State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Tintrlvr]

Well, interesting: Democrats won yesterday Trump's districts in New Hampshire and Oklahoma, but got less then a quatrer of votes and barely made a runoff in Mississippi's very swingy (on Presidential level) district. Either Democratic candidate was very bad, or Republican candidates were unusually good (and, in fact, McGee seems to be a Cochran-type pragmatic conservative, not McDaniel-type extremist, who actively participated in campaigns of her predeccessor, who was one of the most pragmatic Republicans in Legislature, and was convincingly elected as mayor of majority-Black city).

MS jungle primaries are non-partisan, so voters can't tell who the Democrat is and who the Republicans are. If there had been three Democrats and one Republican in the primary, the situation might have been reversed.

[Tintrlvr]

In case anyone was wondering:

This is misleading, though, because New Hampshire has way more seats in its legislature than any other state to begin with.

[Tintrlvr]

Apparently Rockingham HD 4 is the 4th most GOP seat in the entire state of New Hampshire.

Really? At only 59% Trump?

NH's just not that polarized. Part of why they've had comically huge swings in the state legislature at many of the elections of the past decade.

[Tintrlvr]

So, as stated above, the next special election is Florida HD 44 on October 10. This race has been a headache to Florida Democrats as the only candidate that filed, Paul Chandler, voted in Missouri twice in 2016 and thus was not eligible to run, and refused to withdraw until after the deadline to replace his name on the ballot. There have been allegations of intentional sabotage. The new Democratic candidate, Eddy Dominguez, will face the winner of the GOP primary, Bobby Olszewski, though Paul Chandler's name will still appear on the ballot.

The district went Clinton 51, Trump 45 in 2016 and Obama 46, Romney 53 in 2012. On paper it should be competitive, but I think other factors will likely keep this seat in GOP hands.

Does this mean only Chandler's name will be on the ballot (but a vote for Chandler is a vote for Dominguez)? Or that both Chandler and Dominguez will be on the ballot?

Pretty pathetic that the Florida Dems couldn't get a real candidate in this seat until *after* the crisis happened.

(The district is SW Orange County, for those curious, a definitely D-trending area but historically R, and includes Disney World. Lake Buena Vista/Windermere/Winter Garden.)

http://www.myfloridahouse.gov/FileStores/Web/District/2013_Districts/small/HD_44.pdf

[Tintrlvr]

Projecting a runoff for state senate district 6 in GA

State Senate - District 6 - Special General
18 of 50 Precincts Reporting - 36%
Max Runoff Cands=2
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Howard, Jaha   Dem   3,848   31%
Jordan, Jen   Dem   2,911   24%
Aldridge, Leah   GOP   1,683   14%
Bentley, Matt   GOP   1,584   13%
Fiveash, Charlie   GOP   1,523   12%
Eichenblatt, Kathy   GOP   292   2%
Wynn, Taos   Dem   270   2%
Smith, Leo   GOP   176   1%

A gain for the Democrats regardless, though, as the runoff will be DvD. Quite a good night for the Democrats in Georgia, gaining all three competitive seats.

[Tintrlvr]

I'd expect St. Croix to look more like Dunn or Pierce than like Polk or Burnett, going by the maps. St. Croix is the most urban county, and the areas of Dunn and Pierce in the district are also relatively urban, while Polk and especially Burnett are more rural. Polk and Burnett were also 60-61% Trump while St. Croix was only 55% (only relatively small parts of Dunn and Pierce are in the district so harder to compare those without sub-county results). So, if St. Croix swings the way Dunn and Pierce did, the Democrat narrowly wins St. Croix and wins the district.

Map for reference: http://legis.wisconsin.gov/ltsb/gisdocs/SenateMaps/Sen_10_Poster_Map.pdf

[Tintrlvr]

St. Croix County is in. 4918 for Jarchow, 6156 for Schachtner.

Decimated.

It's over.

D+1

This seat was already up in 2016, so now Democrats only need +3 in November to flip the chamber? If so, do you think it's a better possibility now, given the favorable environment?

There's a special for SD-01, a district with comparable or slightly less R partisanship in NE Wisconsin (Green Bay area but not including Green Bay), before the 2018 GE also. That could make it significantly easier if the Democrats can win there, though it is also up in 2018 regardless.

[Tintrlvr]

Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.

Isn't this area super elastic though? Swung hard for Trump but if you go back 10 years candidates like Jim Doyle were sweeping the Western part of the state including this district.

That's an eternity ago.

I'm still not totally sold on this. Obama won Dunn in 2012 and was pretty close in most of the rest of this district that year. I'm just as excited as anyone for this win (actually maybe more because I've always had a fondness for Wisconsin) but this isn't unprecedented for a Democrat to win here.

LMAO.. But Atlas told me any district outside of down towns are impossible for democrats to win in the rust belt.

Minor quibble but this area is more Great Plains than Rust Belt. St. Croix County is basically Twin Cities exurbs.

This area actually trended less R than Wisconsin as a whole in 2016. St. Croix County almost trended D. So 2016 was not unrepresentative of the district's history, relative to the entire state.

[Tintrlvr]

It's creeping back up to 61%. I think this measure will pass.

It's definitely passing. Looking at county-by-county results, it's running ahead of Obama 2008 in every county reporting thus far except tiny Sherman County. Should end up about where the figures are right now.

[Tintrlvr]

Any chance that this spooks Vern Buchanan into retiring? That's a really embarrassing result for his son in a district that covers a lot of the same ground as his own CD.

[Tintrlvr]

Here's the Schedule for April:

New York
See also: New York state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ New York State Senate District 32   
[show]☐ New York State Senate District 37   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 5   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 10   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 17   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 39   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 74   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 80   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 102   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 107   
[show]☐ New York State Assembly District 142   

Uhhh NY, is something wrong....

Special elections because a lot of RINOs in the legislature predictably went to jail for griftin’

Not just that. There's a wide diversity of seats on the list, including three R-held seats on Long Island, four D-held seats in NYC (two in the Bronx, one in Queens and one in Manhattan), a D-held seat in Westchester, two R-held seats in the Hudson Valley and a D-held seat in the Buffalo area. There are some pick-up opportunities for the Democrats on that list in AD-5, AD-17 and AD-107. AD-10 and AD-102 are probably safe for the Republicans but I guess can't be completely counted out. In a different environment, SD-37 could be vulnerable to the Republicans, but not in 2018. The other seats are all Democratic-held seats that will be safe Democratic holds.