CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Brittain33]

Let's get back on topic. Thanks.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks, Brittain! You are right as in most cases. Though, with primary season being over, this thread may be reasonably locked in some future - we have little to discuss between now and GE: mostly only polls and spending numbers.

[Brittain33]

I remember when Peter Valesky was elected as a reformist in the start of the backlash to George W. Bush.

[smoltchanov]

I remember when Peter Valesky was elected as a reformist in the start of the backlash to George W. Bush.

He WAS a reformist. But - pragmatically moderate reformist, rather then radical. Back then it wasn't neccessary to belong to radical faction to be one. May be it's because polarization was much lower...

[ag]

Oh ffs, cut it out you two. This is a stupid debate that's going nowhere.

Which debate? I thought this was a friendly discussion of NY politics. Or has this place changed to the point where any disagreement on any matter is prohibited? Is one now only supposed to say things like "thank you very much for a profound and thoughtful argument you have provided"? I am trying to give this place another chance, but, it seems, at this point, anything beyond trivialities an pablum is frowned upon here.

No, hes right, this has gone no where from where we started. There is no point in arguing with someone who fundamentally wont listen.

I listen and take note

[Pyro]

The MSM narrative from the primary are basically exemplified through this NYT headline:
"Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo brushed past Cynthia Nixon in Thursday’s Democratic contest. But other challengers benefited from the progressive fervor sweeping national politics." link

Nixon's defeat is the top story, followed by the fall of the IDC-affiliated Democrats and:
"Brooklyn Democrats Pick Socialist Over Tainted Incumbent In New York Senate Race" from Huffpost. link

Hurricane Florence remains on the top of every news site, regardless.

[Adam Griffin]

Is there anywhere that I can fetch turnout statistics by party and county for either primary (congressional or state) for NY? I didn't realize NY was one of those states that didn't put uncontested offices on the ballot (or at least it appears as such in the reporting). Even if a party doesn't have a primary/contest, surely the raw turnout of voters by party can be found somewhere?

I'm starting to think NY won't be doable for my primary turnout map since according to the State Board of Elections, there were only a couple of Senate districts' worth of GOP primaries on the ballot last night (and the situation doesn't appear much better for the congressional primary).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cuomo won, good!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there anywhere that I can fetch turnout statistics by party and county for either primary (congressional or state) for NY? I didn't realize NY was one of those states that didn't put uncontested offices on the ballot (or at least it appears as such in the reporting). Even if a party doesn't have a primary/contest, surely the raw turnout of voters by party can be found somewhere?

I'm starting to think NY won't be doable for my primary turnout map since according to the State Board of Elections, there were only a couple of Senate districts' worth of GOP primaries on the ballot last night (and the situation doesn't appear much better for the congressional primary).

Yikes, not great!

[ag]

The MSM narrative from the primary are basically exemplified through this NYT headline:
"Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo brushed past Cynthia Nixon in Thursday’s Democratic contest. But other challengers benefited from the progressive fervor sweeping national politics." link

Nixon's defeat is the top story, followed by the fall of the IDC-affiliated Democrats and:
"Brooklyn Democrats Pick Socialist Over Tainted Incumbent In New York Senate Race" from Huffpost. link

Hurricane Florence remains on the top of every news site, regardless.

And, as usual, "MSM" has all the news that's fit to print

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is there anywhere that I can fetch turnout statistics by party and county for either primary (congressional or state) for NY? I didn't realize NY was one of those states that didn't put uncontested offices on the ballot (or at least it appears as such in the reporting). Even if a party doesn't have a primary/contest, surely the raw turnout of voters by party can be found somewhere?

Nope. Even the formal certification for the June primaries doesn't have such a statistic: https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2018/FederalPrimary/2018CertifiedFederalPrimaryResult.pdf . So you can't get anything by county for Rs.

About the only thing you could do to get a statewide total for Rs is take the CD-11 R turnout (21,472) and multiply that by 27 = 579,744. For Dems you can use Gov, Lt. Gov, AG, or add up the turnout in the 13 contested Dem Congressional primaries and multiply that by 2.08.

The problem with this - and why I simply left the state as 'unmeasurable' on my senate primary map, despite my past openness to alternate calculations - is that it assumes that every part of the state actually had a republican primary, which may not in fact be the case given that there were so many uncontested races on the republican side, plus we have the fact that NY-11 is more republican than most of the state, so it is likely that 579,744 is a gross exaggeration.

For the record though, using number for Rs and the Dem Gov numbers comes out to Dems having 71% of the primary turnout, which sounds roughly accurate.

[Adam Griffin]

Is there anywhere that I can fetch turnout statistics by party and county for either primary (congressional or state) for NY? I didn't realize NY was one of those states that didn't put uncontested offices on the ballot (or at least it appears as such in the reporting). Even if a party doesn't have a primary/contest, surely the raw turnout of voters by party can be found somewhere?

Nope. Even the formal certification for the June primaries doesn't have such a statistic: https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/elections/2018/FederalPrimary/2018CertifiedFederalPrimaryResult.pdf . So you can't get anything by county for Rs.

About the only thing you could do to get a statewide total for Rs is take the CD-11 R turnout (21,472) and multiply that by 27 = 579,744. For Dems you can use Gov, Lt. Gov, AG, or add up the turnout in the 13 contested Dem Congressional primaries and multiply that by 2.08.

The problem with this - and why I simply left the state as 'unmeasurable' on my senate primary map, despite my past openness to alternate calculations - is that it assumes that every part of the state actually had a republican primary, which may not in fact be the case given that there were so many uncontested races on the republican side, plus we have the fact that NY-11 is more republican than most of the state, so it is likely that 579,744 is a gross exaggeration.

For the record though, using number for Rs and the Dem Gov numbers comes out to Dems having 71% of the primary turnout, which sounds roughly accurate.

FWIW, I just ended up going with active registered voters by county, which comprises a 69% Democratic statewide electorate.

[junior chįmp]

Cuomo helped to fund his campaign,

Source?

His top funders include Peter Rebenwurzel, Jack Kishk, and Joseph J. Sitt, who are Cuomo loyalists and contributes as well.

that isn't the same thing, is it? Are you friends with all of your friends' friends?

No, it is the same thing. They are literally Cuomo's allies, and its already been documented that they follow his orders on who to fund. But you seem to be making as many excuses as possible, so me saying this is rather pointless.

Documented where? Mind to provide a source?

My proof is that they are his main contributers, and the fact that they support every candidate he supports, which is not a coincidence. There is also a couple news articles about him meeting with these people, but Im not going to waste my time finding them, since your just going to plug your ears in.

Speaking of main contributors, there was a good article in the NY Post talking about how the landlords who kept the IDC propped up via campaign contributions are terrified of an authentic Dem Senate after November:

Landlords are terrified Democrats could take control over New York

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Beet]

If NY Dems can actually keep rents down the party would actually be good for something.

[Tintrlvr]

They reached too far. It was fine for Klein to vote against expanding rent regulation while caucusing with the Democrats.

Expanding rent regulation would be a calamitous policy for NYC and the state as a whole, too. I do think the Democrats are smart enough not to do so.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Koh concedes MA-3 D:

[Zaybay]

Koh concedes MA-3 D:

MA just got a tinge more conservative in its delegation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If NY Dems can actually keep rents down the party would actually be good for something.

[Figueira]

Koh concedes MA-3 D:

MA just got a tinge more conservative in its delegation.

Is Trahan meaningfully to the right of Tsongas?

[junior chįmp]

So much corruption lmao:

https://www.twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1041728348983119872

[nclib]

Is there an area (on Atlas or otherwise) with county maps for Gubernatorial and Senatorial primaries?

[Kodak]

Is there an area (on Atlas or otherwise) with county maps for Gubernatorial and Senatorial primaries?

Atlas has a lot of primary election results. You can find them for any specific state here.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=0&off=99&elect=0&fips=1&f=0

[nclib]

I'm aware of that, and it is missing a lot of states.

[Politician]

Koh concedes MA-3 D:

MA just got a tinge more conservative in its delegation.

Is Trahan meaningfully to the right of Tsongas?

No, but she is to the right of all the other candidates who ran in this district.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Koh concedes MA-3 D:

MA just got a tinge more conservative in its delegation.

Is Trahan meaningfully to the right of Tsongas?

No, but she is to the right of all the other candidates who ran in this district.

So nevertheless it's a very slight improvement.