If John McCain won?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

If he had won in 2008 how do you think everything would have been now?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Probably not dissimilar in many ways - the GFC fundamentally undermined the economy and the recovery was always going to be uneven and take a while.

But I doubt the political environment would be AS toxic as it is now.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Biggest Democratic House and Senate majorities man has ever seen.

[NVGonzalez]

P4E 2012 Alternate history McCain Presidency scenario coming soon

[Reaganfan]

President McCain would have approvals in the 30s-40s, and would likely be losing to Hillary Clinton in 2012.

[Napoleon]

All I'm going to say is it is very sad how John McCain has turned into one of the Senate's biggest douchebags.

[Meeker]

I don't think this question is really answerable... a world in which John McCain was able to be elected President would be a very different world from the one Barack Obama was elected in. The ensuing administrations would've dealt with very different circumstances.

[Duke David]

If he had won in 2008 how do you think everything would have been now?

That would have been the best case for me as a Hillary supporter...

[Paul Kemp]

Being that he was tossing around the idea of only serving one term during the campaign and add in that he would probably have horrible approval numbers (possibly worse than Obama's), I'd say there would be a strong chance he wouldn't be running again in 2012.

[cavalcade]

Obviously no health insurance bill.  Obviously a smaller stimulus.  Democrats MIGHT have blocked extending the Bush tax cuts.  Bin Laden would still be dead, though McCain probably would have lobbed in a cruise missile rather than sending in the SEALS.

Unemployment would be about the same, maybe a bit higher.  Deficit projections would be a little better, especially if the Dems had forced the tax cuts to expire.  Dems would control the Senate and House.

McCain would be unpopular on the left and the right; more unpopular with the right than Obama currently is with the left.  He might not be running again.  Even if he was, someone like Bachmann would be challenging him- if it was Bachmann, she'd have won Ames assuming it was held and would be ahead of him in Iowa.  If he wasn't running, I think we'd basically have the same dynamic in the R primary, except with Palin replacing Perry in the top tier with Romney. 

Clinton would be ahead in the D primary, with Biden and a random governor (O'Malley, Patrick, Schweitzer) in the second tier, and some more people in the third tier.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

If John McCain won?

Let me stop you right there.

[Skill and Chance]

Is everything else held constant in 2008 and McCain squeaks by for a win?  Or does he win because the economic crisis never happened?

If the economy still crashes as in real life, McCain would be in a world of hurt right now.  He probably has approvals 10 points lower than Obama's (3X/6X).  A couple of potential primary challengers are making noise, but no one has jumped in.  In 2010 the Democrats became fully veto proof in Congress, winning 295 House seats and 68 Senate seats.  They use the veto override to push through a climate/green jobs bill, federally funded health insurance for the unemployed and several hiring measures. None of the Bush tax cuts are renewed.  McCain's only hope of re-election is to pin the bad economy on Congress.

If there was no 2008 crash, he probably has near 50/50 approval and is a slight favorite for re-election.  The Democrats came out of 2008 with 235 House seats and 53 Senate seats.  They probably picked up 10 more in the House and 3 more in the Senate in a fairly uneventful 2010 midterm.  The tax cuts are extended.  There might be an energy bill on pretty conservative terms.    

[pbrower2a]

Is everything else held constant in 2008 and McCain squeaks by for a win?  Or does he win because the economic crisis never happened?

If the economy still crashes as in real life, McCain would be in a world of hurt right now.  He probably has approvals 10 points lower than Obama's (3X/6X).  A couple of potential primary challengers are making noise, but no one has jumped in.  In 2010 the Democrats became fully veto proof in Congress, winning 295 House seats and 68 Senate seats.  They use the veto override to push through a climate/green jobs bill, federally funded health insurance for the unemployed and several hiring measures. None of the Bush tax cuts are renewed.  McCain's only hope of re-election is to pin the bad economy on Congress.

If there was no 2008 crash, he probably has near 50/50 approval and is a slight favorite for re-election.  The Democrats came out of 2008 with 235 House seats and 53 Senate seats.  They probably picked up 10 more in the House and 3 more in the Senate in a fairly uneventful 2010 midterm.  The tax cuts are extended.  There might be an energy bill on pretty conservative terms.    

The 2008 crash (really it began in 2007) was inevitable. No political legerdemain could have stopped the crash. Sure, President Obama did some things right in 2009 that stopped the meltdown from doing further damage; I am not sure that a President McCain would have done the same -- or anything effective.

He can get away with his behavior in the Senate, but he couldn't get away with it in the Presidency. Democrats would have the majority in both Houses of Congress... but remember who would be Vice-President. 

By 2010 he is the analogue of Herbert Hoover for half-hearted, abortive, and contradictory efforts to meet an economic meltdown that just doesn't stop. Democrats keep Senate seats in Illinois (it is Barack Obama!),  Indiana and Wisconsin, and whether Arlen Specter changes his affiliation or not, Democrats eventually get his seat by 2010. Democrats flip Senate seats in Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and have a chance to lose one only in North Dakota. they probably pick up the Senate seat in Arizona that the President vacated. By September 2011 the Dow is around 5000....

And that is if the temper-tantrums of Sarah Palin don't precipitate a fatal stroke or cardiac arrest or at least cause a failure of health that makes the 25th Amendment operative. Think about it... three very bad Presidents in succession. 

In the failure of corporate profits to remain high, the Hard Right lacks the funds with which to fund the astroturf causes that form the Hard Right of 2010.

2012 portends an electoral disaster for almost all Republicans... but maybe too late. We have a replay of the Great Depression with a populace less patient and more violent than that of the 1930s.     

[J. J.]

Obama loses the Democratic nomination; black turnout is discouraged.  Hillary gets the nod.

In the general, McCain/Palin winds with less than 300 EV.  The GOP gains 10 seats in the House, but not a majority.

McCain successfully pushes a home loan guarantee program, which improves the housing market, eventually.  The economy begins to slightly improve in late 2010, but only after 11% unemployment rate.  D's gain 40 seats.

As was expected, McCain does not run for reelection.  While the unemployment rate does drop to 8.5%, Palin is defeated by Obama by more than 400 EV. 

[Stranger in a strange land]

President McCain would be a rubber stamp because the Dems would have super-majorities in both houses of congress.  His ability to govern would be further hamstrung by Palin undercutting and undermining him at every turn. He probably wouldn't be seeking reelection. The economy would be about the same if not worse.

[Skill and Chance]

President McCain would be a rubber stamp because the Dems would have super-majorities in both houses of congress.  His ability to govern would be further hamstrung by Palin undercutting and undermining him at every turn. He probably wouldn't be seeking reelection. The economy would be about the same if not worse.

If he did run for re-election, veto proof Democratic majorities would be the only thing that could save him.