UK Opinion Polls Thread

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The SNP take a 9% lead over Labour for Westminister.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3958

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The SNP take a 9% lead over Labour for Westminister.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3958

Expected. The SNP lead Labour in most polls in Scotland between 2007 and the start of the GE campaign. I expect them to do so again, to a greater extent...until the next GE

Counting Scotland votes to stay in the Union.

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Most accurate pollster has LibDems plunging following conference, LOL.

38 (+2)
37 (nc)
14 (-3)

Ed's approvals are horrific, mind. Worse than Clegg's.

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Posted simply because it's... er... different.

Sort've shows how the Cameroons aren't New Labour and Labour in 2011 isn't the Tories in 1998...

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Pretty damning numbers on Ed's leadership in the Sunday Times/YouGov this week.
http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-st-results-23-250911.pdf

"Best leader of the Labour Party":
30% - David Miliband
9% - Ed Miliband
8% - Ed Balls
6% - Harriet Harman
2% - Yvette Cooper

Also, a plurality see Ed as a Robin Reliant, if the leaders were cars.

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That is an ICM poll, right? Checking wikipedia, no other pollster had the LDems so high and Labour so low sfor month.

Yeah ICM tends to consistently state by far the highest Lib Dem support, most of it's accounted for their presumption that 50% of Don't Knows will go back to their former party - which always helps government parties, but especially so when they've disillusioned large swathes of their support like the Lib Dems have done - but even then, there's about 2% either way.

I find it's worth checking the tables to see the figures before the adjustments, in any case.

An interesting poll recently by Yougov on regional representation [tables here] -
"How well or badly do you think the x party represents and understands voters in..." (Good - Neither - Bad - D/K)

Tory;

Scotland North Wales Midlands South

10% | 17% | 52% | 21% 12% | 18% | 52% | 18% 11% | 22% | 45% | 22% 21% | 22% | 37% | 20% 46% | 16% | 22% | 16%

Toxic.

They can't go on ignoring massive swathes of the country (*cough* Scotland) if they want a majority.

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This is getting silly now, Tories take a 5 point lead with YouGov.
41, 36, 9

Does anyone, inside or outside the party, still support Ed? He needs to go.

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http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

Electoral Calculus have changed their UNS calculator to include the new boundaries.

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As we're spoilt for choice recently I thought I'd dig this up.

So, firstly, polling in Lib Dem seats and closely fought targets done by Yougov;

Firstly, vote share in 2010: Lib 41%, Con 32%, Lab 19%
Vote share now: Lab 34% (+15%), Con 29% (-3%), Lib 15% (-26%)
Vote share when those polled above are reminded to think about their own constituency and incumbent (measuring tactical voting): Lab 31% (+12%), Con 28% (-4%), Lib 24% (-17%)

Mayoral vote by Yougov:
Boris 45% (-4%), Ken 40% (-1%), Paddick 7% (+2%), Other 8% (+4%)
Also an Assembly VI done in the same poll;
Constituency: Lab 44%, Con 35%, Lib 11%, Oth 10%
List: Lab 46%, Con 35%, Lib 9%, UKIP 5%, Grn 3%, BNP 1%

Finally, tonight's polls:
Yougov: Lab 43% (+4%), Con 32% (-1%), Lib 8% (-2%), Oth (including UKIP 9%(!!!)) 17% (n/c)
Populus: Lab 42% (+4%), Con 33% (-1%), Lib 11% (n/c), Oth 14% (-2%)
TNSBMRB: Lab 42% (+4%), Con 32% (-3%), Lib 10% (-1%), Oth 16% (n/c)

A mirage of consistency, there.

I don't know what's the funniest part of that. UKIP in 3rd? The fact that the LibDems would still be down to 7 seats even with the "own constituency" question? The Tory's rock hard support base of 36% ebbing away to Hague/Howard levels? Ken being such a crap candidate that he's trailing the party by a (quite frankly) stupid amount against an idiot like Boris?

If the Locals reflect the polls (they won't), gains'll be getting to a stupidly high number.

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2 questions:

How likely is Clegg to lose his own seat (Sheffield Hallam) with the current numbers?

Is the UKIP surge temporary (anger over the budget) or lasting?

The UKIP surge's being driven by various things: them being the only protest party with the Libs being in government (and loathed), Cameron not being anti-Europe as many Tories'd love him to be, the crisis in Europe, all 3 leaders collectively being the most hated trio (apparently) since polls began. It's definitely a very flakey mound of support, they collapsed back to 3-4% after Cameron's veto in December.

As Hallam exists now, Clegg'd just hold on (probably), but it'd be hard to tell how much the 2010-Cleggasm has receeded there (meaning, it could be worse or not as bad as the rest of the nation). The problem for Clegg with Sheffield though is that it's a mix of the exact group who've swung against the Liberals the hardest - students (there's two massive universities within a 5 minute drive of eachother). Come 2015, there'll be no student in Sheffield who hasn't seen that photo.

And if the new boundaries go through Sheffield West & Penistone, as it'd become, would be much less friendly to Nick Clegg.

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If UKIP are tying or ahead of the Libs in 2015, I wonder if Farage'll be in the debates...

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No matter who wins, 2015 will be a realignment due to the collapse of the Liberals. On election night, when Dimbleby goes on about "there might be very different patterns of voting around different parts of the country", he'll actually mean it in a noticable sense this time.

There'll be some bizarre swings and bizarre seats changing hands I imagine, certainly in Scotland where they certainly gave Gordon Brown a favourite son vote in 2010 and the SNP (rather than Labour) have been scooping up the former Liberal voters ever since.

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Angus Reid seems to have a disliking for whoever the (main) governing party is.

Nothing funnier than Mike Smithson at PB.com taking them as gospel before the last election. Egg on face.

The thought of Dave leading his party to sub-Major/Hague levels of support is nice though.

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UKIP still in 3rd 41-32-9-8
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/9vd7805h01/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-170412.pdf

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Ed narrows the PPM gap:
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/so7z2ce31t/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-180412.pdf

31 (+1)
22 (+3)
5 (nc)
undecided - 42 (-4)

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Shouldn't they put Farage in that poll now?

One would think, but it'd mess up comparisons with past polls.

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Shouldn't they put Farage in that poll now?

One would think, but it'd mess up comparisons with past polls.

He'd definitely poll above Clegg, and would probably have an outside chance of making second...

He'd probably tie with Clegg and he'd be nowhere near second. Barely anyone know who Nigel Farage is would only be a minor reason for that.

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Presumably a bit of an outlier, but tonight's YouGov has Labour on 45%, 13 points ahead of the Tories.  Lib Dem retention is down to 29% (there's going to be a large margin of error on that, though).

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/21o4h4zdaz/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-190412.pdf

But Ed's not doing well enough.

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Labour take an 8% lead with ICM (!!!!)!

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/5223

Political Betting must be in uproar, given the gold standard's getting YouGov style leads.

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YouGov.

40-29-10-10

29! Never thought i'd see the day.

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http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/bkmm9p70rl/YG-Archives-Pol-SundayTimes-results-27-290412.pdf

Diabolical numbers for the blues in there. This double-dip's done them no good, obviously. The gap on net approvals between Cam/Mili has narrowed from a 23% "lead" for Dave, to just 7%. Ed'll soon be the least hated. Peter Kellner saying that only comparable collapse was for Gordon Brown when he flunked the election that never was.

32% blame the Tory-Liberal cuts, compared to 17% who blame Brown Labour. Stick a fork in them, they're done.

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http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/aial8f44t2/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-010512.pdf

1.5% swing to the Tories in 15 years.

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Any Scotland/Wales poll which has such a disapparity between constituency and regional can surely be written off, right?

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This weekend's YouGov, not much of it was taken after the election results.

43 - 31 - 9 (UKIP on 8%)

David Cameron approval (his lowest yet)
31 (-1) / 62 (-1)

Ed Miliband approval
27 (nc) / 60 (-5)

Nick Clegg (his lowest too)
17 (-3) / 74 (+1)

Gets worrying for Dave if Ed Miliband starts looking like the least ugly sister, right?

Labour've also taken the lead on the "Which would you prefer to see after the next election?" question, last asked in January.
A Tory government led by David Cameron 36 (-5)
A Labour government led by Ed Miliband 42 (+8)

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How come Milliband's approvals are so crap?

He's hasn't got a good raport with the public and there's still hate towards the last government. We're very much in "plague on all your houses" territory.