Please note that although KY has a plurality of registered Democrats, many of these voters have been voting Republican for high-level offices in general elections over the past several decades. In fact, here are some percentages of Democrats who voted for Republican candidates in recent general elections, based on exit polls:
2000-Pres: 25%
2003-Gov: 24%
2004-Pres: 28%
2004-Sen: 18%
2008-Pres: 30%
2008-Sen: 24%
2010-Sen: 16%
2014-Sen: 17%
2016-Pres: 22%
2016-Sen: 15%
It is these percentages which contribute significantly to Republican blowouts in recent KY statewide races.
I guess that Bevin will do around Conway's margin.