Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

Also RIP the Spanish right in Catalonia and the Basque Country.

Currently PP-Cs-Vox are at 7 seats in Catalonia (down from 11); with 5 of those 7 going to Cs. More importantly they are at 0 in the Basque Country (down from 2).

Looking at

https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2019/generales/congreso/13/

It seems PP and C for that matter, did not even run candidates there.   What happened ?

PP and Cs ran on a joint list with a local right wing regionalist (but unionist) party named UPN, as part of Navarra Suma (NA+)

[Former President tack50]

With 92.27% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.79%
PP       16.69%
C        15.79%
UP       14.31%
VOX     10.24%

Two blocs pretty much identical which is a disaster for the Right.

Worth noting that the left has almost always won. Spain has always been a left of center country.

This is the first time the right wins 2 elections back to back in the popular vote, and only the fourth time ever after 2000, 2011 and 2016.

I'm not sure I understand. Adding that up makes 43.1% for the left bloc and 42.7% for the right bloc. How can the right claim a popular vote victory?

PSOE+UP right now add up to 43.01

Meanwhile the right adds up to 43.20

You need to remember to add up NA+ to the right wing total as that was a joint list between PP-Cs and a regional party; PP and Cs did not take part in the election in Navarra directly

Of course a 0.2% difference is essencially a tie

[Former President tack50]

Will CpM and PP will split the Melilla Senate seats (currently 1/1 with 22% counted) or will PP hold them both?

Senate seats with such a divided vote (PP, CpM and PSOE are all tied) can be weird to project, but on paper the most likely scenario would be PP holding both.

[Former President tack50]

At this point PSOE needs at least an abstention from either Bildu or ERC. No idea who of them will cave in the end (if either do). This is a better result than what happened before, but I still think this government won't last the full 4 year term.

It really depends on what the secessionists want to do.

[Former President tack50]

Municipality map courtesy of La Vanguardia

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190428/461917396278/resultados-elecciones-generales-espana-2019-en-tu-municipio.html

[Former President tack50]

If there’s one thing even I as a relative novice to Spanish politics can be confident of it’s that this election will not hinge on the idiosyncrasies of the vote in Ceuta and Melilla...

If CpM had won that seat, Sanchez wouldn't need to deal with ERC, JxC or Bildu.

Just to make sure I'm not missing anything -- PSOE + UP + PNV + Compromís + PRC = 173, so one seat wouldn't matter, right?

resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Congreso/Total-nacional/0/es

PSOE + UP + PNV + Compromís + PRC + CC = 175 only one to magical number...

Thanks -- so it's fine that CCa is conservative then?

Yeah, CCa is conservative. They can support PSOE under some limited circumstances, but they are not their preferred coalition party by any means.

Though CC is also, as I like to say, a Marxist party in the Groucho sense. They will change their principles if you bribe them invest more money in the Canaries enough

[Former President tack50]

PSOE + C's is not going to happen

Well, it's still very unlikely but, Sanchéz did said in his speech that he will not do "sanitary cord" in Parliament. What does this means? We'll see.

...he's willing to partner with Vox?!

Lol no. That only means he is willing to talk to Cs (and maybe even PP). But PSOE-PP is not happening and neither is PSOE-Cs I think.

[Former President tack50]

Also, decided to make maps of the election by bloc. The first includes the regional parties on the left-right count.

I decided to put PNV and JxCat on the right in order to better reflect ideology even if they would never do a deal with PP-Cs-Vox.

The 2nd one is pretty much a straight PSOE-UP-PACMA vs PP-Cs-Vox affair.





You can click on them if you want to enlarge them.

I'll probably do a swing and trend map later.

[Former President tack50]

Also, decided to make maps of the election by bloc. The first includes the regional parties on the left-right count.

I decided to put PNV and JxCat on the right in order to better reflect ideology even if they would never do a deal with PP-Cs-Vox.

The 2nd one is pretty much a straight PSOE-UP-PACMA vs PP-Cs-Vox affair.





You can click on them if you want to enlarge them.

I'll probably do a swing and trend map later.

I'm assuming this map is by region/autonomous community rather than province? Otherwise it's odd that every province in the same community has the same shade.

Yes, this is by Autonomous community even though the provinces are marked. Mostly because it's easier and faster to take notes of 19 results than 52.

[Former President tack50]

El País municipality map

I see Vox carried a few tiny places, but also a handful of bigger ones, e.g. El Ejido near Almería.

Are most of the places C's carried wealthy suburban type places?

Pretty much all the municipalities Cs carried are suburban/ex-urban places around Madrid, so I would say yes.

[Former President tack50]

Just did trend maps by autonomous community. These reflect the "PVI" change (sort of) of all autonomous communities. Again, you can click to zoom in.

I decided to split 0-2,5 and 2,5-5 to try to distinguish which were statistical oddities and which reflect real trends. Again PNV/JxCat are included in the right and ERC/Bildu/BNG/etc on the left.





The map with regional parties included is definitely striking, with pretty much all of southern Spain moving hard to the right.

The most surprising PVI result? Andalucia actually voted slightly to the right of Spain at large! (Right+1 PVI without nationalists; EVEN if you include them). First time ever that Andalucia does this. In only 8 years Andalucia has gone from Left+14 to Right+1! A 15 point trend in 8 years!

I imagine in the Spanish equivalent to Atlas we would now be having a discussion about "Andalucia racist rural hicks" vs "Rich Snobby Suburban Galicians" and how Rajoy would be a PSOE supporter now

[Former President tack50]

La Nueva España has an extremely nice precinct map of Asturias

https://afondo.lne.es/asturias/el-mapa-del-voto-en-asturias-por-vecindarios.html

Apparently PP was strongest in the city centers, especially of Oviedo. They also won a handful of precincts in the rural west.

PSOE pretty much swept the entire autonomous community. Asturias is a left wing region so no surprise there, but still nice to see.

Cs won a handful of precincts in rich suburban areas in Oviedo and Avilés (the 2 largest cities)

UP won a handful of precincts in the mining town of Mieres. Nice to see mining towns aren't shifting away from the left and into the far right like in say, France.

Eldiario.es also has nice district maps of the largest Spanish towns

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-distritos-principales-ciudades-espanolas_0_893811644.html

Also, a fantastic map of results by bloc and municipality

https://elecciones.eldiario.es/resultados28a/bloques?_ga=2.200689641.696649284.1556387208-1582734662.1550242349

[Former President tack50]

Honestly I think that if there wasn't an election next month Casado should have resigned already.

His shock is on par or worse than people who resigned on election day or shortly after like Suárez 1991 (local elections), Almunia 2000 or Fraga 1986 (who actually went up 1 seat!). Of course we all probably thought the same about Sánchez in 2015 and 2016 and look at him now.

Pablo Casado must be furiously reading Sánchez's "Resistance Manual" right now xD

[Former President tack50]

Any comments made by bildu? They will determine whether Sanchez will be able to govern or not after all.

Apparently they have said they will have the exact same position as ERC and will vote the same in Sánchez's confidence vote.

Beyond that they seem to be giving mixed signals. On one hand they claim they will support (or at least not oppose) Sánchez. On the other, they are asking for a referendum (presumably not just in Catalonia but also the Basque Country). They do seem to have some constructive rethoric but I certainly don't trust them at all.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/29/actualidad/1556549260_730422.html

https://www.lavanguardia.com/local/paisvasco/20190430/461968425827/otegi-eh-bildu-referendum-pedro-sanchez-gobierno-psoe-presidente-erc.html

I guess the situation will be similar to what happened before. They abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote, but then Sánchez's budget and important laws won't pass and we will go to an early election in 2021 or so.

A more interesting route seems to be this one instead:

ERC and JxCat included 4 people currently in prison and in so-called exile on their election lists, which have all taken a seat. These people, unless they renounce their seats, won't be able to swear in and sit in parliament.

That means that the majority for Sánchez to become president and pass laws will go down. With 4 seats less, that means a 346 member parliament effectively; with 174 seats required for a majority.

Coincidentally, Sánchez and his "comfortable" allies (Podemos, PNV, Compromís and PRC) add up to 173.

At that point Bildu and ERC would no longer be the kingmakers but instead that could also be the Canarian Coalition. They have said they won't support a joint Sánchez-Podemos government or one dependent on secessionists, but they could support a minority Sánchez government. If CC abstained, the vote would become 173 yes-171 no-2 abstain-4 not voting

So if the Catalans don't take their seats a la Sinn Fein, that's another option.

Finally, I've seen nothing from UPN, which would be the final option. They ran alongside Cs and PP in a joint list, but they are still an independent party after all.

[Former President tack50]

My precinct for comparison is much weaker for the left:

PSOE: 22%
Cs: 20%
PP: 18%
UP: 18%
Vox: 10%
CC: 4%
Others (mostly NCa+PACMA): 7%

Also, El Confidencial posted an analysis of the differences between Cs voters and PP voters. This isn't exactly new information but it's still very interesting to see.

1: PP wins in rural areas (municipalities below 10k inhabitants), Cs wins in urban areas (municipaliteis above 10k, and especially above 50k)

2: PP performs better among older people, Cs performs better among young people

3: More interestingly, Cs beats PP among rich people, while poorer places tend to vote PP

4: Cs beats PP in places with higher rates of college graduates

5: Cs beats PP among men, while PP performs better with women.

PP's vote seems to have become ruralized, feminized and pensionized according to the analysis. They also gave us a really nice map which does say a lot

Map: https://www.ecestaticos.com/file/73432f701818d283ec7efaa1557b390b/1556725218-20190501maparesultadosmunicipiosppcs-01.png

https://www.elconfidencial.com/elecciones-generales/2019-05-01/pp-ciudadanos-mujeres-pensionistas-sorpasso_1976170/

Posting only a link as posting the map itself pretty much breaks Atlas.

With a handful of exceptions (most notably the "nationalist" regions), the map is quite clear, showing Cs winning in urban and specially suburban areas while PP wins in rural areas.

Madrid province in particular is the funniest example; with Madrid city itself voting PP, the suburban areas around it voting Cs, and the rural areas voting PP.

[Former President tack50]

Is Aragonia, really that urban.

Yes and no. Most of the population is actually concentrated in Zaragoza city, but the rest of the region has extremely low population density, particularly Teruel. Southern Aragon (alongside neighbouring areas from Castille-Leon and Castille-La Mancha) has a population density comparable to Lapland!

Cs does perform strongly in certain rural areas, but PP id much stronger in the rurals at-large

[Former President tack50]

Remember that one muslim party who was really close to getting a seat in Melilla until like 80% of the vote was counted? Coalición por Melilla (CpM)

Well, apparently they have been banned from participating in the regional/local elections there because of not respecting men-women parity.

Spanish law mandates that in every block of 5 candidates in the list there must be a 3-2 split either way, but CpM's list had 4-1 splits on blocks 11-15 and 16-20. The election authorities as a response have blocked CpM from taking part in the election.

This is very big news, as CpM is currently the main opposition in Melilla, and had a big chance of becoming the next local government. With CpM out of the picture, Melilla seems very likely to remain in PP's hands, with PSOE probably going up and the muslims there abstaining (though many will vote PSOE I guess). CpM of course is suing the election authorities, so maybe they will be let in, who knows.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/30/actualidad/1556652352_178997.html

They are apparently also suing for the general election results, claiming that there was fraud. Just like Vox (who has also been making some noise about fraud), I expect their lawsuit to go nowhere.

[Former President tack50]

Which area are strongholds of CC in Canaries? BNG used to be "promising" in Galicia, but it has nowadays medicore support. Is that due the PODEMOS.

Well, first of all, here are the results of the 2015 regional election as a start (with the map shamelessly stolen from Velasco)



CC's strongest support is in the island of El Hierro (in fact, I'm surprised they did not keep their Senator there!). Technically CC doesn't run there, but AHI (Agrupación Herreña Independiente); though by all intents and purposes AHI may as well be part of CC, that's only a technicality. However, el Hierro is tiny, so they need more votes.

CC also gets a lot of support from Tenerife, particularly rural areas in Tenerife. They also get strong support in Fuerteventura and some parts of La Palma.

Their weakest support by contrast is located in La Gomera (which is the personal fiefdom of Casimiro Curbelo, the local cacique) and Gran Canaria (CC is seen as the "party of Tenerife" and NC as the "party of Gran Canaria" to some extent). Las Palmas de Gran Canaria in particular (the largest city in the islands) is a black hole for CC where they get horrible results.

As for other parties, PSOE gets very spread out resultsm (with southern Tenerife, a touristy area, being their best result?). PP gets its best results in rural Gran Canaria and to a lesser extent La Palma. NCa gets its best results in the GC-1 corridor in Gran Canaria. Podemos gets its best results in Las Palmas city. I imagine Cs gets its best results in comfy upper middle class suburban areas in Las Palmas. And of course ASG gets its entire support from La Gomera for obvious reasons.

As for BNG, they have gone up, but as you say Podemos stole a lot of their votes. However infighting between En Marea and Podemos proper in Galicia has allowed BNG to go up and get most of the nationalist voters that used to support Podemos in Galicia.

Have the canarians said anything?

As Velasco said, they have said they don't want deals with Vox, Podemos or the secessionists (I imagine their ideal government would be PSOE-Cs with them as kingmakers).

However, I imagine much of their strategy will also depend on the results of the regional election.

If the Canary Islands elect a PSOE led government, they will provably not support Sánchez and go full opposition. If CC does form a government again though; especially if it's a CC-PSOE government, they will probably support Sánchez or at least abstain.

[Former President tack50]

Also, Sociométrica released some interesting data regarding the gender composition of both parties.

In general, PSOE and PP (the old 2 party system) get better results among women. Cs gets slightly better results among men but is the closest to a 50-50 split. And Podemos and Vox get their support overwhelmingly from men.

I guess men are just more extremist and women are moderate heroines? Also I wonder if the fact that PP and PSOE lead among women while the "new parties" lead among men is somehow a function of age (with women living longer and being generally older; as old voters do clearly show a preference for PP-PSOE)

[Former President tack50]

I looked at the polls for the canarian elections ans I guess the likeliest result right now would be some kind of Canarian-PSOE-the other center left party coalition?

Well, we haven't had a proper poll since May 2018 so who knows. Even if you want to count the Electopanel (which mind you is not a proper poll!) that one is still before the general election and actually predicted a tiny right wing majority: 34-36

We will at the very least get more Electopaneles, but those are not proper polls. CIS also releases one poll for regional elections, and we might also get a proper private poll by one of the 2 largest newspapers (Canarias7 or La Provincia+La Opinión de Tenerife).

Either way, the race will be incredibly tight. And it looks like any left wing majority will be dependent on ASG, the party of Casimiro Curbelo, which is not exactly 100% reliable (though I guess he will support the left if you bribe him invest enough in La Gomera)

The general election didn't clear up much as PSOE and UP did go up by a lot, but NCa collapsed and CC also went up by a lot. Finally Vox didn't really get a good result.

My predictions for government formation:

If PSOE-UP-NCa-ASG get a majority, that will be the government that gets formed

If CC-PP-Cs get a majority, that will be the government that gets formed

If the 2 blocs are tied or the right wins but depends on Vox (remember CC can't really do deals with Vox), then a PSOE-CC grand coalition gets formed, maybe dependent on ASG, NCa or Cs if they are in a minority. At that point whoever gets the most seats will be the next premier (with CC benefiting a lot from the electoral system).

[Former President tack50]

Also, I will do an analysis of the regional elections in each community. This is all personal opinion and based quite a bit on the results of the general election (albeit taking into account dual voting / split ballots). Here it goes:

Asturias: Asturias seems to have remained a region with a small, but consistent left wing advantage. As of now, it is the only region with no peripheral nationalist sentiment to actually lean left (even Andalucía is very slightly right of center now!). The incumbent government seems to be decently popular and the premier is retiring. Overall, things look good for the left, but a surprise win by the right is definitely a possibility.

Rating: Lean PSOE

Cantabria: Against all odds, the left actually won the general election here (with a similar margin to Asturias), in a community that has traditionally been very right wing! A lot of it comes from PRC getting a lot of support and even a seat in Congress. The incumbent premier, Miguel Ángel Revilla, is quite populist but also popular. Barring a major surprise, Revilla seems extremely likely to remain premier.

Rating: Likely PRC

Castille-Leon: Rural and deeply conservative, those are the best ingredients for PP. If they can't win here, they aren't winning anywhere. So unless you believe PP will implode in an spectacular fashion, they will keep this. Cs is not close enough to challenge PP. The only way I can see them somehow losing is with a PSOE-Cs deal, but I don't think that is likely even if PSOE tops the poll. Plus I think Castille-Leon's PSOE isn't exactly the most moderate in the country.

Rating: Safe PP

La Rioja: In one of the surprises of the night, the left kept La Rioja semi-competitive (within 10 points). However that's still nowhere near enough for a left wing government. A PSOE-Cs deal here seems more likely than in Castille-Leon (even if again La Rioja's PSOE isn't the most moderate), especially with the tighter margins, but is still not the most likely thing. Similarly, PP is still way ahead of Cs so no chance of Cs beating PP either.

Rating: Likely PP

Navarra: The general election gave huge support to the left. UPN/NA+ seems very likely to keep going down and PSOE will go up. It seems likely that the nationalists+Podemos will keep their majority. Bildu was close to beating GBai in 2015, and while I think the difference will be small again I don't think that will happen. Barkos will probably, but not certainly, be reelected premier

Rating: Likely GBai

Aragón: The general election gave a victory to the right here. Not an overwhelming one, but a decent enough one. The main issue here is that I most definitely don't see Lambán somehow overperforming compared to Sánchez, unlike other premiers elsewhere. That means that the already narrow left wing majority will be toast. Cs actually beat PP here surprisingly. A right wing government would be dependent on both PAR (a regionalist right wing party) and Vox, but I think Cs won't have any trouble getting the support of both. And with a chance of forming government, I doubt they would instead go with a PSOE-Cs-PAR coalition even if Lambán is one of the biggest PSOE moderates.

Rating: Lean Cs

Balearic Islands: The general election gave an extremely small victory to the left here. The bad news is that Armengol isn't exactly popular or a moderate (in fact she is the most left wing PSOE premier and the only one that supported Sánchez in the primaries). The good news for her is that the regionalist PI will never ever support a government that needs Vox and it seems unlikely that PP-Cs-Vox can get a majority by themselves (even with PI it is far from guaranteed!). Plus in the Balearics there have already been "everyone against PP" coalitions back in the day so this wouldn't be a surprise.

Rating: Likely PSOE

Madrid: In a surprising twist, the left actually did quite well here in the general election even if they still lost. Plus Gabilondo and Errejón are stronger candidates than the ones from PP. However it does seem very likely that the right will hold a majority regardless. Cs beat PP here, so Cs is certainly favoured. However, they will have the uncomfortable fact of having to deal with Vox, but I think they will go for it regardless.

Rating: Lean Cs

Castille-La Mancha: The general election gave a large right wing victory here, but that has already been a thing since the Aznar era. It's just that PSOE in this community has always been able to overperform by a lot. García-Page is also a big moderate. Cs was close-ish to PP here, but I think PP would manage to still beat them. If there's a place where PSOE-Cs will form, it's here, and I think that is the most likely outcome. However, if both Podemos and Vox manage to get screwed by the electoral system I think Cs will support PP, but that's an unlikely possibility

Rating: Tilt PSOE

Extremadura: The general election gave a small right wing victory here. Again, just like Castille-La Mancha, PSOE has been able to overperform. The sociology here is extremely similar to Andalucía in fact, to the point where neither region had had a right wing parliament ever. Though Extremadura did see a PP minority government propped up by IU of all things back in 2011. Either way, the right has a chance to break that spell and get a majority, but it's not guaranteed. There's also the fact that Fernández Vara is a moderate as well. So a PSOE-Cs coalition is likely. Cs was even closer to PP here, but again I don't think a sorpasso is happening. With this in mind, Fernández Vara is favoured, though he is still by no means a lock

Rating: Lean PSOE

Murcia: Ah Murcia. The single most right wing region in Spain, even more so than deep Castille. PSOE narrowly won the popular vote in the general election surprisingly, and PP came in second. Cs third and a strong Vox in fourth. Unlike Extremadura or Castille-La Mancha, I think a sorpasso here is more likely, but not a guarantee. A left wing government or PSOE-Cs are both out of the question. And with PP favoured to win in the right, they are favoured to remain premier overall.

Rating: Lean PP

Canary Islands: Looking at the general election, it seems the right did manage to eke out an extremely narrow win here, but of course with the f* up electoral system, any similarities between the popular vote and the parliament results are pure coincidence. CC also had a phenomenal result, so it's very unclear whether CC will keep going or the left will finally be able to take them down. I still think it's slightly more likely that PSOE will win, and the left can easily get a coalition done while CC and Vox are incompatible. So overall PSOE is favoured, but an upset can happen

Rating: Lean PSOE

Ceuta: This is the only place where of the 3 right wing parties Vox came out on top. With Podemos being nearly non-existent here, the muslim parties being very divided and Ceuta's overall lean, it seems very likely that the right will hold a majority. While Vox is favoured, PP is still within striking distance and there's always the possibility of Cs trying to force some sort of PSOE-Cs government with support from the muslim local parties. That is unlikely, but far from impossible

Rating: Tilt Vox

Melilla: Turns out CpM, the party that had everyone surprised during election night, is actually allowed to run after all. That is bad news for the right, though Melilla still has a large enough right wing tilt to make them hold a majority. PP also beat Vox here so they are favoured to hold this, but the margin will be narrow. Again if they lose this it will be in favour of Vox.

Rating: Lean PP

[Former President tack50]

Massive polling dump from the CIS pollster. They were surprisingly accurate in the general election even if they were thought to have a big PSOE bias. In any case, here they go:

http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2019/Documentacion_3245-PreEAMPE19.html

Regional elections

Madrid



Murcia



Castille-Leon



Canary Islands



Castille-La Mancha



Aragon



Extremadura



Balearic Islands



Asturias



Cantabria



Navarra

NA+: 30.2% (16-17)
PSOE: 21.2% (11-12)
EH Bildu: 14.1% (7-8)
GBai: 14.0% (7-9)
Podemos: 10.8% (6)
IU: 4.4% (1-2)
PACMA: 1.5% (0)
Others: 2.4%

La Rioja



EU Elections



Here you can check the full results: https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/3635423/0/encuesta-cis-elecciones-autonomicas-municipales-europeas-26-mayo/

They also did local election polls for the largest cities (Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Seville and Zaragoza)


I personally believe CIS has gone back and is now giving massive landslides to the left. However, if true these would be devastating results for the Spanish right. Not only do they not make any gains whatsoever but actually lose several regions they've controlled since the end of the González era like Madrid, Canary Islands (CC) and La Rioja.

Castille-Leon of all places would be no better than a tossup! They would only be able to safely hold Murcia, with Castille-Leon leaning right (but being nowhere near safe) and La Rioja depending on whatever the regional PR+ does (I expect them to side with the left).

In particular these would be great results for PSOE; decent for PP and Podemos and very bad for Cs and especially Vox.

I certainly don't expect the right to lose Madrid; and I definitely expect the left to lose at the very least Aragon. I could be wrong, but this poll seems too good to be true, and it probably is

[Former President tack50]

When do all these regional elections take place?

Also, can anyone explain why Murcia is so rightwing? Seems like a bit of a conservative island in an area that mostly skews left and that was a republican stronghold during the civil war

The regional/local elections take place on the 26th of May, same day as the EU elections

Massive polling dump from the CIS pollster. They were surprisingly accurate in the general election even if they were thought to have a big PSOE bias. In any case, here they go:

Could PSOE use the regional results to get an agreement with Bildu or Canaris?

No. If anything, the opposite would actually be the case. These poll results would allow PSOE to rule the Canaries with UP and NCa (without CC) and in Navarra they could either get in government themselves (supported by GBai, Podemos and IU) or support a NA+ government. The former would be much more likely in my opinion.

Massive polling dump from the CIS pollster. They were surprisingly accurate in the general election even if they were thought to have a big PSOE bias. In any case, here they go:

Why do you say it's a polling dump? The CIS was more spotted on than the rest of pollsters predicting the general election results. Maybe this poll looks a bit optimistic for the left and the appointment of a PSOE member at the head was not a good idea, but I think such comments are disrespectful with the professionals of the sociological institute.

I said it's a dump not intrying to say the polls are bad, but just saying there are a lot of them.

As for CIS, I simply view this as "too good to be true". As I've said, there's no reason whatsoever to believe Madrid will have a left wing majority or that Castille-Leon! would be even remotely close. On their defense, their EU poll does indeed look very reasonable though.

[Former President tack50]

Any news about bildu?

If you are looking for government formation news, there are none, and won't be until after the regional/EU elections.

Sánchez doesn't seem all that eager to negotiate with ERC and Bildu so I guess he will just gamble on daring them (and JxCat) to vote against him.

It's easy to see Bildu/ERC caving and abstaining (which would give Sánchez a narrow majority on the 2nd ballot) but of course you then have to wonder how will he be able to pass a budget.

Another thing that has to be brought into the equation is the Basque regional elections. In theory they aren't due until Autumn 2020. However it's easy to see a snap Basque election happening this Autumn or Winter. Premier Urkullu has been unable to pass regional budgets, with Podemos, Bildu and PP voting them down in the regional parliament.

It's just a rumour at this point, but since Sánchez will depend 100% on PNV and possibly on Bildu, it's another thing to add into the equation. As if the regional elections weren't enough.

Galicia is also due for regional elections in 2020 but unlike the Basques Feijoo is certain not to call a snap election, especially because of the bad results for the right in Galicia. Feijoo will certainly overperform, but I think he will carry out a full term, especially since he has an overall majority after all, while next term he will be dependent on Cs, Vox or possibly both.

[Former President tack50]

So as of now, what is the likeliest coalition for a budget to pass?

As of now, considering what happened between PSOE and ERC right this week, I think all bridges between the 2 (and Bildu and JxCat) are burnt.

This week, PSOE appointed the leader of their Catalan Branch (Miquel Iceta) as appointed Senator for Catalonia, with the intention of making him the Senate president.

In an unprecedented vote in Spain's democratic history, the Catalan parliament rejected Iceta's appointment as Senator with the votes of ERC, CUP and JxCat (the secessionist parties), with Cs and PP abstaining and Podemos and PSC voting in favor. ERC still claims dialog can continue but honestly if they can't even allow PSOE to appoint a senator, how on Earth are they going to support his budget or his confidence vote?!

There is also another factor, which is the fact that 4 of the Catalan politicians in jail are now duly elected MPs. If none of them, or only one, resign their seats, that means Spain's parliament will only have 346-347 MPs, with the majority going down to 174.

As a reminder, PSOE+UP+"reasonable" regional parties (PNV, PRC, Compromís) are at 173 while PP+Cs+Vox+Secessionists are at 169 once you take out the 4 MPs in jail.

At that point, the kingmakers would be CC and UPN. Neither of them seem happy with supporting a Sánchez government, but they both have things they can get from PSOE and are at least willing to talk I think (which is more than can be said from the Catalans). If Podemos ends up as part the government (with cabinet ministers and all) they will vote against, but they might at least abstain on a PSOE minority government.

From a tactical point of view in particular UPN might be easy to get, as it would be a fairly simple exchange (PSOE supports UPN in Navarra and in Pamplona's mayor race if their numbers add up and UPN does the same in reverse for Sánchez). However that deal involves ousting GBai from the regional government (which is PNV's branch in Navarra, sort of); and it might piss off PNV. While I can't see PNV forcing Spain into a 2nd election, they would definitely be angry

CC is harder to get as PSOE has less to offer to them and while a PSOE-CC deal in the islands wouldn't be something weird; it would still likely involve ousting premier Clavijo and getting a PSOE premier as PSOE seems likely to beat CC in both seat count and votes. However CC is easier to get on paper (they didn't contest the election with PP and Cs; unlike UPN) and would not piss off PNV.

Either way, CC and UPN are the likely kingmakers in my opinion right now; and not ERC/Bildu/JxCat. If no one caves, Spain will end up in another election (yay  )