DemocratsVictory2008
Rookie
Posts: 58
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« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2009, 12:36:45 AM » |
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I think Arizona would have the biggest swing, going from a 9 point McCain win to a 9-14 point Obama win. The home state factor is about 5-7% according to most data and that would have given Obama about 51-52% in Arizona had mccain not been from there. That puts it well in line with the states surrounding it. AZ is the most conservative of CO, NM, NV, AZ but not by that much as seen in 2000,2004. The demographics there suggest Democratic gains, just look at the congressional elections the past two cycles.
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