New Tradesports rankings

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Current asking price for the IA and NH winners (yes, they add up to more than 100, as the ask and bid prices haven't converged yet):

They should add up to more than 100.  Otherwise you could buy some of each an be guaranteed to make money. 

Though they ordinarily would add to something around 105.  With a new contract, someone may be offering high ask prices on everyone, hoping that people simply want to get on the action.

If they add up to over 100, you could just short each, and make money.

[elcorazon]

problem is that they are independent markets and they are not that heavily traded.  This is why the numbers aren't as logical as they might be.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Richardson up a bit.
Giuliani down, McCain is now a bit ahead of him.
Large Gingrich surge, Hagel drops.

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 27.8
Gore 9.7
Edwards 7.6
Richardson 2.4
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Feingold 0.1

Republicans
McCain 29.5
Giuliani 27.0
Romney 17.7
Thompson 14.5
Gingrich 3.9
Hagel 2.6
Huckabee 2.3
Bloomberg 1.4
Rice 1.1
Brownback 0.5
Paul 0.5
T. Thompson 0.4
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[© tweed]

lol @ the McCain resurgence.  Of course, I'm rooting for him.  Hard.

[Boris]

lol @ the McCain resurgence.  Of course, I'm rooting for him.  Hard.

I'm rooting for Romney. If he's nominated, the Democratic Nominee might as well declare him/herself to be the President-elect, form a transitional team, and start naming cabinet positions.

[Mr. Morden]

McCain is now running ahead of Giuliani most of the time in the "odds to win the GOP nomination market", but is still behind him in the general election market, reflecting the market's belief that Giuliani is the better general election candidate.

Also, we've now had some transactions in the IA and NH markets.  Current prices:

IA
Clinton 38.0
Edwards 38.0
Obama 15.0
Gore 8.0

Giuliani 28.0
McCain 24.0
Thompson 24.0
Romney 20.0

NH
Clinton 58.0
Obama 20.0
Edwards 14.0
Gore 10.0

Giuliani 35.0
McCain 27.0
Romney 25.0
Thompson 14.0

[Reignman]

I'm surprised McCain has recovered so much.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

lol @ the McCain resurgence.  Of course, I'm rooting for him.  Hard.

^^^^^^^

[Eraserhead]

McCain is now running ahead of Giuliani most of the time in the "odds to win the GOP nomination market", but is still behind him in the general election market, reflecting the market's belief that Giuliani is the better general election candidate.

Also, we've now had some transactions in the IA and NH markets.  Current prices:

IA
Clinton 38.0
Edwards 38.0
Obama 15.0
Gore 8.0

Giuliani 28.0
McCain 24.0
Thompson 24.0
Romney 20.0

NH
Clinton 58.0
Obama 20.0
Edwards 14.0
Gore 10.0

Giuliani 35.0
McCain 27.0
Romney 25.0
Thompson 14.0

Those seem a little wacky.

[Speed of Sound]

McCain is now running ahead of Giuliani most of the time in the "odds to win the GOP nomination market", but is still behind him in the general election market, reflecting the market's belief that Giuliani is the better general election candidate.

Also, we've now had some transactions in the IA and NH markets.  Current prices:

IA
Clinton 38.0
Edwards 38.0
Obama 15.0
Gore 8.0

Giuliani 28.0
McCain 24.0
Thompson 24.0
Romney 20.0

NH
Clinton 58.0
Obama 20.0
Edwards 14.0
Gore 10.0

Giuliani 35.0
McCain 27.0
Romney 25.0
Thompson 14.0

Those seem a little wacky.

Yeah, theyre gonna for a little while. Just let the betters set into the game for a little bit and then see whats going on. For the first few weeks theres really no point in even considering these #s.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary gains a bit.
McCain drops and Giuliani rises, to end up tied.
Flavor of a month or two ago Thompson goes down a bit.

Democrats
Clinton 52.1
Obama 27.7
Gore 9.9
Edwards 7.7
Richardson 2.2
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
McCain 28.0
Giuliani 28.0
Romney 18.2
Thompson 13.9
Gingrich 3.8
Hagel 2.7
Huckabee 2.3
Bloomberg 1.3
Rice 1.1
Paul 0.5
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
J. Bush 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Democrats running
Clinton 52.1
Obama 27.7
Edwards 7.7
Richardson 2.2
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kucinch 0
Gravel 0

Democrats not running
Gore 9.9
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans running
McCain 28.0
Giuliani 28.0
Romney 18.2
Huckabee 2.3
Paul 0.5
Brownback 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Gilmore 0

Republicans not running
Thompson 13.9
Gingrich 3.8
Hagel 2.7
Bloomberg 1.3
Rice 1.1
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
Powell 0.1

[Reignman]

I think at this point Fred Thompson's odds will keep going down unless he declares.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton, Obama, and Gore go up a bit. Edwards goes down.
Richardson has a significant drop.

Giuliani gains and takes the lead.

Democrats
Clinton 52.8
Obama 28.2
Gore 10.6
Edwards 7.0
Richardson 1.5
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 30.0
McCain 27.6
Romney 17.9
Thompson 14.4
Gingrich 3.8
Hagel 2.7
Huckabee 2.3
Bloomberg 1.3
Rice 1.1
Paul 0.4
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
J. Bush 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Winning individual

Percentage
Clinton 42.0
Obama 17.3
Giuliani 14.8
McCain 14.0
Thompson 9.7
Gore 8.4
Romney 8.3
Edwards 3.6
Allen 0.3

Odds
Allen infinity%
Clinton 80%
Gore 79%
Thompson 67%
Obama 61%
Edwards 51%
McCain 50%
Giuliani 49%
Romney 46.4%

[Mr. Morden]

Romney has now surged all the way to 21.0 (which is, I think, an all time high for him), which I'm guessing is due at least in part to his surge in IA and NH polls.

Meanwhile, McCain gives back some of his recent gains, by dropping to 24.6.

We now have three GOP candidates whose Intrade odds to win the nomination are between 20 and 30%, which makes it remarkably wide open.

[Reignman]

With Giuliani ahead of McCain and Richardson at 1.5, I believe Tradesports has regained some sanity.

[Padfoot]

With Giuliani ahead of McCain and Richardson at 1.5, I believe Tradesports has regained some sanity.

Anything that includes Gore in the top tier is insane especially after his recent statements in a Time interview.

[Reignman]

With Giuliani ahead of McCain and Richardson at 1.5, I believe Tradesports has regained some sanity.

Anything that includes Gore in the top tier is insane especially after his recent statements in a Time interview.

Gore almost definitely won't run (and he's overrated on tradesports), but if he DID, you'd see his tradesports rating go way up.

[Verily]

With Giuliani ahead of McCain and Richardson at 1.5, I believe Tradesports has regained some sanity.

Anything that includes Gore in the top tier is insane especially after his recent statements in a Time interview.

Gore almost definitely won't run (and he's overrated on tradesports), but if he DID, you'd see his tradesports rating go way up.

Which is stupid. Even if he ran, I don't think he'd get the nomination at this point, and he certainly shouldn't be above 2.0 right now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards and Richardson gain at Gore and Clinton's expenses.
McCain tanks again. Giuliani falls a bit. Romney and Thompson gain, but are still 3rd and 4th place.

Democrats
Clinton 51.2
Obama 28.4
Gore 9.8
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 2.5
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 28.1
McCain 23.4
Romney 20.0
Thompson 16.6
Gingrich 3.7
Hagel 2.6
Huckabee 2.6
Bloomberg 1.1
Rice 1.1
Paul 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

The McCain-Romney gap continues to narrow, as it's now:

McCain 22.5
Romney 20.6

And Romney has now moved into second place in the odds to win NH primary market:

Giuliani 35
Romney 33
McCain 27
Thompson 14

though the volume is still very low.

Romney is doing pitifully in the "winning individual" market however.

[Reignman]

Romney is doing pitifully in the "winning individual" market however.

Makes sense. I don't think he does so poorly matched up against Dems in the general election just because he has lame name ID.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Richardson down a bit.

McCain continues tanking and Thompson has a significant gain. Those 2 and Romney are now basically in a 3 way tie for 2nd place.
McCain is close to his low since 2005. Thompson and Romney are close to record highs.
Bloomberg tanks.

Democrats
Clinton 51.5
Obama 28.4
Gore 9.8
Edwards 7.4
Richardson 2.1
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.1
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 28.5
McCain 20.1
Romney 20.0
Thompson 19.9
Gingrich 3.3
Hagel 2.3
Huckabee 2.3
Rice 1.0
Paul 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
T. Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

McCain:

[Mr. Morden]

So which of the following do you expect to happen first (if they happen at all)?

- F. Thompson odds to win GOP nomination surpasses Edwards odds to win Dem. nomination

- Gore odds to win Dem. nomination surpasses Romney odds to win GOP nomination

- Romney odds to win GOP nomination surpasses McCain odds to win GOP nomination

- Gore odds to win the general election surpasses McCain odds to win the general election

The first, followed by the second. The third won't happen and the fourth would only happen if Gore actually announces he's running (he won't).

Well, the third has in fact happened.  Romney odds to win the nomination has surpassed McCain odds to win the nomination.  And Fred Thompson has surpassed both of them.  Present odds:

Giuliani 29.1
Thompson 23.8
Romney 20.6
McCain 20.2