaining absentee votes to get in into the recount margin, but really that's all we are waiting for.

Recounts rarely flip the results unless the margin is insanely close to begin with, like within 0.1%. But yeah, either way, we want to make sure all votes are counted.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #37 on: August 08, 2018, 05:16:21 PM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on August 08, 2018, 05:11:36 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 08, 2018, 05:11:00 PM


That's some counting error.

If true, that means O'Connor only needs to win about 55% of absentees and 70-80% of provisionals. Still unattainable.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #38 on: August 09, 2018, 05:49:18 AM »
Every vote should be counted, yeah. It's perfectly fair of O'Connor not to concede until then, even if he obviously won't win.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #39 on: August 10, 2018, 07:00:50 PM »
...oh, wow. Okay, if this pattern holds, O'Connor could net a full 1000 votes from the remaining absentees. He would still need to win around 65% of the remaining provisionals to edge out Balderson, but that doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility.

I'd love to look like an idiot for saying it was over. Cheesy
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #40 on: August 14, 2018, 10:15:31 AM »
Do we know when the absentees and provisionals will actually be counted?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #41 on: August 14, 2018, 10:28:41 AM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on August 14, 2018, 10:20:43 AM
Quote from: SHO MI YOWA BUREIV HAAT on August 14, 2018, 10:15:31 AM
Do we know when the absentees and provisionals will actually be counted?

18th I think.

oh, great
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #42 on: August 15, 2018, 06:39:28 AM »
Yeah, there's no way O'Connor can make up his deficit on just that.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #43 on: August 18, 2018, 04:58:28 AM »
Quote from: Greatblueheron on August 18, 2018, 03:11:18 AM
If Danny O’Conner was smart he’d accept that he lost the special election, and devote his remaining resources to trying to win the general election. Sadly, it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the seat in November, because, if he couldn’t flip it in a august special election with low Republican turnout it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip it in a high turnout general election when more Republicans show up.

Every vote should be counted.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #44 on: August 19, 2018, 10:40:27 AM »
Well this is getting really anticlimactic.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #45 on: August 24, 2018, 05:06:15 PM »
Well, we tried.
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