IL-12: Plummer with a large lead

[krazen1211]

http://capitolfax.com/2012/07/16/poll-has-plummer-up-by-11-points-and-he-still-wont-release-tax-returns/


A new poll taken last week has downstate Republican congressional candidate Jason Plummer leading his latest Democratic challenger by 11 points in a district that was designed to re-elect U.S. Rep. Jerry Costello.

The poll, taken July 9 by We Ask America, found Plummer ahead of Democrat Bill Enyart 45 percent to 34 percent. The automated poll of 1,510 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percent.





The GOP continues on the path to break the vicious gerrymander of the Illinois Congressional districts.

[Miles]

Great, I'm sure you and the 6 or 7 regular posters over at RRH must be overjoyed.

[krazen1211]

What put you in such a foul mood?

[Miles]

What put you in such a foul mood?

Oh, I'm in a great mood.

'Enjoying my summer, working on my election maps...I'm happy as a can be!

[Miles]

Are you in a good mood, krazen? Despite our partisan-derived clashes on here, I do hope you're doing well.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

krazen, I trust you're wishing Democratic candidates luck in states like Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

[Miles]

krazen, I trust you're wishing Democratic candidates luck in states like Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

Don't forget North Carolina. We'll take as much luck as we can get there.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

krazen, I trust you're wishing Democratic candidates luck in states like Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

Don't forget North Carolina. We'll take as much luck as we can get there.

I foresaw krazen pointing out the 2002-12 Democratic gerrymander in that case (I started the tit-for-tat, so it's kind of unfair to expect him not to engage in it if given the opportunity), but yeah, definitely North Carolina too.

[Zioneer]

krazen, I trust you're wishing Democratic candidates luck in states like Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

Don't forget North Carolina. We'll take as much luck as we can get there.

And Utah; we need it more than any other state besides maybe Wyoming.

[krazen1211]

krazen, I trust you're wishing Democratic candidates luck in states like Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

Well, I do wish them luck. It takes a combination of luck, skill, and of course the outrage of the voter base to break a vicious gerrymander.

But it seems like the Democrats do not want to bother with the skill portion of this trifecta as they have not bothered to recruit quality candidates.

And yes, Miles, I am in a perfectly good mood. Thanks for asking!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

krazen, I trust you're wishing Democratic candidates luck in states like Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

Well, I do wish them luck. It takes a combination of luck, skill, and of course the outrage of the voter base to break a vicious gerrymander.

All right then.

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That's a matter of interpretation, as I personally don't see what's so 'quality' about some of these Republican candidates. Apparently the voters in their districts do, which is obviously more important and relevant, but I personally don't.

[Miles]

In krazen's defense, I do think the GOP has a better candidate in this district.

[krazen1211]

krazen, I trust you're wishing Democratic candidates luck in states like Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

Well, I do wish them luck. It takes a combination of luck, skill, and of course the outrage of the voter base to break a vicious gerrymander.

All right then.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's a matter of interpretation, as I personally don't see what's so 'quality' about some of these Republican candidates. Apparently the voters in their districts do, which is obviously more important and relevant, but I personally don't.

Well, in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and even for that matter Illinois, the quality comes from being incumbents with a fundraising advantage. The GOP has been lucky in Illinois to have incumbents in the most competitive lean D districts, while, for example, North Carolina Democrats Miller and Shuler, New Jersey Democrat Rothman, and Texas Democrat Doggett decided to simply yield.

[Miles]

krazen, I trust you're wishing Democratic candidates luck in states like Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.

Well, I do wish them luck. It takes a combination of luck, skill, and of course the outrage of the voter base to break a vicious gerrymander.

All right then.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's a matter of interpretation, as I personally don't see what's so 'quality' about some of these Republican candidates. Apparently the voters in their districts do, which is obviously more important and relevant, but I personally don't.

Well, in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and even for that matter Illinois, the quality comes from being incumbents with a fundraising advantage. The GOP has been lucky in Illinois to have incumbents in the most competitive lean D districts, while, for example, North Carolina Democrats Miller and Shuler, New Jersey Democrat Rothman, and Texas Democrat Doggett decided to simply yield.

Doggett is still running. They turned TX-25 into a 57% McCain seat, IIRC; no way he was going to win that.

[DrScholl]

Republicans have about as much chance of defying the gerrymander as Democrats have of doing so in states where Republican drew the map, which is not very much at all.

We Ask America leans very Republican and it's suspect that a Democrat would only get 34% in a 55% Obama district. I wouldn't start counting chickens yet.

[krazen1211]

Republicans have about as much chance of defying the gerrymander as Democrats have of doing so in states where Republican drew the map, which is not very much at all.

We Ask America leans very Republican and it's suspect that a Democrat would only get 34% in a 55% Obama district. I wouldn't start counting chickens yet.

Well, given that you yourself predicted that 2 targeted Democrats out of 4 would survive the upcoming election, that is a very good chance indeed. 50/50, in fact.

Price (nothing they can really do to NC-4)
McIntyre (Fayetteville has to go somewhere)
Shuler (They could divide Ashville, but might not want to weaken McHenry)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This poll may be a bit optimistic for the GOP. Still, this is one of those seats that the Democrats should probably expect to lose.

[DrScholl]

Well, given that you yourself predicted that 2 targeted Democrats out of 4 would survive the upcoming election, that is a very good chance indeed. 50/50, in fact.

And your point is? That was my assessment before Republicans released their map, which was far more extreme than most expected. I'm certainly not predicting now that all Democrats in Republican drawn states will retain their seats, that wouldn't be realistic at all.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We Ask America does tend to have a big Republican lean.  While this should certainly be a competitive race, I suspect that the Democrats will end up holding it (although I could see the Republicans picking it up before the end of the decade).  Plummer is actually a much weaker candidate than he might appear on paper and there has been at least one noteworthy interview in which he came across as extremely inarticulate, confused, and ill-informed.  Also, Plummer may be benefiting from higher name recognition from the 2010 campaign, something that should change as Enyart becomes more well known.  I also haven't gotten a sense yet of how strong a campaigner Enyart is proving to be (it may be too early to say or maybe someone else can elaborate on this).  Lastly, we should remember that Harriman was the solid favorite over Plummer before he dropped out.  I think IL-12 is in some ways very similar to the IL-13 race, except the positions of the two parties are reversed.  I expect neither seat to change hands this cycle despite both being competitive races.  However, I could also easily see both seats changing hands before the end of the decade.

[minionofmidas]

Also, Plummer may be benefiting from higher name recognition from the 2010 campaign, something that should change as Enyart becomes more well known.  I also haven't gotten a sense yet of how strong a campaigner Enyart is proving to be. 

Given how shortly he's been in this race and what an unknown he is... definitely lots of room for improvement there, yeah.

[timothyinMD]

I love Obama's pathetic 45% approval in a district he carried 55% in.  Mark my words Obama will perform surprisingly weak in Illinois come November

[Miles]

I love Obama's pathetic 45% approval in a district he carried 55% in.  Mark my words Obama will perform surprisingly weak in Illinois come November

I actually agree with this. I don't think he'll crack 60% again, all else held constant. Maybe closer to 57/40-ish for Obama this time around.