US House Redistricting: Michigan

[Torie]

If they actually do put part of the 5th in Wayne County, that's gonna make for some interesting happenings during the county meetings back home... especially since the county has never really interacted with the 5th.

The 5th never hits Wayne in any of the 3 plans, just Oakland in one of them, to take in Pontiac. By the way, who is the Pubbie point man in the legislature for redistricting?  Would you happen to know, or could you find out?  I am not getting much cooperation so far when I call.

[Torie]

In the never ending saga of Torie meets Michigan, I have yet another new "improved" map. Muon2 in his gentle but persistent professorial way, was kicking my butt so hard about my triple CD split of Washtenaw County from a legal standpoint, that my cheeks were metaphorically black and blue. I resisted him because it seemed to me that doing but a double split of Washtenaw, meant yet another county split elsewhere, an exercise that I went through time and again. But I was fixated on either CD-08 or CD-07 taking all of Washtenaw left over from CD-15 (the Dingell district, now CD-09, since the old Oakland County CD-09 is now gone).

But alas I failed to consider Dingell himself taking over the territory of one of the other CD's in Washtenaw (yes, Torie was a total dumb on that one), and as soon as I considered that, I realized, that yes indeed, Dingell could take over the northern strip of Washtenaw from CD-08, without another county split. So it had to be done. The consequence is that CD-08 needed to grab some of the precincts at the northern edges of CD-11 (to replace the lost Washtenaw precincts), comfortably to heavily GOP (I cherry picked the precincts in Troy City, and thus the ugly CD-08 spike down along the Macomb County border, because the northern row of Troy City precincts were like 60-40 Bush, and I just hated to give them up, so thus the spike which is about 55-45 Bush). This in turn forced CD-11 to then pick up some marginal Dem territory to its south in Oakland (Berkeley and most  Royal Oak City (all but 11 of most of the most heavily Dem precincts which conveniently are in the southern edge of Royal Oak).  (The two black CD's then had to pick up some territory from Dingell in Wayne County, which is not relevant for this exercise, since those CD's are designed to all be massively Dem.)

This merry-go-round involved about 43,000 people, and the results were less harmful to CD-11 than I feared. It dropped from 55.04% Bush 2004 to 54.32% Bush 2004. The number of folks was small enough, and the new Dem territory marginal enough, to limit the damage.

I suspect the CD-11 Bush 2004 number will get back up to about 55%, when the real census numbers come in, and we find the Pubbie areas of Oakland County have more people relative to the Dem areas, thereby affording a relatively more populated Pubbie zone in Oakland for CD-08 and CD-11 to divvy up as compared to the Dem areas in order for the CD's to meet the equal population requirement. The only fly in the ointment is if Pontiac suffered a rather catastrophic population loss relatively speaking, which while massively Dem, represents an island in the otherwise heavily GOP CD-08 sea (except for 60-40 or close to it middle to upper middle class Dem West Bloomfield, which CD-08 also seamlessly sucks up), that potentially could cause CD-08 to get greedy again for CD-11 Oakland County precincts. But I strongly suspect the net effect will be fairly substantially positive for CD-11, since most of the balance of what is in CD-08 in Oakland is heavily GOP and probably had pretty good population growth relative to the Dem south to southeast corner of Oakland.

Are we happy now Muon2?    Thanks by the way; I needed your help!

[muon2]

Torie, now you're cooking with gas.

I think it's fascinating to compare your ingenious work using the MI standards to the neutral application I prepared a few months ago. Here we used the same data and same standards but reached radically different results. I think it conclusively shows how geographic requirements alone are insufficient to suppress partisan gerrymandering.

They're not really reasonable, though. They're drawn to dilute Democratic strength.

- MI-03 puts Grand Rapids in the very western corner. A fair district would have Grand Rapids as the center of population.

- MI-04 is specifically drawn to exclude Saginaw, and stretches 2/3rds of the way across the state.

- MI-07 and MI-08 each stretch from the middle of the state to the suburbs of Detroit. Battle Creek and Lansing would more logically be put in the same district, but they're split between the two.

- MI-11 is a bizarre L-shaped district that also attempts to dilute Dem strength as much as possible.

What is interesting about this observation is that MI used fairly rigorous standards to draw districts in 2001. They were based on the standards used by the court-appointed master in 1981 and 1991 and codified into law in the late '90s. The standards rest heavily on minimizing the splitting of counties, townships and municipalities, and the law describes the types of splits that are permissible.

An analysis for the Midwest Democracy Network by Michael McDonald of George Mason U last year showed that the partisan composition of the districts had 5 strong D, 2 strong R and 8 lean R. The fact that the GOP was able to stay within these standards to get an such effective advantage perhaps does rank MI as the most deceptive gerrymander.

To satisfy my own curiosity, I tested the MI standards with the estimated data set. All districts are with 100 persons of the ideal size, and two black-majority districts (58% and 56%) are maintained. The districts were drawn to conform with MI state law as regards to minimization of county, township and municipality splits. Using 2004 presidential votes, I get 5 strong D districts, 4 strong R, 2 lean D and 3 lean R. Based on this I would conclude that the standards were fine, but not tight enough to prevent partisan gerrymandering.


 

[Torie]

Only Rogers could hold CD-08 in your map Muon2, and even he might have trouble in a year like 2008. If he retired, a Dem would take that CD without too much of a sweat all things being equal. The university precincts are just deadly to the GOP. Some other Pubbie incumbents would also be quite vulnerable. They would not like your map - at all.

But then as you say, it is a relatively non-partisan map.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

If they actually do put part of the 5th in Wayne County, that's gonna make for some interesting happenings during the county meetings back home... especially since the county has never really interacted with the 5th.

The 5th never hits Wayne in any of the 3 plans, just Oakland in one of them, to take in Pontiac. By the way, who is the Pubbie point man in the legislature for redistricting?  Would you happen to know, or could you find out?  I am not getting much cooperation so far when I call.

I was referring to muon's original map.

As for the point man in the legislature for redistricting... I'll see if I can find that out.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Here's what I drew up.  I know it sucks, and probably isn't very legal.  But I spent a good 4 hours on it one night, and I've tried fixing it and after 2 hours of fiddling, it was just worse.  So, here's my map, for what it's worth

[Torie]

Well, Inks the map of the Detroit metro area certainly looks legal, but Kerry may have carried CD-11 (the green district) because you have both Farmington and West Bloomfield in it in Oakland, plus it goes too far south, and takes in all of Westland, which is at once both a big place and a  "bad place" (about 57% Kerry), and Wayne, which is an even worse place (although much smaller), at 59% Kerry.  Redford also sucks at 56% Kerry or something (and it is a fairly large suburb as well). Overall, your MI-11 looks like it might be something like a +2% Dem PVI CD. McCotter will freak. Your cyan CD (MI-09), is a Dem district basically, which Peters will easily carry (putting 85% Dem and large Southfield in it, and 85% Dem Pontiac, plus some other towns almost as Dem like Huntington Woods and Farmdale, along with some marginal Dem towns, probably makes it something like a 58% Kerry CD).

In my map, McCotter in CD-11 was far safer (no West Bloomfield (close to 60% Kerry with a pretty big population), no Wayne, no Redford, and only a partial of Westland). I eliminated CD-09 rather than CD-12, and my new MI-12 CD is marginal (and all in Macomb County, where Levin was very weak in 2010, only carrying that portion of his CD (the most Dem part of Macomb, by 53%), with a PVI at about even. One of the keys there is to unlock and pump into my MI-12 the Pubbie Gross Pointes, while not picking up 57% Kerry Harbor Woods. That is what enables it to be made a dead even CD - and nothing else - of remotely equal importance. The rest was playing games like trying legally to get small but something like 57% Kerry Mt. Clemens out of MI-12 legally, which I finally figured out how to do. The Mt. Clemens cutout  was worth about 15 basis points or something for MI-12 on my map in the Pubbie direction. In this game, you fight for every basis point.

Oh, and Camp in MI-04 is going to hate his CD. It is probably only about 52% Bush, if that. Ouch! Pubbie CD's in this neck of the woods need to be 54.5% Bush 2004 (+3% GOP PVI) to be viewed as reasonably safe. Anything less, and the odds of them falling in a wave, or falling if open, begin to go up exponentially. You can't cut him off from heavily GOP Grand Traverse, and a couple of other surrounding counties up there, and saddle him with Bay City (both of which I did as well), without giving him some compensating solid GOP territory, which ends up having to be Kent County adjacent and probably Dutch influence Ionia and Barry Counties. They just have to be in his CD, if you are going to cut him off from the NW, in order to make MI-01 more GOP. I also see that you have Mt. Pleasant in Camp's CD as well, which needs to go. I put that place in the Kent County CD, in order to neutralize it.

Camp is currently at about 55%, and I shaved him down to 54.6% or something (the numbers are in a post of mine above), and I would like if I could to get it higher, but I can't given the legal rules, unless I push MI-01 into the marginal zone. Hopefully Camp won't bitch too much. All of the other Pubbies will be deliriously happy with their CD's, except perhaps for Miller in CD-10, who was shaved down a bit, but she is still above 55%, and I doubt will complain. The trends in her zone are good.

Oh wait. The CD that you label CD-12 which is some of Detroit, some of Dearborn maybe, the Gross Pointes and Harbor Woods, and the southern tier of Macomb, may  not by the look of it to me be 50% black. Is it?  If it isn't, then yes, the map is illegal under the VRA. But that can be fixed by shifting around precincts between the two CD's that take in Detroit.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I made 9 heavily Democratic since it basically ate up a large portion of the 12th, that way since the Dems lose Levin (assuming Peters would stay over Levin), they'd be happier they have a strong hold.

As for the 11th, I thought I was careful enough to keep it Republican enough to stay favorable for McCotter.

As for the 4th, yeah... I know... that whole thing with Bay City and Saginaw is just weird... I gave him Bay City over Saginaw because Saginaw would be way too Democratic heavy.  But then it got weird trying to connect that to the thumb, otherwise the 5th got too many people.

[Torie]

Well you "wasted" a bunch of Pubbies in the thumb by locking them up in the Flint CD.  The Flint CD needs to go in the opposite  direction, and lock up Lansing Dems rather than thumb Pubbies.  Inks, face it, you just don't have the hyper partisan killer instinct.  

[minionofmidas]

Am I correct in assuming that Levin and Peters both live in the seat drawn for McCotter, Torie? (Actually, I'm sure that Peters does, but Levin is more interesting - the district seems to be far more Oakland than Wayne, and Levin has been around for ages, so it might make for those "McCotter's safe once he gets past 2012" situations.) So... who're the prospective candidates for the new, open Macomb County district, from either party?

[Torie]

Am I correct in assuming that Levin and Peters both live in the seat drawn for McCotter, Torie? (Actually, I'm sure that Peters does, but Levin is more interesting - the district seems to be far more Oakland than Wayne, and Levin has been around for ages, so it might make for those "McCotter's safe once he gets past 2012" situations.) So... who're the prospective candidates for the new, open Macomb County district, from either party?

Levin lives in Royal Oak, which I have split, but it was split before, so I think he lives in one of the 11 most southern precincts that are in MI-02.  I don't think Levin will run in MI-02.  Peters lives in Rochester, which is in MI-08, the Rogers district. Beating Rogers will be a hopeless task for Peters. Candice Miller lives in MI-10, but barely in Harrison Township, about one precinct away from the boundary between MI-10 and 12. MI-10 and MI-12 can be redrawn to put her home in MI-12 (and I can make the seat about 50 basis points more GOP or so, if she chooses to take the risk and run in marginal MI-12).  

In all likelihood, Levin will move a couple of miles east into Macomb County, and run in his newly redrawn MI-12. He should be a slight favorite if Miller is not his opponent, I would think, although this year he would have lost MI-12 the way that I drew it (I know that because he only got 53% against a nothing Pubbie opponent this year in the Macomb part of his district, and that is about 55% Kerry, while the new Macomb portion of MI-12 (which is most of the CD), is 50.2% Kerry, with the Pubbie Gross Pointes pushing MI-12 into the Bush zone - about 51% Bush). But 2012 is a different year than 2010, isn't it? Of course, Levin is 79, and in the minority now, and is likely to stay that way, and he might choose to retire. On the other hand, he got his ranking member slot on whatever committee it is that he is on, which is an important one, so perhaps not.

You will have to ask Inks and crew, and those who knew the Pubbie and Dem Macomb benches in MI, about who out there will cast a lean and hungry look at my new MI-12. I just deal with major league players, not minor ones.

If Miller runs in MI-12, then MI-10 becomes an open seat, which will probably set up  a regional GOP primary battle between a Thumber, a Macomb County-Port Huron exurbaner, and a Flint suburbaner. Those areas are the three components of MI-10.

[minionofmidas]

Levin lives in Royal Oak, which I have split, but it was split before, so I think he lives in one of the 11 most southern precincts that are in MI-02.  I don't think Levin will run in MI-02.

You mean 14, but you answered my question anyways.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wiki says Bloomfield Hills, which is in McCotter's. Still, either district is too Republican for me to like his chances.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, that part of the question was really directed at anybody reading this.
I don't think Miller's the type to run a personal risk just to make things easier for the Republican Party. After all, she and Thad McCotter basically drew the last map together with the single objective of going to Washington, in their respective functions of SoS and State Senate Redistricting Committee chair (IIRC - well, I seem to recall he chaired the redistricting committee and looked up whether he was in the state house or senate at the time).

[Torie]

I mixed up MI and PA when it came to recalling the numbers of the black CD's.

Yes, you might be right that Peters lives in Bloomfield Hills (his kids go to school there). This bio gives you an idea why it is confusing. If Peters were a Pubbie, I would look up his actual address through a title company. Bloomfield Hills is probably the richest town in Michigan, so Peters has money I guess. And no, he can't win against McCotter either, and McCotter's district will get a tad more Pubbie when the intra county town census numbers come in. I worked very hard on MI-11.  It is my piece de resistance really.

You are probably right that Miller won't put herself at risk for the team, although it is more  possible perhaps if Levin retires. One reason her existing CD is so "over-Pubbied" is that the Pubbies in 2000 were desperate to get rid of that high profile Congressman, David Bonior, who was sticking it to the Pubbies rhetorically, and sort of a Dem folk hero, for holding all those lower middle class Catholic voters, while still being an in your face out of the closet liberal. So the Pubbies wanted to give him a clear message that his day in the sun was over, and in fact he did not run for re-election.

[minionofmidas]

Quite (and I remember his name) - though he didn't just retire.

Michigan Gubernatorial Election 2002 - Democratic Primary
Party    Candidate    Votes    %    ±%
   Democratic    Jennifer Granholm    499,129    47.69    
   Democratic    David Bonior    292,958    27.99    
   Democratic    Jim Blanchard    254,586    24.32    

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Alright... this edition is a lot more GOP friendly, and it's gerrymander-licious ... (also... made a mistake the first time and missed one slice of a 5th district inside the 4th, so add 6 voters to the 4th that come from the 5th.

[dpmapper]

Why bother?  Torie's last map is the way to go - Dems down to 4.5 districts.  I don't see how one can improve on it. 

[Torie]

Inks your new map is illegal unfortunately it looks like because for starters it appears to have too many gratuitous county splits. It also seems to have some illegal township and city splits (you can only have one per CD vis a vis another CD, but those can be fixed). Isn't this fun?  

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Inks your new map is illegal unfortunately it looks like because for starters it has too many gratuitous county splits. Isn't this fun? 

Yeah... I figured it was illegal (anything I describe as gerrymander-licious probably isn't exactly legally ideal, you know ).

[Torie]

Inks your new map is illegal unfortunately it looks like because for starters it has too many gratuitous county splits. Isn't this fun? 

Yeah... I figured it was illegal (anything I describe as gerrymander-licious probably isn't exactly legally ideal, you know ).

And that is why I just loved drawing Michigan. How can I draw a legal map that maximizes the F'ing of the Dems?  That was just an ideal project for my  aggressive little legal mind, as I worked through all the little, sometimes rather complex, traps, and tried to be creative. It was almost as enjoyable as sex, although not quite.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

While it's not legal, I'm proud of my last one... especially CD 10.

[Torie]

While it's not legal, I'm proud of my last one... especially CD 10.

Your CD-10 has a Pubbie excess, so it violates the Goldilocks Rule.   But yes, your CD-10 is beautiful.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

So, I didn't realize I could see info for the whole district (which, I thought that was incredibly stupid not being able to see demographic stuff by the entire district instead of just by "voting district"), so to answer your question about my initial map, regarding the legality of CD 12, it is 51% black.

[Torie]

So, I didn't realize I could see info for the whole district (which, I thought that was incredibly stupid not being able to see demographic stuff by the entire district instead of just by "voting district"), so to answer your question about my initial map, regarding the legality of CD 12, it is 51% black.

That might not work, because the Dave Bradlee numbers are population numbers, and not VAP numbers, and although the gap is much narrower than it used to be, blacks still have a higher percentage of minors in their population, than whites do. You need to get up to about 53% or so to be in the safe zone, unless you can persuade a court, that enough whites will vote for a black, that you can go lower. That won't fly very well in a state like Michigan, unless you are talking about Oakland County. Macomb is a different breed of cat. The Pubbies will have zero interest in litigating that issue in Michigan.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

So, I didn't realize I could see info for the whole district (which, I thought that was incredibly stupid not being able to see demographic stuff by the entire district instead of just by "voting district"), so to answer your question about my initial map, regarding the legality of CD 12, it is 51% black.

That might not work, because the Dave Bradlee numbers are population numbers, and not VAP numbers, and although the gap is much narrower than it used to be, blacks still have a higher percentage of minors in their population, than whites do. You need to get up to about 53% or so to be in the safe zone, unless you can persuade a court, that enough whites will vote for a black, that you can go lower. That won't fly very well in a state like Michigan, unless you are talking about Oakland County. Macomb is a different breed of cat. The Pubbies will have zero interest in litigating that issue in Michigan.

Well, it's close enough that if that were the map, it could be fiddled with to add a few Detroit areas and take out some of the metro areas and move it all around.

[Torie]

So, I didn't realize I could see info for the whole district (which, I thought that was incredibly stupid not being able to see demographic stuff by the entire district instead of just by "voting district"), so to answer your question about my initial map, regarding the legality of CD 12, it is 51% black.

That might not work, because the Dave Bradlee numbers are population numbers, and not VAP numbers, and although the gap is much narrower than it used to be, blacks still have a higher percentage of minors in their population, than whites do. You need to get up to about 53% or so to be in the safe zone, unless you can persuade a court, that enough whites will vote for a black, that you can go lower. That won't fly very well in a state like Michigan, unless you are talking about Oakland County. Macomb is a different breed of cat. The Pubbies will have zero interest in litigating that issue in Michigan.

Well, it's close enough that if that were the map, it could be fiddled with to add a few Detroit areas and take out some of the metro areas and move it all around.

Yes, indeed it is an easy fix, and one that I needed to do, until I hit 53% for my eastern Detroit CD, while still trying to make the two black CD's look "compact." I was balancing beauty (and in this case beauty is a factor for the court) against the VRA.