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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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Author Topic: Post Random Maps Here 2.0.  (Read 210323 times)
Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #25 on: March 30, 2018, 01:53:02 PM »

I presented these four scenarios, to describe how different Democratic Nominees will fair against Trump in 2020. As you can see from my maps, Warren performs the worst against Trump (she loses to him in a near landslide, winning only 13 states, 183 Electoral Votes, and 45% of the Popular Vote) mainly due to her gender (Trump is very effective at attacking females, just look at what he did to Hillary Clinton) and “Coastal Elitist” image (she was a professor at Harvard). Booker performs slightly better then Warren (he wins 16 states, 210 Electoral Votes, and 48% of the Popular Vote), however he still loses because most White Americans are not ready for another Black president. Biden comes within inches of victory (he holds all the Clinton states, flips Michigan, and wins the Popular Vote by almost 3 points), however, he loses Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by razor-thin margins due to Trump tying him to Barack Obama. Finally, the only candidate I project to defeat Trump is Bernie Sanders (he holds all the Clinton states, flips Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and wins the Popular Vote by over 3 points), because his unique ability to communicate Far-Left economic policies (Single-Payer Healthcare, Free College, and a 15-dollar minimum wage), while not talking about Far-Left Social policies (#metoo hysteria and Transgender bathrooms), while simultaneously being genuinely Anti-War (he didn’t vote for the Iraq War, is opposed to invading Iran, and doesn’t blame Russia for Democrats losing elections), allows him to get record turnout from Millennials and Minorities, and win White Working Class voters no other Democrats can appeal to (he does this by not talking about Social issues), which together makes him the only Democrat who can win the Rust Belt and thus the election.

1. The only poll that showed Trump with an 8 point or greater margin was a poll of him vs. Stormy Daniels, a failed republican politician and porn star. In that poll, he was still only able to get 41% of the vote. He also lost to Stephanie Clifford, because people are idiots and don't know who Trump is.
2. Trump has lead in one poll against Warren. That poll was over a year ago. An average of polls this year would give her a 7 pt lead.
3. The United States twice elected Barack Obama, and he left office with very high favorability ratings. He currently has a 60% approval rating and is looking upon by historians as a good president. Being tied to him would help candidates. He has a higher approval rating than Trump in ing Alabama.
4. A 15 dollar minimum wage is moderately popular, but less so than milder increases, especially in rural areas. Single payer is split roughly 50-50 in approval ratings. The Transgender bathroom issue, meanwhile, allowed Democrats to win the governorship of NC while Trump and Burr both won it.
5. Bernie Sanders supported the Serbian war. He supported the 2001 Authorization Unilateral Military Force Against Terrorists, he supported Libya, and he supported an expanded US role in the Syrian Civil War. He voted in favor of an Iraq War twice, by voting for the the Iraq Liberation Act of 1998 and a resolution which stated "Congress reaffirms that it should be the policy of the United States to support efforts to remove the regime headed by Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq and to promote the emergence of a democratic  government to replace that regime." He is not by any stretch anti-war. He was against one specific war at one specific time. He was in favor of that war before, and of other wars after.
6. It has been solidly shown that Russia interfered in the United States election. I know you don't like that. It is still true.
7. Bernie Sanders overwhelmingly lost the black vote in the primary election. Bernie Sanders sponsored, lead, and personally profited from an attempt to dump low-level nuclear waste on a poor hispanic community. He is not a white savior, and he will not win minorities by anything like record-breaking margins.
8. There are swing states that are outside the rust belt. There are swing voters who aren't white working class.

In conclusion, every major point in your post is dreadfully wrong. Trump is unpopular, ineffective, and losing in polling to every democratic candidate. Barack Obama is popular and an excellent person for Democrats to tie themselves too. Social issues are the winning ones for Democrats. They have towering majorities on their side for these fights. Legal marijuana, abortion on demand, background checks and gay marriage are all exceptionally popular, in district after district and state after state. Economic leftism, meanwhile, is of middling popularity. Finally, Bernie Sanders is a scandal ridden hypocrite who is far too old for the Oval Office and the only reason Democrats would select him is if they wanted to make gains in 2022 under President Trump. He is the only major Democratic candidate who might botch this, and even then I wouldn't be sure.

Now, I'd like to talk about why you're doing this. You're investing an absurd amount of time and effort to be a blatant republican hack under the guise of a Sanders supporter. You have a willful disregard for anything resembling objective reality. Why? What makes you want to waste your time on bullsh**tting everyone around you? You've invested a tremendous amount of time in making predictions that are completely unrelated to objective reality. Why?
It’s obvious your a true believer in the extremely successful Obama-Clinton strategy, that has left Democrats with no House, no Senate, no Presidency, and record lows in Governorships and state legislatures. If Democrats continue to talk about out of control Social Progressivsm (I support Abortion and Gay Marriage, but #metoo hysteria and Transgender bathrooms are a bridge to far for me), Russophobia, and Economic Centrism (Obamacare was s**ty legislation that jacked up Health insurance prices on consumers and made Health Insurance company’s a fortune, the only way to fix healthcare is Single-Payer), they will never win the House, Senate, or Presidency, for at least a decade. Also, how dare you say Bernie Sanders is a “scandal-ridden hypocrite”, if you want one of those then I will guide you no further then Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Paul Ryan, Mich Mcconell, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, or any of the other two-faced liars that have dominated American politics since Reagan won his Klan-appeasing campaign in 1980. Bernie Sanders is the most honest elected official in American politics today, and I find it so amusing that you are citing opposition research from the most poorly-run presidential campaign in modern American history (the Hillary Clinton Campaign), in saying Bernie Sanders “dumped toxic waste on Mexicans”. Finally, if the Democrats continue down this horrifying pathway you want them to stay on, I hope they never win another damn election, because their will be no difference between them and the Republicans except on a couple dumb Social issues (both parties will support turning America into a third world country where Rich people and Multinational Corporations Control all wealth, while everyone else is living on the street, in slums, or in prison, and meanwhile the US military will be bombing innocent civilians in the Middle East to protect Zionist Isreal and Wahhabi Saudi Arabia).

1. Use Spellcheck. Seriously.
2. Downballot losses are common during pretty much every presidency. It was exacerbated during the Obama presidency because the south finally became solidly republican downballot and because Republicans, once in power, gerrymandered maps to stay there.
3. There is something here you are not understanding. You may have far-left economic views. You may not be a big social liberal. But that doesn't mean that that policy mix is necessarily popular. Going on a rant about how you think Single-payer is great and transgender people being able to use bathrooms isn't won't change objective reality. One of those issues has popular majorities in support. One does not.
4. Bernie Sanders pushed for low-level nuclear waste to be dumped on a poor hispanic town, and refused to support an amendment giving them any legal recourse. He then got his wife on the board for this, despite this being a texas dump and both of them living in Vermont. They then profited off of her salary for this for nearly two decades.
5. Bernie Sanders called the F-35 program wasteful, but then supported it when it seemed like it would help his state.
6. Sanders voted for the 1994 crime bill then tried hit Clinton for supporting it.
7. Bernie Sanders wrote an essay where he said women want to be raped. In other essays, he stated that children should run around naked and touch each other's genitals, and that cancer is caused by stress from women not putting out. He also voted against the Amber Alert and against criminalizing child pornography.
8. Sanders attended a Nicaraguan anti-America rally during which the crowds chanted “Here, there, everywhere the Yankee will die.” He is on record declaring this demonstration patriotic. Sanders proclaimed that "Breadlines are a good thing". Sanders praised Castro and Nicaragua extensively in a TV interview. Sanders honeymooned in the USSR. It wasn’t his actual honeymoon, but an immediate trip after he was married because he had meetings as mayor in Burlington’s sister city, Yaroslavl. Would this distinction matter? Probably not. Sanders hung a Soviet flag in his office in Burlington in honor of this sister city arrangement. Would it be painted as tacitly endorsing the commies? Probably.
Sanders participated in an interview in which he says “Capitalism as an economic system has to be radically altered and changed” and “Democracy means public ownership of the major means of production, it means decentralization, it means involving people in their work. Rather than having bosses and workers it means having democratic control over the factories and shops to as great a degree as you can.” Sanders says that he has his own feelings about what causes cancer. Sanders stated that he “doesn’t believe in charities.” Sanders states that he was excited about the revolution in Cuba because he felt it was right that the poor people were standing up to the "ugly rich people."

Sanders is a politician who has a history of dirty dealings, especially around his wife. He also has a past filled with ridiculous, obviously unpopular statements.

9. I know you don't like the fact that social issues are more popular than economic issues. I know you don't like the fact that Sanders is unpopular. Too bad. It is still true.
I’m sick of constantly hearing about his “sex essays” from the 1970s, when almost everyone was writing sex essays in the 1960s and 1970s, (one of my favorite books, “One flew over the cuckoos nest”, was written in that time period and had lots of weird sex stuff in it). And the rest of your argument is mainly a bunch of washed-up Clinton campaign oppo research (I see you keep regurgitating the “dumbed toxic waste on Mexicans” talking point), and what’s wrong with the fact he may have been a Communist in the 1980s, it’s obvious he isn’t now, because a real “Communist” wouldn’t serve as a congressman and senator. Finally, Their is a lot of polling that disproves your view that Far-Left Social policies are more popular then Far-Left economic policies, for example I’ve seen polling that around 10 times as many Americans are Economically Left-wing and Socialy Right-wing, then Economicaly Right-wing and Socialy Left-wing (this last combination seems to be you’re ideology).

Let me summarize your post.
1. Spelling errors.
2. If anyone has ever brought up this flaw of Sanders, then it's washed up oppo research.
3. Waaaaa! Why doesn't anyone agree with me? Waaaaa! Why are policies I support unpopular? Waaaaa!
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #26 on: March 30, 2018, 05:20:41 PM »

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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #27 on: March 31, 2018, 09:35:49 AM »

Back on topic, here's this thing


This is the electoral college of the United States after a census a few centuries from now. As you can see, a few things have changed.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #28 on: April 01, 2018, 05:27:37 PM »

Uniform Shift 1: '12-'16



Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren: 272 EV, 49% pv
Donald Trump/Chris Christie: 266 EV, 47% pv

Uniform Shift 2: '08-'12



Obama/Biden: 285 EV, 50% pv
Romney/Ryan: 253 EV, 46% pv

Uniform Shift 3: '04-'08



Obama/Biden: 405 EV, 53% pv
McCain/Lieberman: 133 EV, 46% pv

Uniform Shift 4: 2000-2004



Bush/Cheney: 303 EV, 50% pv
Kerry/Dean: 235 EV, 48.5% pv
The country shifted roughly 10% D from 2004-'08, but Kerry lost Tennessee by 14% in 2004... How does Obama win it here?

The country shifted 8 points from 1R (roughly)- 7 D, I simply added 8 to the D column and took 8 away from the R column. This result is that Tennessee is won by Obama by 2 points.

You are doubling the swing there then. If the country shifted 8 points D, then you would add 4 points to the Democrats and subtract 4 from the Republicans for a uniform swing.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #29 on: April 12, 2018, 02:07:16 PM »

To quote Monty Python, "and now for something completely different", LOL. 

This is a "what-if" with a re-imagined CSA.  Virginia is defined as a Confederate state, but not West Virginia.  Texas is split in two, with the eastern portion being Confederate, and having fourteen electoral votes.  Please ignore the non-southern states, LOL. 

There are one hundred and thirty votes in the CSA electoral college; sixty-eight votes are needed for a majority. 

No big intro to this (1976) race.  To wit:




George Wallace (D-AL): 65 EVs
X Strom Thurmond (R-SC): 70 EVs

X = winner

So this?
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #30 on: August 27, 2018, 08:15:16 PM »

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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #31 on: August 28, 2018, 01:24:52 PM »

Little bit further in the future than that.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #32 on: August 28, 2018, 09:15:38 PM »

SENATE ELECTIONS, 2018-2032
2018 Senate Elections


Democratic Party: 51 (+2)

Republican Party: 49 (-2)

2020 Senate Elections


Democratic Party: 63 (+12)
Republican Party: 37 (-12)

2022 Senate Elections


Democratic Party: 74 (+8)
Republican Party: 30 (-8)


2024 Senate Elections


Democratic Party: 76 (+2)
Republican Party: 28 (-2)


2026 Senate Elections


Democratic Party: 74 (-2)
Republican Party: 30 (+2)

2028 Senate Elections


Democratic Party: 72 (-2)
Republican Party: 32 (+2)

2030 Senate Elections


Democratic Party: 63 (-9)
Republican Party: 41 (+9)

2032 Senate Elections


Democratic Party: 55 (-8)
Republican Party: 49 (+8)


CURRENT SENATE COMPOSITION
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


« Reply #33 on: September 08, 2018, 09:24:03 PM »


2020 Landslide after impeachment
CORY BOOKER/TIM RYAN 374
Donald Trump/M.Pence 160
Honest question: Why is every map you post shaded so weird? They never have a consistent color scheme, and it's clearly on purpose.
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