Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[mileslunn]

Actually Rural Alberta is one area where Conservative support is so strong a split would be harmless as one of the two parties would win.  On the other hand could be bad news in Calgary and especially Edmonton if it gets any traction.  Whether it does or not is tough to say.  I tend to think it won't make much difference as most Conservatives hate Trudeau with a passion so the base will coalesce behind whichever party is most likely to defeat them.  Where things could get interesting is can he pull away some swing voters who dislike both the Liberals and Tories.  While much of that group is not libertarian per se, some might who find Liberals too left wing and Tories too right wing vote for him as a protest vote.

Also wondering if some Conservatives wish Trudeau kept his election promise on electoral reform as with PR a split would actually be in the Tories' benefit since whenever you merge two parties you never get the sum of both.  True it is unlikely they would get over 50% although if say Michael Chong split off and formed his own more moderate one it might be plausible of the three parties albeit still a stretch.

[mileslunn]

I fear that the People's Party is gonna split the vote and cause a Trudeau reelection...

I don't think it will have much impact as unlike the 90s, the Conservative base hates Trudeau with a passion, whereas they didn't loathe Chretien to the same degree they loathe Trudeau so they will coalesce behind whichever is stronger, almost certainly the Conservatives.  The Conservatives are more likely to lose due to inability to appeal to centrist swing voters not split on the right.  The bigger danger of Maxime Bernier's new party, is the Tories will move rightward to prevent a split and this will make them unacceptable to middle of the road swing voters thus hurting their chances of winning.  Never mind for Trudeau, Trump and Ford and likely Kenney by 2019 is a perfect trio Trudeau can whip the Tories with and claim voting Tory means you get what those three offer. 

[mileslunn]

She is from York Region, which is trending Conservative relative to the rest of the GTA.  She only won narrowly in the big red wave.

Also her riding went massively PC last June going 56% so this was probably one of the lowest hanging fruits for the Conservatives.  Not saying it is totally out of principle, but I think the Conservatives probably had a slight edge here to begin with.

[mileslunn]

Apparently Maxime Bernier's People's party has 33,000 members and is able to draw large crowds.  I am skeptical the party will go very far.  People may be split on whether we should have less or more government, but I don't think libertarianism is very popular.  Most seem to see it as only favouring the very rich thus making it a very tough sell.  As such I don't see his PPC going very far, but even if it only got 5-10% of the popular vote, that could cost the Tories a whole wack of seats thus guaranteeing an even bigger Liberal majority.  Also PPC gaining will probably force the Tories to move rightwards thus making it tougher for them to win over the Liberal-Tory swing votes they need to win.  On the other hand if Bernier attracts enough kookie candidates, they might end up being like the BC Conservatives or if they get little media attention could end up being like the Trilium Party in Ontario.  Both were expected to cause headaches for the Ontario PCs and BC Liberals yet neither materialized.

Mainstreet is now doing their quarterly provincial polls.  So far mixed results.

BC: Referendum like with insights West looks to be a nail biter so depends heavily on turnout.  Older voters generally favour FTFP and are more likely to vote, but those who want to change to PR are more passionate about it thus might be more inclined to vote.  BC Liberals have a very narrow lead, but considering BC Conservative support it is likely under FTFP things are looking good for the BC Liberals.  Only thing that might help the NDP is John Horgan is more popular than Andrew Wilkinson so numbers could easily move.  If PR goes through then slight advantage NDP and NDP + Greens are just over 50%, but no matter who wins neither side has a lock.  Besides I expect the government to last until 2021 so lots can change.

Alberta:  As mentioned elsewhere, big UCP lead so they are heavy favourites and unless they screw up badly, will likely win next year.

Ontario: Unlike other polls, PCs still have a strong lead although with no election until 2022, polls are meaningless at this point.

New Brunswick - MQO: It appears recent drama has helped the Greens dramatically, helped the PCs slightly, while hurt the Liberals and had no impact on People's Alliance.

PEI: Both polls show a tight three way race so anyone's game.

Nova Scotia - MQO: Liberals have slight lead, but with an election not until 2021 still plenty of time for things to change.

Newfoundland & Labrador: Liberals in lead so in good shape to win re-election next year, but PCs not totally out of it, but have an uphill battle.  Will likely form a stronger opposition, but need to up their game to win outright. 

Still waiting to see what is in store in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Quebec.  My guess is Saskatchewan Party and Manitoba PCs are in the lead, but not as big as what they got in 2016, but we shall see.  Quebec just had their election so will be interesting to see if Legault gets any bounce here.

[mileslunn]

Interestingly enough Campaign research in Ontario has 34% PC, 32% Liberal, and 25% NDP so more in line with Innovative than Mainstreet research.  Only caveat I have with the poll is over half sampled are in the 416 although I suspect they weight it.  In 416 it is 37% Liberal to 30% PC which seems plausible, but in 905 belt it is 38% PC to 32% Liberal while rest of Ontario 40% PC, 27% NDP, and 21% Liberal so doesn't quite seem to add up since 416 is under 25% of the population so using 25% in 416, 25% in 905 and 50% elsewhere I get 37% PC and 28% Liberal, but whichever one you want to believe it is clear Ford is not enjoying a honeymoon and more dislike him than like while the Liberals with Wynne gone are rebounding, it is just a question of how much while NDP doesn't seem to benefitting.  On the minimum wage hike, both show similar numbers with a slim majority opposing his decision to cancel the hike to $15/hour, but still over 40% supporting it.  Either way with no election until 2022, I suspect you will get a fair bit of variation.  Either way all post election polls show the PCs ahead but generally below what they got on e-day, Liberals rebounding, and NDP falling a bit.  With the government less than six months old, not a very good start, but Ford was always a very polarizing figure so hard to say if numbers will shift or perhaps he is simply the type you either love (a minority around 35%) or hate (around 60%).

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/MaximeBernier/status/1095333349227409408

https://twitter.com/MaximeBernier/status/1095378261096378368

Mad Max....... Why would you say this?? Not the right kind of attention the PPC needs.

He has no chance of winning, he wants to appeal to 5-10% of the population who are racists so he is going after that group.  I don't think his goal is to ever be PM, rather he is bitter he lost the Conservative leadership race and so wants to ensure Scheer never becomes PM thus laying a trap for him; stay moderate and risk a split on the right like the 90s, or move rightward to appeal to PPC supporters and scare away the key swing voters he needs to win.