2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[BudgieForce]

Even with that Monmouth poll, the RCP average still has the Democrats up by 7.5

"Throw it in the average" is always the best answer for an outlier.

[junior chįmp]

Monmouth

Democrats: 47 (-4)
Republicans: 45 (+9)


Holy hell.

Nancy Pelosi seen bawling her eyes out in the corner.

Yawn....these the same polls that had Hillary winning in a landslide? Rofl

[Doimper]

Clearly Democrats are doomed. LimoLiberal's hot take is all we need to pay attention to.

Have you guys considered banning the moron that's cheerfully sh**tting everywhere?

I can't ban him, and I'm probably in a minority if not alone among the mods who think career trolls like him should be banned.

But if he keeps posting commentary meant to incite arguments then I'll consider moving his posts and threads to a single megathread.

I tend to think that individual moderators should be trusted with the power to ban people instead of being forced to hand trolls off to whatever convoluted deliberation process Dave makes you guys go through, but I guess I'm in the minority.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Monmouth

Democrats: 47 (-4)
Republicans: 45 (+9)


Holy hell.

Nancy Pelosi seen bawling her eyes out in the corner.

Yawn....these the same polls that had Hillary winning in a landslide? Rofl

Bad poll - FAKE NEWS

Good poll - WINNING!!! #MAGA

[Hindsight was 2020]

This poll isn't great for Dems, but there is nothing to worry about. Of course they should still look at it and fix their strategy, but there were polls similar like this where the Democrats were beating the GOP in 2010 and then lost. We need to look at the environment and history, both of which heavily favor the Democrats.

* Dem candidates outraising Reps by miles
* Record number of GOP politicians resigning
* Highly unpopular President

His approvals are going up though...fox, cnn, and mounmouth  have all shown upticks. Democrats shouldn’t take their natural advantage this year for granted, especially when the DNC is 200k away from insolvency when the GOP has millions in cash on hand plus the Koch network.
Apples and oranges. The GOP relies on the RNC for funding while dems rely on the DCCC which has seen a fundraising boom

[UncleSam]

Did they move to a different screening model? Hard to understand that large a shift otherwise.

That being said, my first paycheck came through under the new tax plan and I greatly appreciate the extra money. My guess is this poll is a response to seeing larger paychecks, but there will be many news cycles between now and the midterms. If history has shown us anything, it is that, while good for the president temporarily, larger paychecks and a stalwart economy will be afterthoughts after another bad tweet or three in the coming months - time has that impact on people.

Still, don't understand the argument that this isn't an R surge (and a predictable one at that) due to the tax cuts. Rs have clearly gained ~5 points on the generic ballot in the last month or so. Dems should probably stop trying to say the tax cuts are a disaster until they actually cause some damage, it's just bad strategy to try to tell people that them making more money is harmful, especially if there's no caveat of reduced employment options to go with it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

For concern trolls like Limo...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

[_]

For concern trolls like Limo...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

You'll underperform the Generic Ballot by 3?

[LimoLiberal]

For concern trolls like Limo...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

You'll underperform the Generic Ballot by 3?

Lol. They can't accept that the blue wave is crumbling.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

For concern trolls like Limo...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html

You'll underperform the Generic Ballot by 3?

Lol. They can't accept that the blue wave is crumbling.

@Madigan you missed the point.

@LimoLiberal Obviously you didn't click on the link.

[Yank2133]

Yeah, you two missed the point. Go look at the polls in January 2010 and then look at the final result in November 2010.

[_]

Yeah, you two missed the point. Go look at the polls in January 2010 and then look at the final result in November 2010.

From D+2 to R+9

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, you two missed the point. Go look at the polls in January 2010 and then look at the final result in November 2010.

From D+2 to R+9

For the love of God... The opposition party (GOP) consistently outpolled the Democrats by significant margins. They dipped in the summer and the Dems lead a few polls but the GOP ultimately won big.

Right now the Dems and the GOP have switched places.

You're so daft.

[_]

Yeah, you two missed the point. Go look at the polls in January 2010 and then look at the final result in November 2010.

From D+2 to R+9

For the love of God... The opposition party (GOP) consistently outpolled the Democrats by significant margins. They dipped in the summer and the Dems lead a few polls but the GOP ultimately won big.

Right now the Dems and the GOP have switched places.

You're so daft.

+6 was big for Rs, but it might not be enough for Dems now with all the gerrymandering.  We'll see. 

[Yank2133]

Yeah, you two missed the point. Go look at the polls in January 2010 and then look at the final result in November 2010.

From D+2 to R+9

The point is even when generic ballot polls showed the party in power doing fine. The environment and the President's approval rating were the bigger indicator.

[BudgieForce]

Perhaps it'd be better if we just all logged off and came back in November because this sucks.

[LimoLiberal]

Perhaps it'd be better if we just all logged off and came back in November because this sucks.

Yep. That's what I'm going to do. I'll be back in late February for the Pennsylvania special election. These polls give me so much anxiety because I genuinely think that our country will crumble if Republicans still hold power in 2019. I know all of you think that I'm a secret Republican or that King Lear is my sock or that I post on RRH, but no. I'm a Democrat who believes that the Republicans and Trump will win over voters this year.

Anyways, bye. I'll hope for some good polls in the mean time.

Feel free to celebrate

[KingSweden]

Perhaps it'd be better if we just all logged off and came back in November because this sucks.

Yep. That's what I'm going to do. I'll be back in late February for the Pennsylvania special election. These polls give me so much anxiety because I genuinely think that our country will crumble if Republicans still hold power in 2019. I know all of you think that I'm a secret Republican or that King Lear is my sock or that I post on RRH, but no. I'm a Democrat who believes that the Republicans and Trump will win over voters this year.

Anyways, bye. I'll hope for some good polls in the mean time.

Feel free to celebrate

I think a mental health break away will do you some good because you get seriously wayyyy too worked up about every little poll

[GeorgiaModerate]

We need a T- avatar for the dedicated trolls.

[King Lear]

Perhaps it'd be better if we just all logged off and came back in November because this sucks.

Yep. That's what I'm going to do. I'll be back in late February for the Pennsylvania special election. These polls give me so much anxiety because I genuinely think that our country will crumble if Republicans still hold power in 2019. I know all of you think that I'm a secret Republican or that King Lear is my sock or that I post on RRH, but no. I'm a Democrat who believes that the Republicans and Trump will win over voters this year.

Anyways, bye. I'll hope for some good polls in the mean time.

Feel free to celebrate

Please don’t leave, your one of the few voices of reason on this forum, without you here it’s just going to be me trying to convince my fellow Democrats not to be overwhelmed with hubris again.

[Devout Centrist]

Anyways, bye.

Good

[Ronnie]

Perhaps it'd be better if we just all logged off and came back in November because this sucks.

Yep. That's what I'm going to do. I'll be back in late February for the Pennsylvania special election. These polls give me so much anxiety because I genuinely think that our country will crumble if Republicans still hold power in 2019. I know all of you think that I'm a secret Republican or that King Lear is my sock or that I post on RRH, but no. I'm a Democrat who believes that the Republicans and Trump will win over voters this year.

Anyways, bye. I'll hope for some good polls in the mean time.

Feel free to celebrate

Please don’t leave, your one of the few voices of reason on this forum, without you here it’s just going to be me trying to convince my fellow Democrats not to be overwhelmed with hubris again.

It's entirely possible to acknowledge that the Dems might not take either chamber of congress without declaring that they're doomed in every single post.

[LimoLiberal]

Anyways, bye.

Good

Decided to come back just because of this mean comment.

[Arkansas Yankee]

RCL shows the collapse of the Democratic margin in several polls from December to January:

CNN  +18 to +5
Monmouth +15 to +2
Reuters/Ipsos +12 to +6
Economist/Yougov +9 to +5
NBC News/Wall St. Junk.  +11 to +6

Does this mean no Democrat wave in the House? Possibly.  Possibly not. 

However, these changes indicate the GOP might be able to reduce the size of the wave. They also indicate the GOP might be able to pull off a Senate wave.

The main reason for the wave in 2010 was the low turnout of younger Democrat voters compared to older GOP voters.  A Democrat wave this year depends on the reversal of these turnouts. If the GOP is able to reduce the difference in turnout, it can reduce the wave in the House and create the GOP wave in the Senate. This is possible because older voter have a history of turning out well in midterms.

Unlike LimoLiberal I look forward to such a turn of events.

[Hindsight was 2020]

A senate wave?
Okay who is beating Brown? Tester? Baldwin? Casey? Stabenow?