CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Zaybay]

36% is a start. We have 6 years to build on it and mount a more serious challenge. Let's get to it.

Well, Lively also got 36% in Massachusetts. I doubt that 4 years from now he will get more... BTW - Delaware is NOT very liberal state. Mostly Democratic - yes, but it's Democrats are, usually, of moderate-liberal (sometimes - even left-center) variety. Even John Biden wasn't a firebrand.... And the most rapidly growing county in the state, IIRC, is conservative Sussex.

Both of these accounts are wrong. Lively got 36% as he was a protest vote to the moderate Baker. The trend of the MA electorate is one of Trump Conservatism, so, theoretically, if he were to run against Baker again in 2022, its entirely likely that he would garner a larger percentage of the vote.

And about DE, while its federal delegation are rather moderate, the state legislature is rather Progressive. The problem for DE is that many of its officeholders like to stay in office, so you have people who still think its the 1980s in terms of politics(Biden, Carper) staying in power. While DE does identify as more moderate than, say, HI, MA, or CT, its still as able to elect progressives as any of the previous states.

Wrong on both points. While Massachusetts Republican party becomes more conservative, i am absolutely sure that Lively will NOT get 36% next time. As a minimum - because there will be more serious conservative (though not as conservative as Lively) Republican candidate.

And Delaware elects Carney, Coons, Carper and their like. It "CAN" elect progressive, but absolutely not "MUST". As a rule - it's these "pragmatic moderates" (or even a centrists), who occupies main offices in this state. Even yestedray - more pragmatic candidates won for Auditor and some other offices. We don't speak here about who will be elected in Delaware SD-01, we speak about whole state. And Sussex really grows the most. So, NEw Castle county (the most liberal by far) may become somewhat lee important decade from now..

You misunderstand my first point. If, in a hypothetical scenario, Baker were to go against Lively again in 2022, then Lively would get a larger percentage of the vote. Of course, there are multiple factors, Baker running again, Lively running again, that make this scenario unlikely, but in the envent it does occur, Lively would improve. My point about the MAGOP is valid, that its going down the Trumpian route.

And to the second point, its true, they can elect progressives, and they did go with a more moderate slate in the senate and auditor. Their AG is a standard liberal, though closer to the progressives than the moderates. But that doesnt make them incapable of voting for Progressives. If you notice the people serving in DE, much of them are in their 60s, 70s, they have served in DE for a long time. While they have name recognition, and a rather safe position, there is no pragmatic centrist to replace them. This was the same case in CA. The state had very moderate senators and house members. But as many of them retired, the state reps, state senators, and other much more progressive Democrats took the seats by storm. Kamala Harris replaced one of the most moderate senators in the D caucus, and now shes a firebreathing progressive. If Feinstein had retired, the same would have happened.

And your point about county growth really has nothing to do with anything as we dont know who the voters moving there are, the trend of the county, and other factors. Saying that Maricopa county growing in AZ will keep the state R ignore the D trend it has. Who knows, Sussex may become a blue county.

[smoltchanov]

^ Kamala Harris replaced Barbara Boxer - one of the most progressive Senators))) That alone cast doubts on your "arguments". About other matters - first, i am not sure, that Lively will get better percentage in 2024 in 1-to-1 race against Baker. Second - i am not sure, that Massachusetts Republican party will neccessary go Trumpian road by then (in fact i am not even sure that national Republican party will go that route after 2020), and third  - i wouldn't call Lisa Rochester, for example, a "firebrand progressive". Fourth - California has more, then enough moderates on high positions even now: Costa, Bera. Correa, Peters, Garamendi, and so on. In fact even Newsom, while undoubtely social liberal, is not so radical on economy...

As usual in such "discussions" - no one will convince no one. Neither you me, nor i you. Let's simply hope we all will live in 2024 and continue our argumentation THEN...

[Zaybay]

^ Kamala Harris replaced Barbara Boxer - one of the most progressive Senators))) That alone cast doubts on your "arguments". About other matters - first, i am not sure, that Lively will get better percentage in 2024 in 1-to-1 race against Baker. Second - i am not sure, that Massachusetts Republican party will neccessary go Trumpian road by then (in fact i am not even sure that national Republican party will go that route after 2020), and third  - i wouldn't call Lisa Rochester, for example, a "firebrand progressive". Fourth - California has more, then enough moderates on high positions even now: Costa, Bera. Correa, Peters, Garamendi, and so on. In fact even Newsom, while undoubtely social liberal, is not so radical on economy...

As usual in such "discussions" - no one will convince no one. Neither you me, nor i you. Let's simply hope we all will live in 2024 and continue our argumentation THEN...

Fair is fair.  But I would like to make a closing remark.

The website I was using gave her a moderate rating, but, cross referencing with others, it does seem like she was a Liberal senator. Harris is much more progressive than her, mind you, but it was not a monumental shift.

It is incredibly likely that the MAGOP goes down the Trump path. While the legislators and higher ups will probably stay more moderate, the actual voters, probably not. There has been a multitude in attitude changes in the R camp in MA, actually stemming from 2010, 2016 just pushed them even farther. Its noteworthy that the most popular governor of the USA, with a moderately high approval from Rs, would do worse than Phil Scott, who suffered from a gun bill scandal that made Rs lukewarm to him.

And about CA, while they still have moderates(so does MA, RI, HI, and other Blue states), many of them are being replaced by more Left Wingers, and their majority in the 2000s has gone to an influential, but small block. I mean, look at the governor shift. Brown was a social liberal, but fiscally conservative, and Newsom is a Progressive socially, and fiscally centrist, but leaning towards the left. The likely LT of the state, who yields a good amount of influence, wants Single Payer on the state level. This is the dam breaking that will probably happen in DE, once the old guard moves aside, or loses, suddenly, everything shifts. It happened in ME, it happened in MA(with two of Baker's closest D allies and high members in the legislature losing to Progressives), it happened in MD(where two Consrevadems who blocked increasing voting rights lost), and it will most likely come to DE.

[smoltchanov]

^ Well, i would like to make shorter closing remark too: we shall see. All states and conditions in them are different (i look now at rating of Alabama's congressmen in FDR time,  and continue to be modestly surprized: how progressive on purely economic issues many of them were. But then - civil rights issue came to the fore, and Alabama began a long drift to the right - first among Democratic representatives, and then - to Republicans). Again - let's hope that we all be alive and have material for discussions and disagreements too..

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We're heading for a recount in MA-3 D: https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2018/09/07/dan-koh-lori-trahan-3rd-district-recount

[Zaybay]

We're heading for a recount in MA-3 D: https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2018/09/07/dan-koh-lori-trahan-3rd-district-recount

I think I want Koh to win, but Im not really sure

[Strong Candidate]

We're heading for a recount in MA-3 D: https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2018/09/07/dan-koh-lori-trahan-3rd-district-recount

I think I want Koh to win, but Im not really sure

Trahan is more moderate, but Koh is a machine hack, so it's a case of which you prefer.

[Brittain33]

Excellent precinct map of MA-7 in this article. Scroll down.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/09/07/somerville-changing-and-are-its-voters-just-ask-ayanna-pressley/fbwXyuAGpTJIs2yTE93Y3M/story.html?s_campaign=breakingnews:newsletter

[Zaybay]

We're heading for a recount in MA-3 D: https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2018/09/07/dan-koh-lori-trahan-3rd-district-recount

I think I want Koh to win, but Im not really sure

Trahan is more moderate, but Koh is a machine hack, so it's a case of which you prefer.

Im fine with machines, as long as they put up good candidates. MA has a rather good machine, while NY and IL dont. I guess Im for Koh!

[Doimper]

We're heading for a recount in MA-3 D: https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2018/09/07/dan-koh-lori-trahan-3rd-district-recount

I think I want Koh to win, but Im not really sure

Trahan is more moderate, but Koh is a machine hack, so it's a case of which you prefer.

There are worse machines to be a hack for than Marty Walsh's.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We're heading for a recount in MA-3 D: https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2018/09/07/dan-koh-lori-trahan-3rd-district-recount

I think I want Koh to win, but Im not really sure

Trahan is more moderate, but Koh is a machine hack, so it's a case of which you prefer.

What specific issues is Koh to Trahan's left on?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not a surprise but still awful.

Whatever. Delaware is a stupid State that shouldn't even exist.

Who should take them? Maryland or New Jersey?

Maryland would be the aesthetically rational choice, but I'm willing to hear arguments for PA and NJ.

Actually, yeah let's give them to Pennsylvania. They might make the state more Democratic. Or we can give them New Castle and dilute Kent and Sussex by giving them to Maryland.

[Donerail]

What specific issues is Koh to Trahan's left on?

M4A, free public college (he supports both, she opposes both).

[Antonio the Sixth]

What specific issues is Koh to Trahan's left on?

M4A, free public college (he supports both, she opposes both).

OK yeah, Koh is the obvious choice.

[junior chįmp]

Cant wait to see the IDC crushed next week

https://mobile.twitter.com/Taniel/status/1038463306061754368

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cant wait to see the IDC crushed next week

https://mobile.twitter.com/Taniel/status/1038463306061754368

please please please please

[Tekken_Guy]

Cant wait to see the IDC crushed next week

https://mobile.twitter.com/Taniel/status/1038463306061754368

What about Felder?

[junior chįmp]

^
Felder will win and get re-elected in Nov.

But it wont matter as the state Senate will flip real Dem

[Zaybay]

Im glad to see the traitors are being primaried, and the likely replacements being on the Left of the party. If I were to make a prediction, I would say that 4 go down, with 2 tossups, and 2 leaning towards the incumbent.

[Adam Griffin]

Anybody know where to find turnout figures by primary/candidate for DE precincts besides the State Board of Elections? Their formatting is kind of garbage and I'd have to completely redo the spreadsheet to tabulate D/R totals by ED...was wanting to make a map but not if it takes that much work.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Im glad to see the traitors are being primaried, and the likely replacements being on the Left of the party. If I were to make a prediction, I would say that 4 go down, with 2 tossups, and 2 leaning towards the incumbent.

I'm predicting all but Carlucci get replaced next week. The anti-IDC fight seems to be the biggest fight the left has taken up in NY.

[smoltchanov]

Im glad to see the traitors are being primaried, and the likely replacements being on the Left of the party. If I were to make a prediction, I would say that 4 go down, with 2 tossups, and 2 leaning towards the incumbent.

I'm predicting all but Carlucci get replaced next week. The anti-IDC fight seems to be the biggest fight the left has taken up in NY.

I doubt it very much. IMHO - at least half of them (plus Felder) survives..

[Zaybay]

Im glad to see the traitors are being primaried, and the likely replacements being on the Left of the party. If I were to make a prediction, I would say that 4 go down, with 2 tossups, and 2 leaning towards the incumbent.

I'm predicting all but Carlucci get replaced next week. The anti-IDC fight seems to be the biggest fight the left has taken up in NY.

I doubt it very much. IMHO - at least half of them (plus Felder) survives..

Doubt it, most are trailing in fundraising, and their approvals have crashed. Not to mention NY has only respective party members voting in primaries, so no moderate indies(or Left wing indies) are able to vote

[smoltchanov]

Im glad to see the traitors are being primaried, and the likely replacements being on the Left of the party. If I were to make a prediction, I would say that 4 go down, with 2 tossups, and 2 leaning towards the incumbent.

I'm predicting all but Carlucci get replaced next week. The anti-IDC fight seems to be the biggest fight the left has taken up in NY.

I doubt it very much. IMHO - at least half of them (plus Felder) survives..

Doubt it, most are trailing in fundraising, and their approvals have crashed. Not to mention NY has only respective party members voting in primaries, so no moderate indies(or Left wing indies) are able to vote

We will see very soon (less then a week from now). For now i have reasons to doubt.

[Strudelcutie4427]

I just voted for Chief Eddie Edwards. Good luck to him and to whoever wins. I have no idea what’s going down on the Dems side though